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Today is the last day of the week, and Solana (SOL) is trading around the $158-162 range. Price volatility has narrowed in the past 24 hours, with bulls and bears in a stalemate at key support areas, and the market is waiting for a directional breakthrough. 📊 Overview of current trends SOL price is currently fluctuating around the key level of $160 and is testing the core support range of $153-157. This area is crucial to the future trend of SOL. If it can successfully hold, it may build a short-term bottom. ； If it fails, it could open up further downside. 📉 Detailed explanation of technical analysis · Resistance levels: US$162-165 (immediate resistance), US$176-180 (strong medium-term resistance), US$192-200 (psychological mark) · Support levels: $152-157 (structural demand zone), $145-150 (recent strong support zone), $141.5 (secondary support) technical indicator signals · The conditions for an oversold rebound are met: the RSI reading is at 36.81, which is close to the oversold zone, suggesting that the selling pressure may have been excessive, creating conditions for a technical rebound. · Signs of momentum differentiation: Although the MACD indicator is still below the zero axis, confirming that short momentum is dominant, its histogram shows that the downward momentum may be weakening. · The bottom pattern is brewing: The 2-hour chart shows that the price has clearly consolidated in the $153-157 range, forming a potential bottom structure. Analysts note that the area has historically been an area of structural demand. 🔍 News impact positive factors · ETF funds continue to inflow: Solana ETF has performed strongly, with a cumulative inflow of more than US$323 million in the past eight days, including a single-day inflow of US$29 million on November 7. While the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced outflows, the Bitwise Solana ETF received over $126 million in net inflows in its first full trading week. · Enhanced on-chain liquidity: Circle recently issued an additional 125 million USDC on the Solana network, which was one of the largest single-day stablecoin injections this quarter, significantly increasing on-chain liquidity. · Institutions are optimistic about the long-term: Bitwise Chief Investment Officer believes that SOL may increase its market share by 5 times in the future. The network handles an average of 70 million transactions per day and has strong fundamental support. risk factors · Risk of technical breakdown: The price has fully fallen below all key moving averages, and both short-term and medium-term trends have turned bearish. · Highly correlated with Bitcoin: The price correlation between SOL and Bitcoin is as high as 0.97. Bitcoin’s recent fall below the $102,000 mark has directly dragged down SOL’s performance. · Meme currency dependence risk: Some analysts pointed out that Solana’s REV (real economic value) comes entirely from Meme currency transactions, which brings structural risks to its long-term value support. Operation suggestions short term · Key defensive level: Pay close attention to the support of $152-157. If the price stabilizes here and there is a rebound signal (such as a long lower shadow), you can consider stepping in with a short position. · Rebound target: The first target of the short-term rebound is the $162-165 range, and after a breakthrough, it may further test $176. · Risk control: If the price effectively falls below $150, you should consider stopping the loss and leaving the market to prevent the risk of further testing $145-146. Medium and long term · Layout in batches: The current price area ($150-160) can be regarded as an opportunity for mid- to long-term layout, and it is recommended to adopt a buying strategy in batches. · Ideal position building area: You can consider starting a position near $150. If the price can fall back to the $140-146 area, it will be a better time to add a position. · Stop loss benchmark: Set the overall stop loss reference level below $138. · Strictly control positions: a single position should not exceed 10% of the total funds to avoid excessive use of leverage during fluctuations. · Pay attention to the Bitcoin market: Whether BTC can hold the key level will directly affect the sustainability of SOL's rebound. · Pay attention to network development: Pay attention to Solana network upgrade and ecological application progress in November. 💎 Summary and outlook SOL's short-term technical outlook is still bearish, but the oversold state has paved the way for a technical rebound. The strength of the support area of $152-157 is crucial and is the line of defense that bulls must guard. · Stop losses should be strictly set in short-term operations, and you can try to capture opportunities for oversold rebounds. · Long-term layout requires more patience. The continuous institutional capital inflow brought by ETF and the rapid development of Solana ecosystem itself are still its important long-term value supports. If SOL can successfully hold the support of $152-157 and break through the resistance of $165, it may start a rebound towards $176-180； On the other hand, if $150 falls, it may drop to the $140-146 area. Please note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and all analyzes are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Stay safe everyone, more real-time guidance ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️  |
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