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Nakamoto 2025-11-24 07:50 86615人围观 BTC

In 2021, BTC was subject to mining regulations on May 19, triggering a sharp drop, and then continued to rebound to new highs, peaking in November.

In 2025 this year, the tariff war triggered a sharp decline in April, and then continued to rebound to new highs, peaking in October.

2021 BTC tops in November, in line with Nasdaq

In 2025, BTC will be the highest in October and Nasdaq will be the highest in November. It is temporarily unknown.

After peaking in November 2021, adjustments were made in the month of peaking, and the monthly line began to cross, with a total decline of 40% in December and January.

Then it started to rebound by 20% in February and March.

It peaked in October 2025, adjusted that month, and started to fall in November this month. Will it still fall next month? If it falls to around 72,000, it can be regarded as the mid-term bottom equivalent to 2021. Even if it does not fall, it is expected to rebound in the next 2-3 months. It will be a test for me if this happens, because this situation cannot confirm whether the bull market is over?

In 2022, BTC continued to fall in March 4 5 6, and fell by more than 60% based on the previous rebound. The situation in 2025 is that BTC first fell to 72,000, then rebounded to close to 10W, and then fell to 40,000. In this case, it should fall below the 200-week line near April next year.

I wrote this on November 1st, and it seems that it has dropped by half very quickly, which is really fast.

Investment is also a decision

First of all, the possible rebound opportunity is in front of me, but what I am facing is still the possibility of continued decline. In this case, the 20% chance of rebound is compared with the possible loss of 40%, which means that even if I invest, according to my risk investment ratio, I can only invest less than 20% of the funds.

If you are afraid of missing out on investment opportunities, the option is to observe whether there will be another plunge from April to June next year. If the plunge continues, buy at the 200-week line, and the winning rate can be increased to more than 50%.

The safest way is to buy in October next year. If it is the bottom now, but it is not a bull market, it will also enter a long bottom-finding stage, or even buy directly on the right side. This will be very advantageous in terms of investment psychology.

There is only one failure in my calculations, that is, the bull market is starting now, and I miss a big opportunity, but I think this requires Nasdaq to rise by more than 30%, and liquidity can trigger a bull market in BTC. I think the possibility is really low.