English

 找回密码
 立即注册
搜索

11.04|BTC/ETH daily market analysis

Vitalik 2025-11-4 12:29 29229人围观 ETH

(Today's market analysis) Today's market analysis2025.11.4 BTC current price: $107,000 Day analysis 1️⃣Structural interpretation The technical side has turned on the red light, and market confidence is very fragile. The current core task is to observe wh


(Today’s market analysis)

Today's market analysis

2025.11.4



BTC

Current price: $107,000



Intraday analysis

1️⃣ Structural interpretation

The technical picture has turned red and market confidence is very fragile. The current core task is to observe whether the price can stabilize its position above $100,000 and rebuild its defense line. Under the current situation, I don’t recommend taking long positions. Bitcoin is currently in a pattern of short-term structural weakness. The daily red moving average has fallen below. A second confirmation is required here. Be careful!

2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics


  • Capital flow (market "blood transfusion" situation): Selling pressure mainly comes from long-term holders. Data shows that about 400,000 Bitcoins (about 2% of the circulating supply) were sold during October. Fortunately, the new market structure composed of spot ETFs and others has absorbed this part of the supply, preventing prices from falling further, showing that the demand side still has a certain capacity to bear.

  • On-chain data (the "truck" trends of large players): Some analysts have observed that some wallet addresses that have been dormant for a long time have been activated, and these "sleeping" tokens have begun to enter the market for liquidation, providing additional selling pressure to the market.

  • Exchange dynamics (market "sentiment" thermometer): This plunge is a "massacre" targeting long leverage. In the past 24 hours, the amount of liquidated positions across the entire network reached US$1.2 billion, of which more than 90% were liquidated by long positions, amounting to US$1.1 billion. This shows that most investors who chased the rise suffered heavy losses.


3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day

Focus on defense and be cautious when buying lows. It would be best if the market can reach around 11w, and we can consider trying to go short. There is no long order recommendation, the current market sentiment is extremely sensitive, any operation must be light position and strictly set a stop loss. The safest strategy is to wait for price to move in a clear direction on its own.

4️⃣ Risk warning

  1. Structural break risk: The $100,000 mark cannot be missed. Once the heavy volume falls below, the short-term weak pattern will be confirmed, which may trigger programmed selling and long stop-loss, causing the price to accelerate downward.

  2. High leverage liquidation risk: Market volatility remains high, and more than $1.2 billion in long positions have been liquidated. If prices fall again, remaining leveraged long positions could become a new powder keg.

  3. Impact on macro sentiment: Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in October, the market is still evaluating the future policy path. Any adverse macro news may "ruin the wounds" of a fragile market.



[For reference only, not as investment advice]

🎁Limited benefits🎁

「Short-term artifact · Fou Ji Tai Lai」

Exclusive self-developed Tradingview indicator

Winning rate 80%+

Filter shocks and focus on market trends

Re-enacting and restoring the real trading techniques of futures masters

Original price￥6688

Open for a limited time for 7 days

Free licensing experience


Only [100] users who add assistants

Once the quota is exhausted, the entrance will be closed immediately!

Scan the code to get it now!

👇🏻





ETH

Current price: $3648.90



Intraday analysis

1️⃣ Structural interpretation

The current situation of ETH can be described as "a leak in the house is met with continuous rain". Not only did the price plummet by nearly 9%, falling below the key support of $3,600, the cumulative decline since the August high has reached approximately 25%, and the technical form is very ugly. ETH's technical and news aspects form a double blow, and its short-term structure is weaker than that of BTC. We need to pay attention to whether prices can stop falling as soon as possible and restore market confidence.

2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics

  • Capital flow: There is huge pressure on capital. Perpetual contract funding rates have continued to weaken since mid-October, and many exchanges have turned negative. This means that short sellers need to pay to hold the position, reflecting the strong bearish sentiment in the market.

  • On-chain data: The market’s pessimistic expectations for the market outlook are reflected in the options market. Positions in Ethereum put options expiring on November 28 have increased significantly, especially at strike prices below $3,700, $3,500, and $3,000. This shows that a large number of traders are betting that ETH will fall further.

  • Exchange news: Security emergencies have worsened market sentiment. The Ethereum ecological decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Balancer was exposed to a hacker attack on Monday, and the loss may exceed US$100 million. Such incidents will severely damage investors' confidence in the ecological security of Ethereum.


3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day

A rebound is a shorting opportunity. All rallies should be viewed as opportunities to reduce positions or go short. When the price reaches around 3750-3760, we can try to go short. The short position here is more aggressive, so the short order must be placed within 1 hour. No long planning. ETH is generally more volatile than BTC. In the current downward trend, going short is going with the trend, and going long is going against the trend. Always choose the direction of least resistance.

4️⃣ Risk warning

  1. The risk of continued ecological bad news: the Balancer hacking incident may not be the last one. If the Ethereum ecosystem continues to expose security vulnerabilities or negative news, it will continue to hit the price of ETH.

  2. High Volatility Risk: ETH’s intraday volatility is generally greater than that of BTC. In the current downward trend, this means that it may fall more and faster, which is a great test for position management.

  3. Risk of market linkage: The trend of ETH is highly correlated with BTC. If the big brother BTC falls below the $100,000 mark, it is almost impossible for the little brother ETH to survive alone, and the decline may be amplified.



[For reference only, not as investment advice]

Live open classes every night from 19:30 to 21:30

From chaos to stability, use rules to grasp trends

WeChat ID丨AST-FengS

Bilibili丨Fengshen Chats about Trading

YouTube丨Fengshen talks about trading

Open Sesame丨ASTROLABE

Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the personal views of Mr. Fengshen and does not constitute specific operational recommendations. If you operate based on this, you are responsible for your profits and losses. Investments are risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.



Like

collect

share

⬇️Click "Read the original text" in the lower left corner to join the ASTROLABE community
精彩评论0
我有话说......
29229
TA还没有介绍自己。
关注