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 Share your ideas here and only do things that are highly probable. Operate within your trading system, please bear the consequences. Warning, no leverage, no futures, no borrowing. September 22, the thirteenth day of August Nine months ago, BTC hit an all-time high of $19,891. Nine months ago, it was March 17, when the BTC price was $1,000. Fifteen days ago, the price briefly touched $1,300, and then plummeted 30% in the next ten days. Looking back at the seven days from January 3 to January 11, 2017, BTC also plummeted by 30%. US$1,100 to US$770, US$1,300 to US$1,000. Two consecutive 30% waterfalls occurred within 3 months. Where will you go? Can we foresee a magnificent weekly-level main rise after March? Can you exchange chips for funds at a relatively high level and keep your profits?  ETH K-line chart from 2016 to March 2017 When winter turned to spring in 2017, the price of ETH was still at the floor price of $11, and it had been languishing for more than a year. Yes, after hitting a high of $21 on June 16, 2016, the price of ETH has fallen by 47.93% for eight consecutive months, which is only one month shorter than the current nine months. At that time, ETH was not the second most popular person, and V God was just a little V at that time. For eight months, ETH, which can now issue stable coins, and is now recognized as a bargaining chip by project parties, was now despised by everyone, a waste that only fell but did not rise. This was only 18 months ago. It took 18 months to invest in real estate and houses, but I still haven’t gotten back my money yet. Who would have thought that the wind was blowing and the clouds were flying. From March to June 12, in less than 90 days, ETH tripled, tripled, and tripled, accumulating 30 times to reach a historical high of $400. The little prodigy became a god, and ETH took the second place. And with the skyrocketing ETH, the myth of Ouch has begun. The story of ETH is like a prince and a princess. After a year of suffering, they finally defeated the dragon and lived a happy life from then on. After only three months of happy life, the good days came to an end. Back-testing the historical data of ETH, June 18th was the day when ETH reached the top, and it was also the beginning of ETH’s growth far behind the slowest BTC. So far, ETH has the worst historical growth among the top 20 stocks by market capitalization, and there is data to prove it.  Big B network ETH to BTC trading pair. The cumulative decline in 460 days was 78.88%. The highest point on the left is June 12, 2017, ETH's new high of $412. In other words, after June 12, anyone who exchanges BTC for ETH will lose money. It’s not black ETH, all the above are objective data. In fact, when I figured it out for the first time, my brain circuit was reopened. Then in July and August, five articles were published in a row to remind that ETH had the worst historical increase. Later, we calculated the cumulative decline from the highest point to the present, and the rebound range from the lowest point of decline to the highest point of rebound. The results were all stocks ranked in the middle or lower among the top 20 in market capitalization.  I don’t care whether it will rise back in the future. The TPS of ETH is a few tenths of that of EOS. The performance of the two is an order of magnitude different. Although early cars often broke down and were unstable, cars have the potential to travel thousands of miles a day, with lower costs and higher efficiency. The limits of horse-drawn carriages have long been established. It was only a matter of time before cars replaced horse-drawn carriages. In the future, if there is a public chain with better performance than EOS, Benxie will also stand on it, but currently there is not one. Except for the efficiency indicator TPS, nothing else is important. No rebuttal accepted. Reading history can make you wise, but what is the value of looking back at history? If the time goes back to March 2017, how can we judge whether the future will rise or fall? How does the information reported by the media help the full-year 2017 earnings? Technical indicators, number of active addresses, large account transfers, big bosses’ speeches, institutional opinions, which information is so important that you will still remember it a year and a half later? I hope you and I are wasting our time on something valuable. I write articles at my desk every day, track various institutions, personal opinions, compare logical verification before and after backtesting, and discover the truth.
So what is the real logic? What exactly determines the price of BTC? Let’s look at the rise of XRP. First of all, among all public accounts in the market, no analyst has ever written about XRP prices. Because no retail investors have ever paid attention to the XRP market. This goes against the law that high-quality coins should have a good community foundation, high user attention, and high frequency of use. There is a saying in the Internet field that those who win diaosi will win the world. The core is to acquire a large number of ordinary users, and by acquiring traffic, they can make money. Tencent and Douyin have gained a large number of users, and users can enjoy the services of WeChat and Douyin without paying. After having hundreds of millions of users, the product can make a lot of money relying on traffic. XRP has the third largest market value in the world but its traffic is not on the ranking list. Among the 16 coins with a market value of more than 1 billion US dollars, LTC, XLM, XRM, DASH, XEM and XRP have the same low attention. Except for BCH, BNB, USDT and BTC, ETH, EOS, ADA, TRX, NEO and ETC are public chains and are very well-known. High-profile public chains and low-profile trading coins represented by XRP each account for half of the total market value. This detail is important. But no one ever analyzed it. The common feature of these coins is that no one cares about them but their market value is always high. Their market value is stable and ranked high and is much larger than the various coins that retail investors pay attention to. Just like there are students in every class who study well but are very low-key. They only remember the first place and the ones who make trouble. In the capital market, market value is everything. A large market value means that there are more funds retained in this project. In other words, there are more funds that recognize it. The logic that those who win the diaosi rule win the world is that each person invests one yuan, and if there are 100 million people, the market value will be 100 million yuan. Tencent’s market value is supported by primary school students across the country who exchange their pocket money for game skins, and junior high school students and high school students across the country who exchange their pocket money for memberships. Each transaction costs more than ten yuan or dozens of yuan. Because there are so many people, the total market value is very large. This is the way to play in the late Internet era. The ways to make big money have long been divided up, and you can only work hard to make every small amount of money. There is a story about filling a water glass, first put the big stone, then the small sand. The big stone is the early stage when the number is small and the capital is large, and the small sand is the late stage when the quantity is large and the capital is small. The Internet has reached an advanced stage where it is competing for every grain of sand, so Xiaomi self-operated stores have opened in villages and towns in fifth-tier cities, next to VIVO and OPPO stores, and the brands are listed with advertisements from Lenovo and Huawei. The recognition of many people with few funds is an early game, which shows that the current market value is small. The recognition of funds with less money and more people is a late-stage play, which shows that the current market value is large. As for the digital currency market, at what stage is it? It's certainly the early stages. It takes very little capital to control the market, and the key is because the market cap of the coin itself is very small. The entire market is 120 billion US dollars. In the financial market, it is just a baby. XRP has a market capitalization of US$20 billion, and the recent influx of funds has amounted to billions of US dollars. This has nothing to do with the average increase in funds of tens of thousands of yuan for retail investors, but depends on a few large funds. Therefore, the situation created is that XRP took the lead to double when not many retail investors paid attention to it and would not hold it. The reason why it can achieve a substantial rise in a short period of time is that the incremental funds are much larger than the market itself, and at the same time, the incremental funds have nothing to do with retail investors. So the inspiration given by XRP’s rise 1. The digital currency market is in its early stages. 2. The reason why XRP’s market value has always remained at the forefront but received little attention is that the market value depends on a small number of large funds and not on the majority of retail investors. These two items also apply to BTC. 1% of BTC holders can determine the price of the entire market. This is a market where the minority determines the majority, an elite game. Precisely because the market depends on the large capital of a few people, not the small capital of the many. Therefore, Dongxie concluded that the price of BTC has nothing to do with market sentiment, and there is no need to pay attention to the mood and atmosphere in the group. If you want to lose it, it will only take a matter of minutes for the top 100 accounts to spend $2,000. Once we understand that price rises, miner costs, and the number of active addresses and other data that represent most people have nothing to do with price rises, then we can figure out what factors affect the behavior of big funds entering and exiting the market, and we can grasp the transition time points of BTC's rise and fall, so we can understand the cycle we are in and be the master of profits. The reality is that most retail investors fail to see the real reasons clearly, and use the same method of observing the later market in the stock market to observe this early market, and come up with a completely invalid relationship logic. They lose a lot of money but are still confused, lose a lot of time and even harm their bodies. The early stage of the market is fleeting. It is a pity that you can't make money in a market where the rise and fall are calculated as 1 times, 10 times, or 100 times. At present, the market is coming out of the downturn and prices are constantly reaching new highs. As I write this article, trading volume continues to increase. How long in the future? How much can it rise? How to judge? Real logic? How to avoid being scammed. The hedging logic mentioned in the previous article is actually words beautified by the P picture. The real reason why it is inconvenient to reveal can be seen at a glance. Please scan the QR code below and click follow to see the real content. If you ask me, there is a high probability that it will reach new highs this year, but if you want to avoid suffering nine months of pain again, it is important to choose the right time to hold on to gains. This is the real logic you need.  |
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