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Today, it is another day, Solana (SOL) is trading at about $186, down about 3.5% in the past 24 hours. The current price has fallen below the 20-day moving average ($191.32) and the 50-day moving average ($209.53), but is still holding above the 200-day moving average ($179.25). This technical structure suggests that SOL is facing selling pressure in the short term, but the longer-term trend is not completely broken yet. Core technology signal analysis 1. Long and short key price levels · Resistance levels: $190-195 (20-day moving average and psychological mark), $202 (dynamic resistance of Ichimoku Kijun line). · Support levels: $185 (the area where the 200-day moving average coincides with the previous low), $170 (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level). · Current Focus: If the price falls below the $185 support, it may accelerate towards $170； On the other hand, if it can break through $195, it may retest the $200-205 range. 2. Indicators and Momentum · MACD: It is below the zero line and shows a "strong sell" signal, but the histogram convergence indicates that selling pressure has weakened. · RSI: The reading is 43.42, which is in the neutral to weak zone, not oversold, and the rebound space is limited. · Trading volume: The recent decline was accompanied by a 25% increase in trading volume, confirming that the selling pressure has become substantial, but bargain hunting by giant whale addresses (such as the restart of activities by an address holding $4.37 million in SOL) may alleviate the downward trend. 3. Forms and cycles · SOL is in the cross defense zone between the "lower track of the ascending channel" and the "200-day moving average". · The 4-hour chart shows that the price fluctuates between $184 and $187, forming a contracting triangle, indicating that a direction is about to be chosen. --- Message dynamics and verification · Pros: · Institutional funds continue to flow into Solana ETF (net inflow of US$44 million in the past 4 days), and Western Union announced that it will issue US dollar stable coins in Solana. · On-chain activity hits new highs: Perpetual DEX transaction volume grew 93% quarterly, reaching $1.6 billion. · Negative risks: · The U.S. SEC postponed the Solana ETF decision until December, causing short-term buying to weaken. · The giant whale transferred a large amount of SOL (such as 350,000 pieces) to the exchange, increasing the selling pressure. Yesterday’s opinion verification: The previous analysis of "195-200 US dollars support is effective" has been falsified. Prices actually fell below this range, and institutional capital inflows failed to offset technical selling pressure, indicating that the strength of support needs to be viewed more cautiously in the short term. --- Operation strategy and risk control · Short term: · Mainly wait and see. If the price rebounds to the resistance zone of 190-195 US dollars and the momentum weakens, you can test short positions with a stop loss above US$200. · If it falls below $185, chase the short target of $170 and stop loss at $188. · Medium and long term: · The range for building positions in batches refers to 170-175 US dollars (strong support area) to avoid one-time heavy positions. · Stop loss is set below $165 to guard against the risk of trend reversal. · General risk control: · A single position should not exceed 10% of the total funds to avoid high leverage. · Pay attention to the BTC market trends and the progress of the Solana network upgrade (Alpenlow) in November. --- Summary and Outlook SOL's short-term technical outlook is bearish, and $185 has become the life and death line for long and short. Loss of discipline opens channel deep to $170 ； If it holds and rebounds above $195, it is expected to resume its upward trend. Although the news is good (ETF funding, ecological expansion), the risk of technical breakdown takes priority, and defense needs to be the main focus, waiting for the direction to be clear. All analysis in this article is for reference only, and you bear market risks at your own risk. The cryptocurrency market is unpredictable, so stay safe with more real-time guidance ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️  |
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