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Market sentiment drops to freezing point and technical signals are dangerous.  The emergence of the technical form of ETH's weekly dead cross has made the entire crypto market hold its breath. When the long-term moving average crosses the short-term moving average downward, it usually means that the market is experiencing an important turning point. Like the calm before the storm, the dead cross often indicates that greater fluctuations are coming.  Recent market data is indeed concerning. The price of ETH has deviated from the 30-day moving average by 15.2%, and the trading volume has increased by 23% during the decline. The MACD indicator is entangled below the zero axis, showing that the market is extremely weak. Behind these numbers, countless investors are anxiously waiting and watching.  Will history repeat itself? Where is the key support level? Looking back on March this year, ETH plummeted from the top 20 to 70. At that time, the whales barely escaped the fate of liquidation by relying on oracles. Now, similar technological forms have appeared again, making people wonder: Will it be different this time? From a technical analysis perspective, if the dead cross is confirmed, ETH may test the key support level of $1,500. This position is not only a psychological threshold, but also a stop loss area set by many quantitative models. But the market is always full of surprises. There is a 45% probability that ETH will refuse the dead cross and instead test the 88100-90000 pressure zone upwards. Remember: in the crypto market, technical indicators are tools, not prophecies. They can tell you about market sentiment, but they cannot predict the future. Buy the dip or wait and see? this is a problem ""Others are fearful and I am greedy" is a saying that has been quoted repeatedly in the currency circle, but there are very few people who can actually do it. The question now is: is the current market panic an opportunity or a trap?  In the short term, ETH has formed a volatile range near $4,120. The negative daily MACD histogram is shrinking, showing some signs of strengthening. However, the daily rebound has not yet reached the previous high of 4250, and there is still a risk of a correction in the short term. For investors who want to buy the bottom, it is recommended to focus on the support level near $4,060, which is what many analysts believe is the short-term bottom area. Important reminder: Do not invest all your money at once. Building positions in batches is the best way to control risk, especially in this highly volatile market environment. The Dilemma and Hope of Altcoins While mainstream currencies like ETH and BTC are struggling, the altcoin market is even more miserable. Some people describe the current altcoin market as "a stagnant pool of water." This statement is not an exaggeration. But it’s worth noting that there are still opportunities for quality altcoins. Projects that are listed on mainstream exchanges and have practical application scenarios will often be the first to rebound when the market picks up. PYTH is an example. After the U.S. Department of Commerce selected it for on-chain economic data verification, the price skyrocketed by 1.2 times. Altcoin Investment Strategy: Only projects listed on mainstream exchanges will be considered Pay attention to altcoins with practical applications and institutional endorsements Strictly control positions, altcoin positions should not exceed 20% of total investment What will the market do next? Predicting market movements is always challenging, especially in such a highly uncertain environment. According to technical analysis, ETH faces two possible trends: The first scenario (55% probability): The death cross is confirmed and the support level of 77,000 is tested downward, and ETH may follow to fall to around $1,500. The second scenario (probability 45%): Reject the dead cross, rebound to test the 88100-90000 pressure zone, and ETH may rise back to the $4250-4280 range.  No matter which scenario occurs, risk management should be top of mind for investors. Setting stop losses, controlling position size, and maintaining adequate cash reserves are all effective strategies for dealing with market fluctuations. Final advice to investors In this time of uncertainty, the most important thing is to remain calm and rational. Don’t be dominated by fear or greed, develop a clear investment plan and stick to it. If you are a long-term investor, the current market correction may provide a good entry opportunity. But if you are a short-term trader, you need to be more cautious and wait for clearer market signals. Remember, the market will always recover, the key is whether you can survive the storm and face the next bull market. Now is not the time to panic, but the time to calmly analyze and make prudent decisions.   |
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