(Today’s market analysis)
Today's market analysis
2025.11.21
BTC
Current price: $85570.29
Intraday analysis
1️⃣ Structural interpretation
As the pie falls, our expected target is approaching. But whether it is possible to buy the bottom, my answer is not recommended. The target level is just the target level. It is currently impossible to confirm whether it is the bottom. Market confidence is on the verge of collapse, and BTC is currently facing multiple blows from "institutional withdrawal, whale selling, and bull leverage collapse." Liquidity is being withdrawn from the market, opening up a new period of vulnerability.
2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics
Capital flow (market "blood transfusion" situation): Institutional funds are withdrawing on a large scale. The former supporting forces, including large investment funds, ETF allocators and corporate treasurers, have left the market one after another, causing Bitcoin to lose an important pillar of this year's surge and triggering the market to enter a new stage of vulnerability.
On-chain data (trends of the "truck cards" of large investors): Massive selling by whale investors is also one of the sources of pressure for this round of selling. James Butterfill, director of research at CoinShares, said that cryptocurrencies are experiencing heavy selling by whale investors who follow the logic of the four-year cycle. Large holders have sold more than $20 billion in assets since September.
Exchange dynamics (market "sentiment" thermometer): Highly leveraged bulls suffered a "bloodbath." In the past 24 hours, the amount of liquidated positions across the entire network reached US$831 million, of which long positions accounted for the majority of US$696 million. This shows that during the decline, funds chasing the rise with high leverage suffered the most losses.
3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day
Don't blindly buy the bottom and follow the trend. What needs to be considered here is which trend to follow.
The radicals are unable to attack near 91500, and there are stagflation K-line patterns such as long upper shadows and bearish engulfing. You can consider short positions and follow the trend. Moderate faction, one hour is the best time to start. I have to suggest that "no operation" is the best operation. Wait patiently for the market to take a clear direction on its own.
4️⃣ Risk warning
Macro policy dependence risk: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy is the core variable in the current market. Market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are wavering, and any "hawkish" (leaning towards maintaining high interest rates or not cutting interest rates) signals may continue to hit Bitcoin.
Technical bear market risk: Bitcoin has fallen from its October high and has fallen into a technical bear market. If the support around 83,000 is confirmed to be effectively broken, the space below may be further opened. The options market believes that the possibility of Bitcoin falling below $90,000 before the end of the year has increased to 50%. Some analysts pointed out that it may fall to $75,000.
Emotional selling contagion risk: Market panic is contagious. Under extreme panic, investors are prone to make irrational decisions, leading to panic selling, which in turn triggers unexpected price drops.
[For reference only, not as investment advice]
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ETH
Current price: $2801.65
Intraday analysis
1️⃣ Structural interpretation
If braking is not possible in the 2800 area, then the probability of going near 2500 is extremely high. Judging from the current trend, I hope that there will be a wave of market inducement.
2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics
Capital flow: There is a major negative impact on the capital side. The former supporting forces left the market one after another, causing Ethereum to lose an important pillar and triggering the market to enter a new stage of vulnerability.
On-chain data (trends of the "truck cards" of large investors): Large holders are selling assets. James Butterfill, director of research at CoinShares, said that cryptocurrencies are experiencing heavy selling by whale investors who follow the logic of the four-year cycle. Large holders have sold more than $20 billion in assets since September.
Exchange updates (market "sentiment" thermometer): Highly leveraged longs suffered particularly heavy losses. In the past 24 hours, the amount of liquidated positions across the entire network reached US$831 million, of which US$696 million was liquidated for long positions, accounting for the vast majority. This reflects that bullish leverage traders are the main losers during the decline.
3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day
If the market situation appears to be weak near 2900 during the day, if we are aggressive, we can try short selling. Conservatives can only consider shorting when the price is at least around 3,000. The bullish forces have been suppressed for a long time, so be careful of a last-ditch situation, that is, the trend of continuously pulling the positive line to end the bullish and short-squeezing market.
4️⃣ Risk warning
Risks of spread of ecological bad news: Market sentiment is secretly deteriorating, which has seriously affected the market's institutional demand expectations for ETH. We need to pay attention to whether such negative news will have a lasting impact.
Risk of market linkage: The trend of ETH is highly correlated with BTC. If the big brother BTC cannot stop the decline and continues to decline, it will be difficult for the little brother ETH to survive alone, and the decline may be amplified.
High Volatility Risk: ETH’s intraday volatility is generally greater than that of BTC. In the current downward trend, this means that it may fall deeper and faster, which is a great test for position management and stop loss setting.
[For reference only, not as investment advice]
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Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the personal views of Mr. Fengshen and does not constitute specific operational recommendations. If you operate based on this, you are responsible for your profits and losses. Investments are risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.
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