English
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The fantasy that recurs in every cryptocurrency bull market is that you buy a token with a cute animal print on it—such as Dogecoin—and soon become rich overnight as its price soars. The story is charming, but also subtly suggests you not to delve into the mathematical logic.  So, can buying Dogecoin now make you a millionaire by 2026? Let’s do the math and analyze the investment logic to find the answer. Judging from the data, the situation is not optimistic. As of early November, Dogecoin’s market capitalization was approximately $25 billion. For meme coins, reaching such a huge scale is the pinnacle. If you invest such an irresponsible sum of $10,000, you will need to get 100 times the return to become a millionaire. But this means that the market value of Dogecoin needs to soar to about 25 trillion US dollars - for comparison, the total market value of the current market leader Bitcoin is about 21 trillion US dollars. Therefore, if Dogecoin is to surpass Bitcoin in 2026, it will need a very convincing new narrative, and this narrative must be strong enough to trigger a tsunami of new funds in the next 14 months. There is currently no evidence of such a narrative, and little hope that the token’s underlying technology will achieve breakthroughs. More importantly, this will almost certainly require the support of an extremely loose macroeconomic environment - including extremely loose monetary policy and extremely low interest rates, paving the way for a large amount of liquidity to enter the cryptocurrency field. Only if the central bank provides support by issuing a large amount of legal currency, can it be initially envisioned that Dogecoin will be equally matched with Bitcoin. Other policy support, such as tariff rebates or even stimulus checks, could also inspire investors to take a risk on buying. In other words, the threshold for achieving a 100-fold increase in just one year is a fantasy. Smarter options do exist. Investment results that create millionaires often come from assets that have value accumulation mechanisms: for example, holders can receive cash flow, control supply through automatic token burning, or become necessary infrastructure to allow demand to grow naturally. The design of Dogecoin has no token destruction mechanism, no cash flow, and no supply limit. So it's unlikely to make any millionaires, especially in 2026. Having said that, there will still be investors who insist on buying. Could frothy sentiment, celebrity power, or a speculative bull run push Dogecoin prices higher next year? Of course it's possible. But the only ones who can profit from this are those gamblers who are willing to accept bad odds at this moment. There's no real investment theory behind this - if you invest at this point, you're essentially gambling, and it's never a good habit to develop. It is true that the market is prone to mania, and meme coins can also skyrocket when conditions are ripe, but this is meaningless if there is no justification for investing in a specific token. Even assuming that risk assets perform strongly in 2026, Dogecoin may perform well (although it is not worth betting on). However, in the context of continued issuance and the lack of new engines for value creation, achieving a "moonshot" surge requires extraordinary optimism - and this is almost certainly not going to happen. |
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