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ETH 1-hour market analysis and operation strategy (2025-11-08)  1. Trend judgment ETH is currently in a bullish trend (technical 50% + on-chain 25% + sentiment 25%), with a short-term shock range of 3398-3528. It is expected to accelerate upward after breaking through the key resistance. Multi-cycle rising probability: 60% in 1 hour, 65% in 4 hours, and 75% in the daily line. 2. Core logic (1) Technical aspect (weight 50%)  - MACD: The green column above the 0 axis shrinks and maintains the long position. After short-term adjustment, the upward trend may continue.； - Moving average system: It stands firm on the medium and long-term moving average (20/30/60/120 days), but falls below the short-term moving average (5/10/240 days). You need to be alert to the risk of shock.； - Key positions: support 3398 (strong), 3303 (second line of defense)； Resistance 3528 (breakout point), 3645 (next target) ； Stop loss 3260 (trend reversed below). (2) On-chain funds (weight 25%) - Giant Whale Trend: The address "1011short" bought 40,000 ETH (13.8 million US dollars) after clearing BTC, with a liquidation price of 2532, long-term view； - Leverage signal: 20 times long order entry (clearing price 3311), short-term bullish but higher risk； - ETF dynamics: 9 ETFs had a net inflow of 10,789 ETH ($35.86 million), and institutional funds continued to increase their holdings. (3) Market sentiment (weight 25%) - KOL consensus: Neutral to bullish, believing that the current situation is in the "pre-breakthrough accumulation stage", focusing on the 3528 resistance level； - Potential risks: 3311 is an intensive liquidation area for high-leverage long orders, and a sudden drop can easily trigger a series of liquidations.  3. Operation strategy (1) Conservative type - Entry: chase after breaking through 3528 (confirming the continuation of the trend)； - Take profit: 3645 (previous daily high)； - Stop loss: 3260 (below the trend line). (2) Radical type - Entry: Build positions in batches near 3398 (gaming support is valid)； - Take profit: 3528 (high position reduction before breakthrough)； - Stop loss: 3260 (strict risk control). 4. Risk warning 1. Risk of false breakthrough: rising to 3528 and then falling quickly may be a bullish trap； 2. Leverage crisis: 20 times more orders are concentrated in 3311, and a sudden drop of 5% will trigger a stampede； 3. BTC linkage risk: We need to pay attention to whether BTC can stabilize the 70,000 mark, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate will weaken if it falls below 0.048. 5. Decision-making suggestions It is currently recommended to go long on dips and focus on observing the effectiveness of 3398 support. If the volume exceeds 3528, you can increase your position, and if it falls below 3260, you need to stop losses decisively.  (Data updated at 2025-11-08 15:15:28, analysis tool: Yiyingbao AI) ⚠️ Tip: This strategy is for reference only. There are risks in the currency market, so you need to be cautious when making decisions! |
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