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The Solana (SOL) market is showing early signs of stabilizing after a sharp sell-off, but the overall technical structure remains fragile. 📊 Overview of current trends SOL price has fallen across the board below all key moving averages (MA-20 at $186.47 and MA-50 at $205.36), indicating that the trend has turned bearish in both the short and medium term. However, the market has also seen some positive signals worth paying attention to: · Oversold conditions: The RSI indicator has entered oversold territory, with readings as low as 28.93, suggesting that selling pressure may have been excessive. · Form brewing: On the daily chart, SOL seems to be forming a falling wedge pattern, which usually indicates that the selling pressure may be about to be exhausted and an upward breakthrough is expected. 📉 Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Market Momentum core price level · Resistance level (upward pressure level): · $162-$170: This is the first major resistance zone in the near term, containing the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the upper Bollinger Bands. · $185-$190: A stronger resistance area coinciding with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and Ichimoku’s Kijun line, holding the key to a trend reversal. · Support level (downside buffer level): · $145-$148: The crucial immediate support range coincides with the lower rail of the falling wedge and the 100-day EMA. Failure to do so will intensify bearish sentiment. · $121.50: This is the potential next major support level if market weakness continues. Interpretation of technical indicators Several indicators show that the market is at a critical juncture: · Bearish Momentum Fading: While the MACD indicator remains negative, confirming the current bearish trend, its histogram shows downside momentum may be fading. · An oversold rebound can be expected: The extremely low RSI reading (28.93) and the Stoch RSI indicator both show that the market is in an extremely oversold state, which creates conditions for a technical rebound. 🔍 News updates and early opinion verification Major positives: massive influx of institutional funds The approval of the Solana spot ETF is the most important fundamental positive in the near future. Despite the market decline, institutional funds are continuing to flow in through this new channel: · The U.S. Solana ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately US$421 million in its first week, pushing the total global Solana ETP (exchange-traded product) assets to exceed US$4.3 billion. · Notably, Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) accounted for nearly all new inflows due to its lower management fees and 100% asset staking commitment. Early perspective verification The previous judgment that "195-200 US dollars support is effective" has been falsified by the market. The actual price trend proves that after the ETF benefits were realized, the market began to "sell facts". This, coupled with the drag of the weakness of the Bitcoin market (it once fell to the $98,000 range), led to a deep correction in SOL. 💡 Operation strategy suggestions short term · Key defensive level: Pay close attention to the $145-148 support area. If the price shows a stabilizing K-line signal in this area (such as a long lower shadow line), you can consider short positions to test long positions. · Rebound target: The first target of the short-term rebound is $162. If it can be exceeded, it may further test $170. · Risk control: If the price effectively falls below $145, you should stop the loss and leave the market to prevent the risk of further testing $121.50. Medium and long term · Layout in batches: This deep correction can be regarded as an opportunity for mid- to long-term layout. It is recommended to adopt a buying strategy in batches rather than a one-time heavy position. · Ideal position building area: You can consider starting to open a position for the first time near $145. If the price can fall back to the $121-130 area, it will be a more ideal time to add a position. · Stop loss benchmark: Set the overall stop loss reference level below $120. · Controlling positions is the top priority in the current market and avoiding the use of high leverage. · Pay close attention to the trend of Bitcoin market and ecological development trends such as Solana network upgrade. 💎 Summary and outlook SOL's short-term technical outlook is still bearish, but the oversold state has paved the way for a technical rebound. The support strength of $145 is crucial and is the last line of defense for bulls. In the current market environment: · You should remain cautious in short-term operations, strictly set stop losses, and try to capture opportunities for oversold rebounds. · Long-term layout requires more patience, waiting for market sentiment to calm down and the technical structure to repair. Despite the short-term technical pressure, the continued institutional capital inflows brought by ETFs and the rapid development of the Solana ecosystem itself (for example, its network has not experienced service interruptions in the past 12 months) are still important long-term value supports. This article does not constitute any investment advice and is for reference only. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable. Be safe and secure. More real-time guidance ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️  |
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