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ETH 2-hour cycle in-depth market analysis and operation strategy (updated at 2025-11-16 14:30) 1. Core market judgment - Direction: Shock breakthrough (68% probability of increase) - Current price: 3208.3 USDT (Binance spot) - Core logic: 1. Technical aspect: After the 2-hour BOLL band closed, it broke through the upper track (3270 USDT), MACD golden cross formed, and the volume can be amplified.； 2. On-chain support: There are $320 million in institutional buying orders at 3100 USDT (Bitmine order data)； 3. News catalyst: Buterin’s Twitter hinted at the countdown to “Major Upgrade to Layer 2,” raising market expectations. 2. Key data  - Immediate support: 3100 USDT (institutional buying wall) - Core resistance: 3350 USDT (previous daily high + short position) - Market Sentiment: Greed Index 78 (Extreme Greed) - Leverage risk: 25 times leverage position ↑32% (be wary of inserting pins) - Long-short ratio: 1.83 (bulls are overheated) - Funding rate: +0.12% (cost of going long increases) - Changes on the chain: 30,000 ETH was transferred to Binance 15 minutes ago (a potential crash signal) 3. Operation strategy (2-hour cycle)  1. Breakout strategy (current price 3208 USDT) - Breaking through 3250 USDT: Buy 10% of the position at market price, stop loss 3180 USDT (-2%), target 3320 USDT (+3.5%)； - Stand firm at 3300 USDT: increase the position to 30%, move the stop loss to 3250 USDT, and ultimately target 3350 USDT (see 3400+ after breakthrough). 2. Callback defense strategy - Rapidly falling below 3150 USDT: open a 5% short position on the backhand, stop loss 3200 USDT, and target 3080 USDT (Bitmine buy area). 3. Coping with special scenarios - Good news: ETH increased by more than 5% within 2 hours, and 50% of the position was immediately closed to lock in profits； - Macro negative: The Fed's hawkish speech triggered a sharp decline, and the price fell below 3050 USDT with a full stop loss. 4. Risk warning  1. Leverage stampede risk: 41% of contracts are leveraged over 25 times (Bybit data), and a 3% price fluctuation may trigger a series of liquidations.； 2. False breakthrough trap: $480 million in short orders (Coinglass) gathered at the 3350 USDT resistance level, be wary of "a 5% plunge after a false breakthrough"”； 3. Black swan in the news: SEC launches investigation into ETH pledge (probability 15%), and if this happens, liquidate the position immediately. 5. Emergency alarm A $15 million market price sell order was detected at 3270 USDT, which may trigger a short-term correction. It is recommended that the pending order range be adjusted to 3220-3240 USDT to receive orders. Policy validity period: until 2025-11-16 16:30 UTC+8 Risk warning: The volatility of cryptocurrency is as high as 80%. It is recommended that the risk of a single transaction does not exceed 2% of the principal, and it is strictly prohibited to hold orders. |
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