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The ETF Store President Nate Geraci predicts that the first batch of spot XRP ETFs will be launched within the next two weeks. This expectation is mainly based on the recent resolution of Ripple's legal dispute with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as well as market optimism about changes in the cryptocurrency regulatory environment. 1. Forecast background and market significance Nate Geraci noted that the SEC’s five-year lawsuit against Ripple came to an end three months ago, clearing a key hurdle for the approval of a spot XRP ETF. He believes that the launch of such ETFs will mark a fundamental change in the SEC's tough regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies, which can be called "the final death knell of anti-crypto regulators." This prediction is closely related to market dynamics: after the SEC gave up its appeal against Ripple in March 2025, the price of XRP rose by 10%, and Polymarket data shows that the market’s expected probability of XRP ETF being approved within 2025 has risen to 87%.  2. Regulatory progress and institutional trends The resolution of the SEC’s legal dispute with Ripple is the core driving force. In July 2023, the court ruled that XRP itself did not constitute a security (only direct sales by institutions may violate regulations), and the SEC officially gave up its appeal in 2025, clarifying XRP's non-security attributes. This result prompted multiple institutions to submit applications, including registered XRP ETF products such as Bitwise and WisdomTree. Market analysts believe that large asset management companies such as BlackRock may follow suit to further accelerate the approval process. 3. Potential Impact of XRP ETF If the spot XRP ETF is approved, investors can invest in XRP indirectly through traditional stock accounts without directly managing the tokens, lowering the operational threshold. Compared with Bitcoin ETFs, XRP ETFs face higher volatility and regulatory residual risks, but their practical value in the field of cross-border payments may attract institutional funds. In addition, the expansion of the Ripple ecosystem (such as the launch of the RLUSD stablecoin) may also enhance XRP's long-term value support. 4. Future challenges and uncertainties Despite the positive outlook, the SEC may impose additional requirements on ETF structures, such as strict custody schemes or liquidity guarantees. At the same time, XRP still needs to deal with global regulatory differences, for example, some countries may still regard it as a security. The market needs to pay attention to the SEC’s final approval details and the size of the first batch of ETFs. These factors will directly affect the price trend and market acceptance of XRP. |
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