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Solana (SOL) has fallen below the key psychological mark of $140, and is now trading at around $139.98, with a 24-hour decrease of approximately 0.31%. The market is experiencing a critical turning point, with both technical and on-chain data sending out warning signals. 📉 Core trend and key technical analysis Verification of early views and current situation The judgment in the previous analysis that "$150 is the key support" has been falsified by the market. SOL not only fell below $150, but also fell further below $140 today, confirming the continuation of the short-term downward trend. Key technology positions and the risk of "air zone" on the chain According to the latest On-Chain Data (URPD) analysis, SOL currently faces a tough technical situation: below $144, there is little significant on-chain support until $24. This means that a large number of investors bought at a cost price higher than $144. If the price continues to fall, it may be difficult to find effective natural buying support, forming a so-called "air zone." · Resistance level (upward pressure level): · $144-150 (former support that fell below, now transformed into strong resistance) · $162-165 (stronger resistance) · Support level (downside buffer level): · Near current prices ($139-142) provides weak support for recent volatility · Support below is far away: According to URPD data, the next meaningful on-chain demand area does not appear until $24, but technical analysis mentions that there may be a support range based on historical transactions at $128-135. technical indicator signals · Short-term momentum is weak: Price has fallen below its immediate green support zone and is now approaching the second blue defensive zone. · Market sentiment is gloomy: SOL prices once fell 3% in the past 24 hours. Although it has since recovered, the overall selling pressure is still obvious. 🔍 Analysis of long and short factors in the news Negative factors (leading short-term sentiment) · On-chain activity has cooled significantly: Solana’s daily active addresses have dropped to 3.3 million, a 12-month low, reflecting declining user engagement. · DEX trading volume declined: The weekly trading volume of decentralized exchanges (DEX) in the entire cryptocurrency market fell by 21.6%. The reduced market activity may affect the attractiveness of the SOL ecosystem. · ** The meme currency craze has subsided**: The enthusiasm for meme currency transactions that previously drove Solana’s user growth has significantly cooled down. Positive factors (long-term value support) · ETF funds continue to inflow: Despite market weakness, U.S. Solana spot ETFs (such as Bitwise’s BSOL) continue to attract capital inflows, with a cumulative inflow of approximately US$336 million since launch, demonstrating institutional investors’ confidence in SOL’s long-term prospects. · Technology upgrades continue to advance: Solana’s core team is actively promoting a series of technology upgrades including Alpenglow and Firedancer, aiming to improve network performance, security and decentralization. The long-term fundamentals remain solid. 💡 Operation strategy suggestions short term · Open positions carefully and strictly control risks: at the current key position, it is not recommended to blindly buy lows. Pay attention to whether the price can rise back above $144 and stabilize. · If there is a rebound: only light positions will be involved and the stop loss will be set below $138. The short-term rebound target is first seen near $150. · If it continues to fall: If the price effectively falls below $138, it may mean that it will drop further and stop loss should be considered. Medium and long term · Wait patiently and make arrangements in batches: In view of the possible "air zone" below, it is not recommended to place heavy positions at the current price. Funds can be divided into multiple tranches. · Ideal position building area: Consider the historical technical support range of $128-135, or wait for the price to show a clear signal of stabilization in a certain area (such as a long lower shadow line at the daily level or a heavy volume increase) before making the first batch of positions. · Stop loss benchmark: Set the overall stop loss reference level below $120. · Strictly control positions: This is the top priority in the current high-risk environment. Make sure the risk on any single trade is within your tolerance. · Pay attention to market sentiment: Bitcoin’s trend will have a direct impact on SOL. If Bitcoin can stabilize and rebound, it will help SOL stop its decline. 💎 Summary and outlook SOL's short-term technical outlook has weakened significantly. Falling below the key support of $140 and entering the "air zone" with weak on-chain support is the main risk. For us: · You should remain extremely cautious in short-term operations, and risk avoidance is your top priority. · Long-term layout requires more patience and waiting for a clearer safety margin or stabilization signal. The continued institutional capital inflows brought by ETFs and the continued technological upgrades of the Solana ecosystem are important supports for its long-term value. Note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and all analyzes are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. More real-time guidance⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️  |
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