The market is always born in despair, rises in hesitation, and collapses in madness - and at this moment, ETH is standing at the crossroads of destiny. ”
Technical aspect: Only by understanding the charts can you seize opportunities.
The recent trend of ETH is like a "grinding machine": it jumps repeatedly between 3800-3920, unable to go up or down.
Key levels: 3920 is strong pressure and 3800 is strong support. At 7 o'clock this morning, it took advantage of Trump's good news to shoot up to 3920, but at 8:15 it was immediately hit by a giant whale and fell back to 3825.
Indicator signals:
RSI: The short-term RSI1 is close to the oversold zone, indicating that the decline may be nearing an end.
MACD: The DIF value is negative, but the MACD column line narrows, indicating that the downward momentum has weakened.
Bollinger Bands: The price is close to the lower track, and if it stabilizes, it may rebound to the middle track of 3860.
Novice tips:
When the box is oscillating, remember "the upper edge is short, the lower edge is long", and the stop loss is set at 30 points outside the box (such as below 3800, above 3920) to prevent false breakthroughs from "inserting pins"!
News: Who has the final say between the whale and the president?
Trump’s “mouth”:
In the morning, he said, "The stock market has reached new highs and there is no inflation." The market was instantly excited. But don’t forget, this person’s words are like a roller coaster – it may be reversed in the next second.
The "hand" of the giant whale:
At 8:18, a large account withdrew 20,000 ETH from Binance, suspected of repaying the Aave loan. This type of operation often indicates short-term selling pressure and directly hits the market!
Warning:
The news is the "catalyst", but the whale's actions are the "steering wheel". If retail investors blindly chase the rise and kill the fall, they will easily be cut to pieces!
Personal opinion: How will ETH go today?
My judgment:
The support of 3800 is extremely strong, and the probability of falling below is low. There is a high probability of rebounding to around 3860 during the day.
If it stands firm at 3860, it may test 3920 again； If it falls below 3780, be careful of the plunge to 3700!
The market always reverses when everyone is desperate. If a black swan emerges from the US tariff case tonight, will it be a disaster or an opportunity? I’ll give you the answer at the end of the article!
What should retail investors do?
Strategy:
Test long positions with light positions near 3800, test short positions near 3920, and stop loss at 30 points.
The position should not exceed 10% of the principal, leaving enough ammunition to deal with emergencies.
Mentality:
Don't be led by the news! Trump’s words are like “setting off fireworks”, just listen to them ； The whale's movement is the real signal.
study:
Common mistakes made by novices - chasing the rise and killing the fall, and betting heavily on the direction. Remember: preserving principal is more important than making money!
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