BTC fell below the 70,000 life-and-death line, ETH fluctuated within a narrow range | The weekend market change window, the long and short decisive battle is about to begin

Nakamoto 2026-3-24 01:09 38970人围观 BTC

Core overview: At the beginning of the Asia-Pacific trading session on March 21, 2026, Beijing time, Bitcoin directly fell below the integer mark of 70,000 US dollars, reaching a minimum of 69,200 US dollars. Bulls and shorts fought fiercely around the ke

Core quick overview: At the beginning of the Asia-Pacific trading session on March 21, 2026, Beijing time, Bitcoin fell directly below the integer mark of US$70,000, hitting a minimum of US$69,200, and bulls and bears were fighting fiercely around the key price.； Ethereum simultaneously fluctuated within a narrow range between $2,100 and $2,150, and market sentiment was extremely cautious. Liquidity is low over the weekend. Once the direction is confirmed, the fluctuations may be greatly amplified. Retail investors must strictly control their positions and do a good job in risk control!

Recently, the crypto market has completely fallen into the "long-short conflict". There is no refreshment of unilateral market, only the suffering of repeated market washing. On the one hand, the cost line of long-term holders is firmly supported by the bottom, and the chip acceptance is not weak. ； On the other side, there is macro-negative pressure, concentrated selling by ancient whales, and selling pressure hanging overhead at all times.

In particular, Bitcoin's $70,000 mark is no longer a mere price point, but a dual life-and-death line between the market's psychological defense line and technical aspects. Once it is completely lost over the weekend, there is a high probability that programmed serial selling will be triggered in the future.； Ethereum is also stuck at a key support level, and a slight break will open up room for a deeper correction. Let’s give you the following analysis based on the latest on-chain data, technical forms and macro environment.

1. Bitcoin: The 70,000 mark is lost, a life-and-death showdown between bulls and bears

1. Current market situation: The psychological dam of 70,000 is in crisis, and the risk of technical breakthroughs has soared

At the beginning of the Asia-Pacific session early this morning, BTC bulls completely lost the $70,000 defense line. The quotes on mainstream exchanges once dropped to around $69,200, and then rebounded slightly but always hovered below 70,000. The bulls' counterattack was extremely weak.

Technically, the previously long-standing upward channel and rising wedge pattern has been confirmed to have fallen below, which means that the short-term buyer's power has completely exhausted. The market rebounded to the moving average position near $70,485 many times, but was suppressed by large selling orders, showing no signs of stabilizing.

The most critical risk point: If this week's closing price fails to recover strongly above $70,000, the technical breakthrough will be completely confirmed. Combined with low market liquidity on weekends, it is easy to trigger programmed selling in quantitative funds and contract markets, triggering a chain decline. This is currently the biggest minefield.

2. Signal on the chain: The ancient whale leaves the market, new funds take over against the trend, and the chips are exchanged.

This wave of decline is not a unilateral bearishness, but a typical deep change of old and new capital chips. The data on the chain revealed two completely opposite key signals:

Negative selling pressure: The ancient whales have concentrated on cashing out. Many "Bitcoin veteran whales" who have held positions for more than 10 years have recently intensively transferred funds to exchanges and sold. Just one whale who started holding positions in 2013 directly sold 1,000 BTC this week, which is equivalent to more than 71.6 million US dollars. ； Early investors also sold 650 BTC simultaneously. This type of long-term holding chips were cashed out, which had a huge impact on market sentiment.
Positive support: The new giant whale bucked the trend and bought the bottom. When the market panic spread, large funds were monitored on the chain to go long against the trend: the well-known giant whale directly opened a long position of 2601.5 BTC at an average price of 70,016 US dollars, involving more than 183 million US dollars, betting on the technical recovery after a short-term oversold.

Core interpretation: The area around US$70,000 happens to be the key cost range for long-term holders of Bitcoin. Therefore, while selling pressure occurs, acceptance orders continue to enter the market. The market is not completely bearish, but is completing a chip reshuffle. The subsequent direction depends entirely on weekend capital selection.

3. Macro + Derivatives: Risk aversion is full, and bearish sentiment reaches a new high.

The external macro environment has completely suppressed risk assets and become the biggest stumbling block to the rise of BTC:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to ferment, and international oil prices continue to rise, directly pushing up U.S. inflation expectations； CME interest rate tools show that the market’s probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in April has soared from 0% to 12%. Interest rate hike expectations have picked up, creating a fatal suppression on high-risk assets such as crypto.
Bearish sentiment in the options market is overwhelming, with the put/call open interest ratio climbing to 0.77, a new high since June 2021! A large number of traders are frantically buying put options for downside protection, which is enough to show how strong the concerns of institutions and large investors are about the subsequent decline.

4. BTC weekend long and short script, direct comparison operation

Fall scenario (currently more likely)

Trigger conditions: The price has never been able to recover US$70,000, and rebounded to around US$71,000 and directly encountered resistance and fell back.
Downward target: After effectively falling below 70,000, the first support is $68,000； If panic spreads, there is a high probability that it will slide to the $63,000-65,000 range, which is completely consistent with the theoretical target after the upward channel breaks.
Key warning: The US$66,000 highlighted by analysts is the last line of defense. Once it falls, it may usher in a deep correction of 10%-20%.

Rebound script (needs favorable catalyst)

Trigger conditions: A sudden positive event occurred over the weekend, with the price firmly standing above $71,500 and breaking through the 50-period moving average.
Upward target: After breaking through the resistance level of $75,000, it is expected to challenge the previous high of $88,000-90,000

2. Ethereum: $2,100 is in danger, with shocks waiting for direction

As of March 21, ETH was quoted at about US$2,150, up slightly by 0.83% in 24 hours, and fluctuated within a narrow range of US$2,100-2,150. The trend was much weaker than the previous period. It was unable to rise but could not accept the fall, and fell into a typical turbulent deadlock.

This week, ETH once soared to $2,390, a new high since early February, but then fell back quickly, never breaking through the on-chain average cost level near $2,310. This position has always been a selling point after a weak rise. This fall also completely verified the effectiveness of this technical pressure.

1. On-chain data: Selling pressure eases, but upward momentum is completely insufficient

Good news: The selling pressure on whales has cooled significantly. CryptoQuant data shows that the top 10 ETH wallets transferred only 135,000 pieces to the exchange, which is far lower than the previous historical peak of more than 1 million pieces. The short-term moving average has stabilized, and the pressure of large-scale selling has been significantly relieved.
Good news: Institutions continue to accumulate Ethereum treasury company BitMine Immersion. This week, they directly bought 60,999 ETH, with total holdings rising to 4.59 million, accounting for 3.8% of the total global supply.； Medium wallets holding 10,000-100,000 ETH are also continuing to accumulate in batches.
Neutral bias is good: Pledged funds entered the market on March 20, and 25,000 ETH (about 54.14 million US dollars) were transferred to the beacon chain pledge contract. The circulation volume was passively reduced, indicating that some large investors turned to medium and long-term holdings and no longer played short-term games.

2. Funding is negative: ETF funds reverse and risk appetite declines

The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF, which had had net inflows for six consecutive days, suddenly turned around in the past two days, with a net outflow of approximately US$192 million. Institutional capital sentiment instantly turned cautious.； Superimposed on geopolitical influences, ETH, as a high-beta asset, tends to fall more than BTC, and the risk cannot be underestimated.

The contract market is also light, with about 39 million US dollars in liquidation in 24 hours, and long liquidation accounting for more than 50%. The market leverage continues to adjust, and there is no intention to take the initiative to attack. They are all waiting for changes in the market.

3. Technical aspect: The key support is tight and the short pattern has not changed.

The current price of ETH is running below the three moving averages of 50, 100 and 200 days. All moving averages are sloping downward, which is a typical short position. Any rebound will be suppressed by the moving averages and will be difficult to sustain.

Core support: $2,110 (coinciding with the 20-day EMA), which is the most important defensive line at present. Once it effectively falls below, the two major supports of $1,740 and $1,524 will be directly looked at below.
Upper resistance: The first resistance is $2,390 (this week’s high), and it is expected to challenge $2,746 after breaking through.
Momentum indicator: RSI is hovering near 50, the long and short kinetic energy is balanced, the stochastic indicator has fallen back, the upward momentum is insufficient, and there is no clear reversal signal.

4. ETH long and short script & practical strategy

🐻 Fall scenario (high probability)

Trigger conditions: Falling below the $2110-2150 shock range and completely falling below the 20-day EMA support
Downward target: The first target is $1,740, and if panic intensifies, it will test $1,524.

🐂 Bounce back script (requires catalyst)

Triggering conditions: ETF returns, geopolitical situation eases, price recovers strongly at US$2,390
Upward target: $2,746 after a breakthrough, and above $3,000 in the medium and long term.

3. Personal practical suggestions

Risk warning: The market liquidity is poor on weekends, and fluctuations are easily amplified. Operations with heavy or full positions are strictly prohibited. Be sure to bring a stop loss, and do not bet on one side or carry a single position!

Bitcoin operation ideas

Short term: Don’t blindly buy the bottom below 70,000 US dollars. If it rebounds to 70,500-71,000 US dollars, you can test short positions if you are under pressure. Stop loss is 71,500 US dollars.； If it stands above 70,000, follow up with long orders
Medium and long term: The range of 63,000-65,000 US dollars can be deployed in batches. It is close to the cost line of long-term holders and has a high safety margin.

Ethereum operation ideas

Short-term: Sell high and buy low in the range of 2110-2160 US dollars. If it falls below 2100 US dollars, stop the loss directly and do not want to fight.
Medium and long term: Build positions in batches below US$2,000, below the institutional cost line of US$2,310, with medium-term allocation value

The crypto market is currently in a critical window for weekend changes. The BTC mark of 70,000 and the support of ETH of $2,100 are the core points that determine the short-term trend. There is no eternal bull market, nor is there an absolute bear market. Only by following the trend and strictly controlling risks can we survive in the volatile market.

The next 24-48 hours will be the market decision period. Everyone will focus on the closing price and large capital movements. If there are any sudden changes, we will follow up and interpret them as soon as possible.

⚠️ Risk warning: The content of this article is only market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Contract trading risks are extremely high. Be sure to strictly control positions, set stop losses, invest rationally, and be responsible for your own profits and losses.