BTC can go long in the short term, but the long term has to wait - 2025.11.21 The latest opinions and analysis of the world's top traders

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 08:58 10718人围观 BTC

1. Currency market speed 1. Altcoin market excluding the top 10 altcoin total market value daily chart, The support level of 235B has fallen below and rebounded at the 200 support level. 2. BTC.D Bitcoin market value accounted for BTC.D Bitcoin market va

1. Currency market speed

1. Altcoin market

Excluding the daily chart of the total market capitalization of the top 10 altcoins, the 235B support level has fallen below and rebounded at the 200 support level.

2. BTC.D Bitcoin market capitalization share

BTC.D Bitcoin market value accounts for 58.92%. The daily decline shows that BTC is weaker than mainstream altcoins.

3. Liquidation heat map

Judging from the liquidation heat map in the past week, long liquidity has been swept away, and short liquidity is concentrated above 93K.

4. Panic and Greed Index

The panic and greed index is 11, which (CMC statistical caliber) has hit a new low in many years, almost reaching single digits.

2. Speed pass of currency bloggers

1. Top Trader Pigeon Eugene Ng Ah Sio

(Pigeon has not been updated)

2. Top trader Joshua

Updated starting at 12:45 on November 21, Beijing time:

At present, I mainly hold cash and plan to wait until the end of November.

Although it has fallen below the $90,000 range that was previously focused, in any case, the real bottom depends more on the inflow of funds into the stock market rather than the price itself.
It remains true: Crypto market declines are starting to look smaller compared to stock market declines.
At the same time, skew (skewness indicator) is continuing to rise.

Anyway, because of the existence of quant funds, if the stock market falls, Bitcoin will also fall with it. That's why you need to look at the SKEW value.

When the decline of Bitcoin is smaller than the decline of the stock market, it means that institutions are quietly building positions.

Those who do altcoins: You can enter the market and shoot and run in the short term.

Those who do Bitcoin: In this environment, just do ultra-short-term/day trading.

That's roughly the rhythm.

Everyone, for the sake of the 11,000 friends who are trying to buy the bottom, please read it again carefully.

Some people spent a lot of energy, endured a lot of pressure, and even lost all their accounts in order to catch the so-called "bottom".
At least all the traders I have seen spend a lot of effort on this matter. Me too. I've been like this before.

But here’s the key: There are very, very few moments when all the reasons align perfectly and you truly “confirm that this is the bottom.” Extremely rare. In most cases, it is only after a period of time that you look back and realize that the bottom was there.

Why is this happening?
Because various factors such as price trends, reactions to the news, and macroeconomics will slowly align one by one later, which will lead you to the conclusion that "that is the bottom."

So the next question is:

Can you really hold on to the bottom you copied?

Most people can't. Because as mentioned above, it takes time for these factors to gradually align, and during this period, it is difficult for you to survive the sharp fluctuations in prices.

This is why we need risk management, position management, and portfolio management.
But these are also very difficult and require a lot of experience to be accumulated slowly.

Therefore, the time when it is really easiest for us to make money is actually:

After the bottom has appeared
After the market enters a clear upward trend
The kind of market where everyone can make money

This is the stage where we should concentrate the most and invest the most time.

Please don't waste too much time and stress in the probability game of "it may or may not be the bottom".

The bottom this time is definitely determined by the macro environment. Not a certain price range, but macro factors.

Please go back and read the tip I gave everyone on April 10 to buy Bitcoin spot, and the reasons I gave at that time.

Updated at 19:07 on November 21, Beijing time:

I set a stop loss near 79.9k and tried to make a Bitcoin bet (long order).

Updated at 20:37 on November 21, Beijing time:

“The position was increased and the stop loss was finally raised to 81k. ”

(Joshua cannot buy the bottom in the long term for the time being, and can only do short-term trading within the day when doing long. There is no specific point for the real bottom, and it depends on the macroeconomic environment. )

3.Trader Vivian

Updated starting at 4:04 on November 21, Beijing time:

Important reminder for cryptocurrency and stock investors

When we had our first weekly close below the 55-week EMA, we had planned to re-evaluate the move.
Our initial plan is: if the weekly close is above 103k, we will continue to hold.

There are now 3 days until the weekly close. But if the market continues to weaken - current volume simply isn't enough to push the price back to 103k.

So we are most likely to close below the 55-week EMA for two weeks in a row.
And this is - indeed a bear market structure.

83–85k is the average price range of the weekly EMA100, and it is also a very strong support area.

Therefore: 83–85k → 97–99k is a retracement of the 55-week EMA. After a pullback, the price will most likely be pushed back to 69k, which is the next major support.

Investor Plan

Therefore, as an investor, you should start to reduce your positions in batches:

·88k: First batch, 25% reduction in position

·93k: Second batch, 25% reduction in position

·97–99k: Complete all exits (around Christmas)

The same holds true for stocks, even if the structure is not broken and is still holding up today.

The summary is as follows:

·88k → first 25% sale

·93k → second sale

·97–99k → Final exit

·Time window: now until Christmas

About BTC’s Swing Long strategy

BTC will drop to the 83–85k area. Since our average price is 97k, the only thing we can do is "save the position".

The plan is as follows:

1) Wait for the daily close

2) If the daily line closes below 3T (almost certainly), when backtesting 3T, first close half of the initial position

3) Add this position back at 83-85k, and exit at 97-99k near Christmas.

If 83–85k fails to hold, we will lose the other half (stop loss) there.

If total (total crypto market capitalization) holds 3T, the position can be maintained, but if 3T is really the bottom, the price should "quickly recover within 3T after sweeping a circle", and will never make such a big drop in the key position of red K.

If you have an ETHFI limit order on Blofin, consider switching to NEAR.
Taking a short position reduces drawdowns.

Summary (for empty order management)

·It’s time to start reducing short positions in batches

·Now: first reduce 25% of the initial position

·3T backtest: another 25% off

·83–85k: Add the rest back

·Close all positions around Christmas at 97–99k

(Vivian has surrendered, no longer looking at the bull market, and plans to cut off its spot positions in batches. )

4. Top trader DonAlt

Updated at 16:06 on November 21, Beijing time:

Don't get me wrong, I do have the urge to buy, because the current "trampled to death" market is usually the time to start looking for buying points. But for me, we are in a huge vacuum now. Will I miss the true bottom before the rebound?
Yes, it's entirely possible.
But I would rather do this than eat another K-line that drops $20,000. I would rather wait until bulls enter the market on a large scale,
Or the short seller will do things cleanly and thoroughly.

I might consider making a rebound order at 72–74k with a target of 82–84k.

Until then I will continue to be stubborn: ignore all price fluctuations and wait for more people to "die" or wait for some heroes to jump in and save the market.

I will never be that hero. I am too old to do such things.

(DonAlt plans to wait for BTC to fall to the 72-74k range before buying for a rebound. He believes that the risk of bargain hunting is too great now. )

5. Top Traders DeFi^2

Updated at 11:58 on November 21, Beijing time:

At the 86k position, this is the first time in a long time that I feel that BTC is very suitable for long-term accumulation.

On shorter time frames, when equity markets are weak, BTC behaves like a high-beta risk asset；
But in the long term, it continues to decouple and develop upwards - as the digital gold of choice globally, the supply is increasingly scarce.

When deciding whether to "pile up," don't confuse a short-term trading framework with a long-term investing framework.

(DeFi^2 believes that when BTC drops to 86K, you can start buying for long-term currency hoarding purposes. This is long-term holding and not short-term trading. )

6. Top Trader Pentoshi

Updated at 11:52 on November 21, Beijing time:

I was supposed to be on vacation, but seeing prices like this I still had to buy some $BTC.
I personally think 83–85k is at least a good rebound position.

For reference only (FWIW)

During the entire decline during this period, I never once asked anyone to buy these "bottom-buying declines."

However, Bitcoin has fallen by US$40,000 from its high point, and has fallen by more than 30% in a short period of time. At least in the local (short-term) view, it is already a bit oversold. It may not be a bad thing to start buying some now to bet on a rebound.

The last time I posted about buying Bitcoin was probably in April, around 74k.

I don’t know if this is the bottom, nor am I calling the bottom.
But I think there is a high probability that this range is only a few percentage points away from the local bottom.

The position has been filled. Let’s see how things go in the next few days.

By the way, something interesting is:
From the time Saylor started buying BTC 5 years ago, until now, the rate of return actually cannot beat the risk-free interest rate... basically, it's so funny that it doesn't work. In total, he earned less than 10%.

As usual, I buy everything in stock. Good luck guys. Don't get too caught up in the emotion of the moment. All good things take time.

(Pentoshi bought some BTC spot at the bottom today. )

7. Trader Mockingbird

Updated at 15:00 on November 21, Beijing time:

This is a graph I drew a month ago, assuming the four-year cycle was still in effect.

And now with the potential for bad things to happen, it's more likely to happen than before:

·DATs may be selling BTC to protect their stock prices

·DATs may transform or be acquired by new narratives

·ETF outflows continue amid weak capital market environment

·The threat of quantum computing (probability rises from 0% to about 20%)

(Mockingbird believes that there are more and more negative factors in the market and it is turning into a bear market. )

8. Wave Theory Liu Yudong

BTC November 21, 2025

The rise of 15476--124500 is over.

Starting from August 14, it is a retracement of its 0.2-0.618, which is usually retracement, but it is best not to fall below 70993. If it falls below, it is not good.

The 0.382 retracement is at 82867.

Before November 24, it is possible to rebound above 82867

Steamed Buns (ZEC) November 21, 2025

750 This adjustment is more likely to take the form of a combination.

If the combined y wave is not a triangle, it needs to fall below the w wave bottom 424;

If the combined Y wave is a triangle, it can contract laterally without falling below the W wave bottom of 424.

For the Y wave triangle, 631-596 is the support area.

After the adjustment starting at 750 finds its end, there will be the next wave of rise, with the target of 1158.

(Liu Yudong believes that BTC has rebounded recently. The ZEC support zone 631-596 has fallen below today, and there is still a possibility of falling below 424. )

3. Summary

Today, BTC dropped to as low as 80,600, a 24-hour drop of 10%. This is despite a continuous decline for a week. This kind of decline has not happened for several years. Many big guys believe that it is not possible to buy the bottom in the long term, but it is possible to rebound in the short term. The picture Joshua drew tonight should be relatively accurate, you can refer to it.

For me, there is no need to buy the bottom at all. I am already deeply invested. Fortunately, I stopped profit on Grass yesterday. Those who did not make a profit before have already been deeply invested. However, I have not surrendered yet. In a few days, I will decide whether to cut the meat and run away in advance based on the rebound situation.

statement:

The above information is for reference only, not trading advice. The currency circle is high-risk, so please be cautious when participating.

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