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Solana (SOL) is trading at around $136.70, down 4.31% in 24 hours. The price once fell below the key support of $130 during the day, and both bulls and bears are currently engaged in a fierce battle at this important psychological juncture. 📉 Analysis of core trends and key technical positions SOL is currently at a critical crossroads. After a consecutive decline, the price has hit key support areas near a long-term uptrend line that has guided SOL's growth since 2020. Analysis of key technical positions shows: · Resistance levels: $136-140 (immediate resistance, hourly downward trend line and 100 hour moving average position), $150-155 (strong resistance and psychological barrier) · Support levels: $128-130 (current immediate support, recent low), $120 (next key support), $105 (deeper support) Technical indicator signals are mixed, indicating that the market may undergo changes in the short term: · The conditions for an oversold rebound are present: Bullish RSI divergences appear on both the 4-hour and daily charts, suggesting that selling pressure may have been excessive, creating conditions for a technical rebound. · TD Sequential buy signal: A "1" buy signal from the TD Sequential indicator appears on the SOL chart. This usually occurs when downward momentum is exhausted, suggesting that a short-term bottom may be forming. · Downtrend Line Suppression: The downtrend line formed from the September high continues to guide each lower high, with prices remaining within the short-term downward channel. 🔍 Analysis of long and short factors in the news Negative factors (leading short-term sentiment): · Broad market sell-off: The entire cryptocurrency market is under pressure, with Bitcoin and Ethereum falling 4.20% and 4.58% respectively, driving SOL lower simultaneously. · Active Addresses Decline: The number of active addresses on the Solana network has dropped to 3.3 million, a 12-month low, reflecting declining user engagement. · Institutional position risk: Many recent public actions show that some institutions have begun to adopt strategic layouts with SOL as the core. Such capital movements can not only provide buying expectations in the short term, but may also bring about secondary risks of concentrated selling or stock price linkage. Positive factors (long-term value support): · ETF inflows continue: The Solana ETF has performed well, with data showing it has attracted significant inflows over the past period. In addition, asset management company VanEck also submitted an application for a spot Solana ETF to the SEC at the end of 2025. · Technology upgrades continue to advance: Solana’s core team is actively promoting a series of technology upgrades including Firedancer and Alpenglow, aiming to improve network performance, security and decentralization. · Developers are optimistic about long-term value: Solana core developer Mert Muntaz publicly stated that SOL is undervalued and believes that its reasonable value should be around US$1,000, reflecting insiders’ confidence in the long-term prospects of the project. 🤔 Operation strategy suggestions short term · Key decision points: Pay close attention to the $128-130 support area. If the price shows a stabilizing signal here (such as a long lower shadow), you can take a short position to win a rebound, with the first target of $136-140. · Risk control: If the price effectively falls below $128, you should consider stopping the loss and leaving the market to prevent the risk of further testing $120. · Rebound selling point: Any rebound to the $136-140 resistance zone is an opportunity to reduce positions. It is not advisable to be overly optimistic before regaining $150. Medium and long term · Layout strategy in batches: Consider the $120-130 range as a mid- to long-term layout area, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of building positions in batches. · Ideal adding area: The first position can be established in the range of 125-130 US dollars. If the price can fall back to around 120 US dollars, it will be a safer point to add a position. · Stop loss benchmark: Set the overall stop loss reference level below $118. · Strictly control positions: a single position should not exceed 10% of the total funds, and avoid using high leverage in highly volatile markets. · Pay attention to the trend of Bitcoin: Whether BTC can hold the key level will directly affect the sustainability of the SOL rebound. · Watch for technical breakthroughs: SOL needs to regain $150 to reverse the short-term decline, and $165-175 is the key confirmation level for a trend reversal. 💎 Summary and outlook SOL's short-term technical picture is extremely weak, but the oversold condition creates conditions for a technical rebound. The support strength of $128-130 has become the focus of competition between the long and short parties. For us, we need to remain rational in the current market environment: · Short-term operations should be fast in and fast out, strictly set stop loss, and try to capture the opportunity of oversold rebound. · Long-term layout requires more patience. The continuous institutional capital inflow brought by ETF and Solana's leading technical architecture are still its important long-term value supports. If SOL can successfully hold the support of $128-130 and break through $140 with heavy volume, it may start a rebound towards $150-155.； On the other hand, if $128 falls, it may test the $120 or even $105 area. Note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and all analyzes are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. More real-time guidance⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️  |
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