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Friends, I am Zhou Yi. A fan just sent the SOL market chart and asked anxiously: "Brother Zhou, SOL has fallen like this, and the bottom has been diverged. Can you buy the bottom?" "I found that many people have little understanding of technical indicators, so today I will break them down and explain them clearly to everyone. Let’s look at the news side first: the news side hides a big secret!  Just now, on-chain data showed that a whale withdrew 108,158 SOL from OKX for pledge. Sounds like a good thing, right? But a closer look shows that this giant whale has pledged a total of 316,826 SOL since August 22, with a total value of US$57.19 million, and the current floating loss is as high as US$7.3 million! what does that mean? Let me explain it to you: First, the giant whale is trapped. The floating loss of US$7.3 million is like a sword hanging above the head, which may trigger panic selling at any time.； Second, although a large amount of pledges reduces the circulation, it also shows that whales dare not easily move these coins in the short term, and the liquidity is actually getting worse.； Third, and most importantly, this exposes the fact that big funds are also trapped, indicating that the downward trend may not be over yet. Let’s look at the technical side:  The current SOL quotation is 155.30, and there is indeed a "bottom divergence" on the one-hour line - the MACD white and yellow line has a golden cross below the 0 axis, but the price is still hitting new lows. This is like a person who is exhausted but still pushing forward. It usually indicates that a short-term rebound may occur. The key positions are clear:
Looking at the RSI indicators, RSI1:53.94, RSI2:46.12, RSI3:40.85, all are in the weak range below 50, indicating that market sentiment is still bearish. In terms of volume and energy, we should be more vigilant - the red column is rising, but the trading volume MA is only 1.26 million, which is significantly smaller than the MA of 1.91 million. This is a typical "infinite rebound", and the reliability is greatly reduced. My judgment and action suggestions: In the short term, SOL may rebound to near the key level of 158, but it will be extremely difficult to break through 168. What is more likely is that after oscillating in the 150-158 range, it will continue to test the strong support of 145 downwards. Why is my judgment still bearish in the medium to long term?
A true message to retail investors: If you are trapped now, don’t rush to increase your position. Wait until RSI enters the oversold zone before considering covering your position.； If you want to buy at the bottom, remember these three principles: "small positions, enter in batches, and set a stop loss." My own operation is: test the water with a light position near 150, and resolutely stop the loss if it falls below 145. In fact, I also found a more critical signal from the on-chain data - a mysterious address is accumulating a large amount of SOL spot, which may indicate a big move in the coming week. Want to know the holding cost and operation intention of this address? Follow me, I will reveal the secret in depth tomorrow based on real-time data! On the road to the currency circle, technology is the foundation, news is the key, and mentality determines success or failure. My name is Zhou Yi, and I will help you look at the market from a professional perspective every day. If you find it useful, please follow it and forward it to friends who need it. Let’s find your opportunities together in the bull market! #Fed resumes interest rate cuts The market always rewards the few and punishes the many. When you are hesitating, others are already making plans ； When you are chasing the rise, others are already taking profits. Follow the Book of Changes, go to the village to get strategies, and become the next top player to hunt for sand dealers! Tomorrow at this time, you will be grateful for this decision today! ! ! $SOL  The above content is for reference only. The market is unpredictable. For friends who want to follow the operation or hold positions, go to Zhouyi Village. We will give you accurate strategies, points and directions in a timely manner according to the changes in the market, as well as the morning newspapers and giant whale positions collected by our system, so that the villagers can eat this meat as soon as possible! ! !  |
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