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ETH 2.0 VS. BTC, who will dominate the next decade?

Vitalik 2025-9-23 18:17 89376人围观 ETH

This is the original author of the 1730th issue of Vernacular Blockchain | Produced by Five Fireball Leader | Vernacular Blockchain (ID: hellobtc) As expected, we will see a historic moment in the industry next month. Merge of ETH2.0, ETH is officially co




This is the 1730th original issue of Vernacular Blockchain
Author | Five Fireball Leader
Produced | Vernacular Blockchain (ID: hellobtc)

Not surprisingly, we will see a historic moment in the industry next month.

Merge of ETH2.0, ETH is officially converted to POS.

Why did you switch to POS, and some questions after switching, the previous article "Ethereum will merge as soon as August or September: a big plus?" Pledge to smash the market? What to do with Layer2? 》Already said it.

From the user experience point of view, this time is unprecedented, comparable to a major operation like changing the engine of an airplane while flying. The impact on you is - no impact!

Yes, there is no impact. After all, TPS will not change after this upgrade, and the gas cost will not change. Even if the legendary L2 becomes cheaper, we have to wait for EIP4488 to reduce the cost of Call Data by 5 times. This is estimated to be next year, and there will be more powerful Proto-Danksharding later, which will further reduce the cost of L2, just like Buterin said. 0.02 US dollars, at least in the year after tomorrow.~

So why is it still said that this is a historic moment?

Because the POW VS. POS, useless use VS. useful use, which has been debated for countless years, can finally be fought with real swords and guns!

In the future, BTC will continue to be POW, ETH will transform into POS, BTC will continue on its golden path, and ETH will completely become on-chain oil. In the next decade, the two representative blockchain projects will tell us which theory is correct.

 01
POW VS POS (referring only to Bitcoin’s POW and Ethereum’s POS)

  • Who is safer?


This has been argued about for many years, but there is actually no conclusion yet.

POW supporters say that we have externalities, real physical mining machines, energy consumption Blah Blah, this externality brings ecological complexity, making a more complex ecology more robust.

The POS side said who can resist the 51% attack better? Although Bitcoin is safe enough now, 51% of the computing power is almost an astronomical figure, but after ETH POS, it will be more difficult to get 51% of ETH than 51% of the computing power, so from this perspective, POS is safer.

  • Who is more decentralized and more resistant to censorship?

This has also been a topic that has been debated for several years. The fact that Tornado was cracked down by the SEC in the past two days has brought the topic of resistance to censorship and supervision to the forefront.

POW supporters say that we are obviously more decentralized. As long as you have a mining machine, you can mine anywhere. The threshold for a mining machine is obviously cheaper than 32 ETH.

POS supporters say that you don't even look at the concentration of your mining pool, and you have the nerve to say that you are decentralized... Of course, now we find that POS basically consists of Lido, Binance, and Coinbase, a few large "POS mining pools". In fact, everyone is the same. Let no one say that the other side has achieved "true decentralization." As long as our currency holdings are theoretically dispersed enough and the mechanism is non-accessible, we think both sides are "decentralized."

The anti-censorship side is also fighting fiercely. POW said, "Don't you see how many of those using POS chains don't use IDC rooms? Isn’t the IDC computer room shut down immediately? More than 60% of the verification nodes of ETH 2.0 are within the OFAC strike radius. Buterin seems to insist that we will Slash which node has been censored. More than half of the nodes are there. No one can say who will Slash when the time comes. (Slash Chinese: cut/chop/cleave)

POS also fought back. POS requires an IDC computer room, but POW does not require a mine? Isn’t it easier for ZF to shut down a mining farm than an IDC computer room? Even if many nodes are within the radius of OFAC, if they are really censored, we can change the delegation node. It is more convenient to re-pledge and re-delegate the operating coins than to run away and move positions with a bunch of mining machines, right? You are opening a factory and setting up a point, and it is difficult to run away even if you want to. Our POS is hot money, and the worst is to buy a new location.

So let me see, it’s still a half-measured situation.……

 02
Useless vs. Useful

For BTC, this has always been a soul torture - what can BTC do?

It’s said to be digital gold. At least it has industrial uses. At the worst, it can be used for gold jewelry. BTC can’t really do anything except transfer it around. Last year, you could buy a Tesla. This year, the benefits are gone. Some people talk about the Lightning Network and micropayments. These things have been developed for many years, but there has been little progress and very few people are actually using them.

As a result, outsiders see Bitcoin as useless, such as Munger, who directly and openly declares that Bitcoin is rat shit.

For insiders, it is useless to look at Bitcoin, because there is no ecology on it, neither Defi nor NFT... Various latest technological achievements are emerging in an endless stream on Ethereum, while Bitcoin will not change much in a few years... It is even said that the block of Bitcoin will wait for a hundred years. The rewards have completely disappeared, and no one knows what they will rely on to maintain the computing power and security of Bitcoin... TX on the chain has begun to show a downward trend in the past two years. There are fewer and fewer people using BTC wallets and native networks directly, but more and more people are using WBTC.

On the Ethereum side, although the vision of a world computer has been put on hold, the name of the world settlement layer and digital oil has been realized. The technology is constantly iterating, the ecosystem is constantly expanding, and all kinds of Gas are burning every day. If the Merge is successful next month, it may be on the road to deflation in the future.

Is it really going to be deflation? Doesn’t this sound like it’s going to take away Bitcoin’s SOV-store of value job? !

This is why some people call ETH Ultra Sound Money - the ultimate currency.

However, BTC doesn't think so. They have an ultimate killer - useless!

Sorry, it’s just because it’s useless that it’s awesome!

Why? Because there are no competitors! !

As the originator of blockchain, BTC can be regarded as a totem-like existence. It has no competitors and cannot have competitors. Its uselessness is its biggest moat.

On the other hand, ETH, although it is the founder of smart contracts, although it is the leader of the public chain, although it has various functions...but! As long as you are useful, you are not a totem, but a product. This market will always try to make products that are more useful than you. The story of Ethereum killers has never stopped. The first ones were NEO and EOS, which failed... Later, Solana, Avax, and Near are currently chasing after them. There are also new generation killers such as Aptos and Sui ahead.……

The vast majority of these killers are doomed to fail, however! What if any of them succeed one day? ! After all, it is theoretically possible to achieve better technology and a stronger ecosystem than Ethereum, but it is impossible to have a second blockchain totem. It has and only one, which is BTC.

 03
summary

So, is the use of useless things more lasting, or the use of useful things more violently?

In the next 10 years, I think the answer will be revealed.

END
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『Statement: This article is the independent opinion of the author and does not represent the position of vernacular blockchain. This content is only for popular science learning and communication among crypto enthusiasts. It does not constitute investment opinions or suggestions. Please treat it rationally, establish correct concepts, and improve risk awareness. The copyright and final interpretation rights of the article belong to Vernacular Blockchain. 』





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