Will BTC continue to fall?

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 10:09 16968人围观 BTC

BTC has fallen sharply in recent days. Is it entering a deep bear or a deep correction? 1. The current round of rules for the number of long-term BTC holders 1. Since the current round of rising prices of 1.6W, at least two new lows will appear after each

BTC has fallen sharply in recent days. Is it entering a deep bear or a deep correction?

1. Number of long-term BTC holders

The rules of this round

1. Since the current round of gains of 1.6W, at least two new lows will appear after each distribution of long-term holders ends (red turns to green).

current situation

2. Today, long-term holders are still distributing, but the amount is much less than before. What we need to do now is to wait for long-term holders to stop distribution (red turns green), and wait for the price to reach a new low to start buying. Radicals can start initial buying at the first time.

3. Of course, the premise is that this time it is a micro bear, not a deep bear.

2. BTC has realized losses (Realizes Loss)

The rules of this round

1 In this cycle, Profit/Loss will have a relatively large rise when it breaks below %12 for the third time. 2 Every time Profit / Loss breaks below %12, it will rebound slightly and then hit a new low.

current situation

1 The current Profit/Loss is 19.99%. According to historical rules, there will be a small rebound at this time, and then continue to new lows. 2. When Profit/Loss breaks below %12 for the third time, look for opportunities to enter the market.

3. Cost of different currency ages of BTC

According to the analysis of different holding costs (1m-3m-6m-12m), the pattern of the first two deep corrections in this round

The rules of this round

1. Green crossed the purple line twice and then started to fall for a while.

2. After the green line crosses the purple line, it starts a big upward trend.

Current situation (provided that the shallow bear is not the deep bear)

1. The green line has now crossed the purple line.

2. The price has crossed the yellow line, which did not happen in the previous two callbacks.

3. The price has rebounded today and will hit a new low according to history.

4. Conservatives can wait for the upward trend to confirm entry (the green line crosses the purple line)

To sum up: I prefer that this rapid decline is a deep correction. During this period, it may hit a new low, but it will not be a huge drop. Then it will fluctuate for several months and start a new round of gains. I have already started to buy 20% of the position at the bottom as planned. If you are a conservative, you can choose to stand still and wait for the deep bear to intervene. I will update in time when there are any abnormalities in the indicators.

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