(Today’s market analysis)
Today's market analysis
2025.11.18
BTC
Current price: $90136.53
Intraday analysis
1️⃣ Structural interpretation
There must be brave men in the plummeting market, and there will be many bargain hunters. In just the past 24 hours, more than 200,000 people liquidated their positions. I told you not to buy the bottom or go long. You should be lucky that you are following the right person. Otherwise, if I had done it myself in the past few months and followed the market sentiment to buy the bottom, I would have been sent home by the market long ago. The market is weak now and is more willing to fall. The maximum value in the space below can be seen around 84,000. Therefore, bargain hunting is an absolute must.
2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics
Capital flow (market "blood transfusion" situation): Institutional funds are withdrawing on a large scale. Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced huge capital outflows, with net outflows exceeding US$1.4 billion in a single week. This signals that the core pillars that previously supported the market rebound are collapsing.
On-chain data (trends of the "truck cards" of large investors): Long-term holders (giant whales) have become the main force in this round of selling. Blockchain data shows that selling behavior by what most blockchain analytics companies define as “whales” (entities holding at least 1,000 BTC) and long-term holders are the main reasons for the recent weakness. Many early-stage investors view $100,000 as an important psychological profit-taking point.
Exchange dynamics (market "sentiment" thermometer): Highly leveraged bulls suffered a "bloodbath." In the past 24 hours, the amount of liquidated positions across the entire network reached US$845 million, of which long positions accounted for the majority of US$508 million. In the past 4 hours, the situation was equally tragic, with the liquidation amount reaching US$309 million, of which long positions liquidated US$292 million.
3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day
Do not blindly buy the bottom. Before a clear bottom reversal signal appears, any long position against the trend is like a moth flying into the flames.
The radicals are unable to attack near 95,000, and there are stagflation K-line patterns such as long upper shadows and bearish engulfing. You can consider short positions and follow the trend. Moderate faction, one hour is the best time to start. I have to suggest that "no operation" is the best operation. Keep plenty of cash and wait for the market to give clear signals of stopping the decline and stabilizing.
4️⃣ Risk warning
The risk of emotional selling spreading: Negative market sentiment has risen sharply, and the encryption market fear and greed index has officially dropped to 10, which is "extreme fear." Under extreme panic, investors are prone to irrational selling, leading to unexpected "flash crashes" in prices.
Macro stress risk: Traders are paying close attention to Nvidia's earnings report released on Wednesday Eastern Time - the company is a bellwether for the technology industry and speculative risks - and are also paying attention to changes in expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in December. Monday's decline in the S&P 500 index further impacted market sentiment for various risk assets.
Technical bear market risk: Bitcoin has fallen by more than 20% from its October high and has fallen into a technical bear market. If the $90,000 support is confirmed to be effectively broken, the space below may be further opened, and the options market shows that traders are betting that the price will fall towards $80,000.
[For reference only, not as investment advice]
🎁Limited benefits🎁
「Short-term artifact · Fou Ji Tai Lai」
Exclusive self-developed Tradingview indicator
Winning rate 80%+
Filter shocks and focus on market trends
Re-enacting and restoring the real trading techniques of futures masters
Original price￥6688
Limited time free license trial for 7 days!
Only [100] users who add assistants
Once the quota is exhausted, the entrance will be closed immediately!
Scan the code to get it now!
👇🏻
ETH
Current price: $2973.13
Intraday analysis
1️⃣ Structural interpretation
The rebound is short, but it cannot be blindly short. In the area of 3000, there will be many people trying to buy the bottom, waiting patiently, waiting for them to dare not to buy the bottom, or until the explosion is almost over, we are studying the matter of long orders.
2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics
Capital flow: There is huge pressure on capital. Spot Ethereum ETFs also experienced large-scale capital outflows. This is similar to the situation in the Bitcoin market, indicating that institutional investors are leaving the cryptocurrency market altogether.
On-chain data: Long-term holders are also leaving the market at an accelerated pace. On-chain data shows that long-term holders of ETH are selling their tokens, creating additional market supply pressure.
Exchange news: Big whales have divergent views. Despite facing significant selling pressure, data shows that some large addresses (whales) have been accumulating during market declines. This shows that at the current position, there is a huge gap between the long and short sides of the market.
3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day
Be cautious about buying the bottom. We are all short in the mid-cycle now. It is absolutely impossible for us to buy the bottom now. If the market rebounds again today near the position we shorted last night, we will continue to try to short.
4️⃣ Risk warning
Liquidation leverage risk: There is high leverage in the ETH derivatives market. If the price falls further, it may trigger a series of liquidations, forming a "more kills more" stampede market, sharply amplifying the decline.
Risk of market linkage: The trend of ETH is highly correlated with BTC. If the big brother BTC cannot stop the decline and continues to decline, the little brother ETH's $3,000 defense line will be under tremendous pressure and is likely to be breached.
Ecological confidence risk: The continued plunge may affect the confidence of developers and users in the Ethereum ecosystem. If it causes on-chain activity to shrink, it will in turn weaken its fundamentals and value support.
[For reference only, not as investment advice]
Live open classes every night from 20:30 to 22:30
From chaos to stability, use rules to grasp trends
WeChat ID丨AST-FengS
Bilibili丨Fengshen Chats about Trading
YouTube丨Fengshen talks about trading
Open Sesame丨ASTROLABE
Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the personal views of Mr. Fengshen and does not constitute specific operational recommendations. If you operate based on this, you are responsible for your profits and losses. Investments are risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.
Like
collect
share
⬇️Click "Read the original text" in the lower left corner to join the ASTROLABE community
|
English
