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AI Quantification - Solana (SOL) fell 38% monthly, three pictures point out the typical bearish pattern

Anatoly 2026-3-16 22:21 77262人围观 SOL

Quantification is to be friends with time. I am Haili, focusing on quantitative development for many years, digital currency, gold foreign exchange, futures crude oil, etc., can be an agent, and can be OEM. If you want to cuddle up for warmth, or if you h


Quantification is about making friends with time

I am Haili. I have been focusing on quantitative development for many years. I can be an agent or OEM for digital currency, gold foreign exchange, futures and crude oil, etc. If you want to cuddle up for warmth, or if you have any questions or need consultation, please feel free to send us a private message!

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Solana's SOL has fallen 38% over the past 30 days, hitting a two-year low of $67 on Friday. Many analysts said that the decline of this cryptocurrency, which ranks seventh in market capitalization, is not over yet, and the target can be as low as $30.

Key points:

  • Solana’s head and shoulders pattern points to SOL price at $50 or lower.

  • The MVRV band shows that it may be near a bottom, but support at $75 must hold.



SOL/USD weekly chart. Source: Coitelegraph/TradingView

SOL targets $42 after bearish confirmation



SOL prices have fallen by more than 72% since the cycle high of about $295 in January 2025. In the process, its price confirmed a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern on multiple time frames.

Crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus shared a chart showing SOL confirming the H&S pattern, suggesting there is still room for the downside.

“SOL has confirmed a breakout from this macro head and shoulders pattern,” Bitcoinsensus posted on X on Monday, adding:
“The price target could be as low as $50 per SOL.



SOL/USD weekly chart. Source: X/Bitcoinsensus


“This is a classic head and shoulders pattern with a calculated moving target of $45,” said analyst Nextiscrypto, referring to SOL’s two-week candlestick. But other analysts believe prices could fall even lower.

The pseudonymous analyst "Shitpoastin" pointed out that Solana's price has formed a monthly-level "large head and shoulders" pattern in the past two years. "The support below reaches the $30 line, and there is no real support for the time being." ”



Source: X/Shitpoastin


At the same time, the K-line on the second day shows that the SOL price has fallen below the H&S neckline of $120 on January 30.



SOL/USD two-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView


The H&S pattern’s calculated target (distance from the break plus the height of the top) is $57, implying a 32% decline from current levels.

SOL’s MVRV Band Provides Hope for $75 Bottom



When SOL plunged last week, it was supported by the lowest boundary of its market value to realized value (MVRV) extreme deviation pricing band, which is currently at $75.

These bands show the range when the SOL price was below or above the average price of the last time traders moved their coin.



SOL MVRV deviates extremely from the pricing band. Source: Glassnode


Historically, SOL prices tend to drop to levels near the lowest MVRV band or even lower before bottoming out.

This includes March 2022, when SOL price tested the lowest MVRV of $75 and then rebounded 87% to $140 in three weeks after deviating from the band. A similar recovery also occurred in December 2020.

However, SOL, which was associated with the FTX crash in November 2022, fell sharply below this band. In December of that year, the price fell by 70%, finally bottoming out near $7.

Therefore, if SOL falls below $75, it may trigger the next correction like in 2022, consistent with the head and shoulders target.

Risk warning: The above content is for reference only and is intended to disseminate more information. It does not constitute any investment advice. Be sure to increase your risk awareness.

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