English
76522
 On his third day as president, Trump finally responded to the question of the national reserve of Bitcoin. On January 23, he signed an executive order aimed at optimizing cryptocurrency regulation and ensuring that the United States maintains its global leadership in the field of digital assets. In order to fulfill his promise to establish a national reserve of Bitcoin, Trump instructed the White House encryption director, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Securities Regulatory Commission and other relevant department heads to form a special working group to evaluate the feasibility of establishing a digital asset reserve and formulate relevant standards. In addition, the executive order also states that the national reserve of digital assets can come from assets seized in law enforcement actions. After the executive order was issued, Polymarket predicted that the probability of Trump achieving a national Bitcoin reserve within 100 days increased from 30% to 40%. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin quickly surged from US$102,500 to US$106,000, with the largest intraday increase reaching 3.4%. Unfortunately, however, all gains were wiped out within the next 6 hours. The main reason for the lukewarm market response is that establishing a long-term Bitcoin national reserve mechanism requires a solid legal basis, which means that Congress needs to introduce supporting support bills. In addition, the funding sources of the national reserve plan involve government budget and financing, which also require congressional approval. As we all know, the decision-making efficiency of the U.S. Congress is low, and the interests of various forces are complex, making it almost difficult to reach a consensus in the short term. The most typical example is META's global payment system Libra, which ultimately died in Congressional debate. Due to the many challenges in establishing a long-term Bitcoin national reserve mechanism, Trump prefers to implement a symbolic national reserve plan: transfer the Bitcoins held by the U.S. Marshals Service to special funds under the Treasury Department (such as the Exchange Stabilization Fund) or fiscal plans, and announce that they will not be sold within a certain period in the future. Although the transfer of Bitcoin may involve the fiscal budget, it will not be difficult to pass the matter in the Republican-dominated Congress. Previously, many institutions’ optimistic predictions about Bitcoin’s trend in 2025 were mainly based on the assumption of government participation. If Bitcoin can occupy the same proportion of U.S. national reserves (5%-7%) and pension funds (1%-2%) as gold, the incremental inflows into the crypto market will reach approximately $50 billion, which will push the price of Bitcoin above $150,000. Now that the government's expectation of increasing its holdings has failed, Bitcoin's rise in 2025 will be greatly reduced. This is why we previously believed that this year's rise may only be 30% to 40%. ($122,000-$130,000) Although Trump’s new encryption policy on January 23 was quite satisfactory, the changes in some statements did reveal new opportunities. For example, the expansion of the State Reserve’s goal from Bitcoin to the entire digital asset field will undoubtedly be a major benefit to the ALTS token. At present, the ALTS token most likely to be included in the State Reserve is ETH. The main reasons are as follows: 1. ETH is the second largest crypto asset held by the U.S. government (53,900 coins). It is very convenient to transfer it directly to the State Reserve. At the same time, Ethereum is the second spot ETF traded on the New York Stock Exchange after Bitcoin, and has a complete compliance foundation. ； 2. WLFI of the Trump family has recently purchased ETH several times in a row. ETH and stETH account for 72% of the investment portfolio. This positive layout seems to have grasped some kind of benefit in advance.  Recently, the market has launched a movement to save Ethereum, and founders of well-known projects such as Lido, Curve, and Aave have joined the discussion. Although community members' views varied, their suggestions consistently focused on three areas. First of all, Ethereum should strengthen the construction of L1 and upgrade its infrastructure to ensure that it can compete with high-performance public chains such as SOL and SUI in terms of cost and efficiency. Secondly, reduce the blood sucking of L2 to L1, strengthen the binding between L2 and L1, and increase the application scenarios of ETH in L2. Finally, reform the Ethereum Fund, eliminate inefficient departments, formulate attractive incentive mechanisms, change the past "Buddhist" status, and add a window for external marketing. Under pressure from the community, Vitalik, who has been practicing Tai Chi, finally expressed his stance: he still supports the L2 expansion plan, but will impose a "toll" on L2. In the past, a large number of L2 projects have been promoting the de-Ethereumization of L2 while enjoying the security guarantee of L1. For example, poach projects on the Ethereum mainnet and reduce ETH's mortgage and consumption application scenarios in L2. The most typical example is that many L2 projects have gradually replaced ETH as L2 processing node collateral and network GAS with governance tokens. This has greatly weakened Ethereum’s influence in the ecosystem. The result is that Ethereum continues to be sucked by a large number of governance tokens valued at billions of dollars. In the era of rapid L2 expansion, ETH is more like a decentralized central clearing bank, and it is completely reasonable to charge channel fees or membership fees to member units for their transactions. In short, rebuilding the synergy mechanism of L1 and L2 has become the easiest and most effective way to boost Ethereum's fundamentals. So far, the author still believes that it is very likely that Ethereum will be successfully rescued. After all, the core competitiveness of decentralization and ecology has not been lost. With the gradual implementation of pledgeable Ethereum ETFs, hybrid ETFs, and State Reserve Ethereum, Ethereum is still expected to usher in a new round of incremental buying. Thank you all for your company over the past year! Finally, I wish you all a happy New Year, good health and happiness to your family! 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