BTC fatal blow

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 09:05 22820人围观 BTC

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Jiaolian's ["Bitcoin History"] Chapter 76: The Fork War This chapter records several major fork events in the history of BTC, especially in the 2017-2018 cycle. The two most famous hard forks are the BCH fork on August 1, 2017 and the BSV fork on August 16, 2018.

Below, Jiaolian compares the chapters in the book with the price chart of BTC that year.

Strictly speaking, BCH is a hard fork from the BTC main chain, while BSV is a hard fork from the BCH main chain.

BTC is the father, BCH is the son, and BSV is the grandson.

Since the BCH hard fork in 2017, BTC has not actually undergone a hard fork so far.

Some upgrades and improvements are also completed in the form of soft forks. A typical example is as recorded in the article ["Taproot has been activated: It's not that Bitcoin evolves slowly, but that we evolve slowly"] on November 15, 2021, that the taproot upgrade was successfully soft forked.

A classic soft fork standard is BIP-9.

BIP-9 uses a certain bit in the version number field in the BTC block header to indicate the miner vote for a certain soft fork version.

Starting from the set voting start time, the voting progress will be evaluated every interval of the mining difficulty adjustment period (about 2016 blocks, about 2 weeks).

When the support signal ratio exceeds 95%, it is deemed to have obtained enough computing power support and enters the LOCKED_IN locked state, ready for formal upgrade. After another difficulty adjustment cycle (approximately 2016 blocks), the status changes to ACTIVE, declaring the upgrade successful.

Otherwise, if a sufficient proportion of support signals cannot be collected after the preset timeout period, the upgrade will be declared failed.

Back then, Segregated Witness successfully completed the soft fork upgrade using the BIP-9 process.

However, the process of BIP-9 is very long, and it takes a long time (sometimes as long as a year) to complete the voting, and the voting threshold required for passing is also high (95%).

Therefore, the taproot upgrade at the end of 2021 did not adopt BIP-9, but adopted a variant called Speedy Trial. The quick voting method only takes 3 months and can be completed with 90% computing power support.

The camera zooms back to today.

Under the pressure of community criticism, the maintainers of Bitcoin Core insisted on merging and releasing the code that relaxed the size limit of the data carried by OP_RETURN. This is the Core V30 version, or Core30.

The June 8, 2025 Jiaolian article ["Bitcoin Core Development and Transaction Forwarding Strategy"] compiled the Bitcoin Core maintenance team's defense of its decision.

June 10, 2025 Jiaolian article ["Beware! Bitcoin Core has been merged with PR#32406"] introduced that the Bitcoin Core maintenance team has insisted on merging the relevant code, and the release has become an established fact.

In that article, Jiaolian wrote: “Jiaolian can’t help but worry that this forceful action by the Bitcoin Core maintainer team will cause a tear in the community consensus and cause a deeper impact and damage to the value of BTC, just like the hard fork over the block expansion dispute in the second half of 2017 caused short-term strong pain to BTC. It is still impossible to accurately assess how big the impact of this incident will be, how long the impact will last, whether it will become one of the inducements for BTC to enter the deep bear market, and other issues.

In the worst-case scenario, the BTC community consensus breaks down, which will provide an excellent narrative theme for short sellers to bet against BTC returning to zero. (may not happen)」

Looking back, BTC was about 110k at that time.

There is an undercurrent.

Bitcoin Knots client maintainer and developer Luke Dashjr, who insists on opposing Bitcoin Core's decision, has been trying to prevent this from happening.

On October 13, 2025, it was recorded in the internal reference of the teaching chain ["Internal Reference: The 40th Week of Trump TACO Bloodbath Market Leverage Cleansing and Bone Cure"] that Bitcoin Core V30 was officially released.

At that time, BTC had just hit a record high of 126k on October 7 and retreated to around 114k.

Luke Dashjr and opponents of Core30 are working hard to advance a new proposal dubbed BIP-444. (Because the current maximum number for a BIP proposal is 443, if they successfully propose it, the number will happen to be 444. )

The experimental code for this proposal is in the Knots code base and is called ReducedData Temporary Softfork (https://github.com/bitcoinknots/bitcoin/pull/234).

Just a few days ago on November 16, Luke Dashjr said in the code comment area:

「It is recommended to only use a 55% threshold for this. Miners signal readiness, not vote. If the community supports this approach (a must for any deployment), the only factor that may cause delays is the readiness of miners, and the 55% threshold is sufficient to reflect this. Once that threshold is reached, remaining miners still have a two-week lock-in transition period to complete the upgrade. 」

On November 17, netizen @zndtoshi warned that Luke Dashjr seemed to want to bypass the soft fork standards and do his own thing.

This led to a crazy confrontation between the two big guys, Luke Dashjr and Adam Back (the inventor of hashcash, the first cited author of the Satoshi Nakamoto white paper, and the CEO of blockstream company).

Unlike many cypherpunks of Satoshi Nakamoto’s generation who are almost invisible in the world, Adam Back is one of the very few who is still high-profile and active in the encryption community.

However, Jiaolian seems to have mentioned in the internal reference that Adam Back is not a stupid geek who only knows how to work. He has long taken advantage of the bull market and cashed out a lot of BTC he had accumulated in the early years from the OTC channel.

Luke Dashjr, who is facing the same line, also leaked the key a few years ago, allowing hackers to loot all the BTC he had accumulated for many years. From this point of view, the two big guys are really at odds with each other. You also must not have a halo effect on your mind.

The BTC community is somewhat torn right now:

Those who support Core30 accuse those who want to create BIP-444 of "attacking" BTC. This kind of split has impacted the market's confidence in BTC.

Opponents of Core30 accuse the expansion of Core30’s adoption rate of putting BTC into an unprecedented crisis. This is also one of the underlying reasons why a large number of OGs (old guns) lose confidence and continue to sell.

Of course, there are also people who are not afraid of big things and say that Bitcoin doesn't care.

If the soft fork goes smoothly, substantial results may be seen in 3-4 months at the earliest.

Next year, around March 2026, we may face a big test.

Whether BTC has received a fatal blow, or whether BTC has given a fatal blow to some people, we will have to wait and see.

It’s just that people with big cakes in their arms can’t help but tremble a little, right?

...

On Thursday, 2025.11.20, the crypto market temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, and BTC bottomed out at 88.6k again (886 is homophonic to goodbye? ) and then rebounded to above 92k. Gold is currently trading near $4050. The U.S. dollar index rose above 100 points. usd/cnh 7.12, usdt 7.11.

... This issue contains a total of about 6,000 words of internal reference. The main contents include: market dynamics, macroeconomics, thoughts on making money, falling below cost, uniswap foundation financial report, IBIT's large outflow, entering the bear market area, Vitalik warning, the Federal Reserve's October minutes, etc.

Click on the title to continue reading 11.20 Teaching Chain Internal Reference ["The Road to Making Money"]...

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(Disclaimer: None of the content in this article constitutes any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is an extremely high-risk product and may return to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for yourself. )

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