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 Cryptocurrency analyst VisionPulsed said that the window for Dogecoin to achieve a cyclical rise has been shortened to a few weeks, and believes that if the rise is not achieved in November, the current bull market pattern may end and shift the focus of discussion to downside risks in 2026. In a piece posted on November 5 video , the analyst views Bitcoin’s weekly moving average as the arbiter of short-term trends, and infers that it will also determine Dogecoin’s fate: “By the end of the week, we need to see Bitcoin back above $103,000 to $104,000. If this happens, then we can start talking about a Dogecoin rally. A close below $102,000, or even below $100,000, would be the first confirmation of a bear market. ” Dogecoin needs an immediate reversalVisionPulsed combines the outlook for Dogecoin with broader market structure and cross-asset momentum analysis. He noted that when charting the “top 10 dominant” coin portfolios excluding stablecoins, the market has “fully retreated from the altcoin craze of 2021.” He cautioned that hitting the upper edge of a multi-year channel "doesn't mean a top has been reached," but it does indicate that the rally is quite mature. The analyst emphasized that he was not basing his assertion on this single metric alone. The beginning of the altcoin boom ； Rather, he is assessing Dogecoin’s risks given that the market has retested a key historical boundary. He said that the most immediate resistance level at the moment is still Bitcoin’s weekly moving average and a series of supporting signals. “All eyes remain on $103,000,” VisionPulsed noted, citing the Supertrend indicator, which so far resembles what happened in March when prices briefly fell below that level but did not ultimately close below it, thus avoiding a formal sell signal. He contrasted this with what happened in 2021, when the same indicator sent a clear sell signal when it confirmed a close below that point.  This distinction is important because Dogecoin’s high-beta behavior relative to Bitcoin tends to compress the timeline of increases and pullbacks, with any decisive break and close below the moving averages erasing Dogecoin’s already narrow upside window. Analysts believe that although the monthly MACD indicator has not yet crossed downwards, the market momentum is "extremely bearish, as if declaring that the market cycle is coming to an end." The lagging nature of this high time frame oscillator leaves room for a “small bounce” that was still enough to support large moves in altcoins in previous cycles. “In this bull market... every time the price bounces off the moving average, it breaks out of the previous high,” he said, proposing a precondition: If the trend continues and Bitcoin regains its footing before the weekly close, an eventual rally for Dogecoin is still possible. But he declined to extend the timeline for the rise beyond the short term: “I think if the price didn’t recover in November, the Dogecoin rally probably wouldn’t have happened. ” Calendar overlays play an important role. VisionPulsed explored a scenario in which Dogecoin could peak in January, but stressed that current mathematical models are unconvincing unless a rally begins immediately. “It's January in 81 days...it's almost impossible now because you don't want to drag it out into January, February, March. At some point, you have to accept that this isn't going to happen. ” His refusal to "change the goalposts" defines his basic assumption: only There was a directional shift in November; Only then can the bullish view be established. From a morphological perspective, he noted that Dogecoin exhibits a head-and-shoulders top-like structure and introduced a prominent downside mark that he has used in previous updates. “That’s why this little piggy is down here,” he said, referring to a chart marking potential capitulation zones around $0.05 to $0.06.  If Bitcoin breaks below the weekly moving average, and the close confirms the break, then “Dogecoin will only really come into play if Bitcoin breaks below that moving average,” with Dogecoin’s primary price target falling back to “five to six cents.” In terms of Bitcoin, he assumed that the retracements of both the rise and the fall were smaller than the previous cycle, and based on this premise, he constructed a $40,000 to $50,000 Bear Market Baseline , which means “the retracement won’t be 77%…probably somewhere between 65% and 70%,” which would coincide with lows around $40,000. In the case of Dogecoin, he drew a clear decision tree. If Bitcoin returns to the $103,000 to $104,000 range before the weekly close and is confirmed to be above the moving average, then Dogecoin's rising window will reopen, and it is expected to usher in a wave of gains from the end of the fourth quarter to January next year. If Bitcoin closes below around $102,000 and continues to weaken, "a bear market is coming," the price of Dogecoin could drop to "5 cents," or even "possibly below that," depending on how much Bitcoin falls. At press time, Dogecoin (DOGE) was trading at $0.16297.  The bull market is still here, and now is the golden period for planning. Scan the QR code below to follow our footsteps and seize the wealth code together, welcome the upcoming bull market, and realize our dream of wealth and freedom together! Group content: 1. Seize the opportunity to build a position in the next three months, lead everyone to transcend social strata, and gain the opportunity to gain wealth! 2. Share the short-term band opportunities and long-term investment strategies of altcoin spot to help you make steady profits! Welcome to chat with me privately → WeChat: sui3786, backup: 3073259620, scan the code below!  |
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