BTC is no different this time

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 11:33 87863人围观 BTC

BTC is a new type of risk asset. If you put it on the Merrill Lynch clock, the logic is actually very smooth: in the recovery phase, new assets will always rise first, and traditional assets (stocks, gold, oil) will rise later.； The same goes for the rece

BTC is a new type of risk asset. If you put it on the Merrill Lynch clock and look at it, the logic is actually very smooth: in the recovery phase, new assets will always rise first, and traditional assets (stocks, gold, oil) will rise later. ； The same goes for the recession phase, with new assets turning around first.

Therefore, the downward trend of BTC is caused by the macro rhythm, which is normal. But you will find that as soon as the price drops, voices will immediately start shouting: "Bitcoin is a scam" and "it is going to zero." The joke is – this wasn’t said 30 days ago.

At that time, BTC was trading at US$120,000, and there were voices outside saying "eternal bull market", "the US government has bought it", "this time is different", as if the only people who didn't buy it were fools.

But here comes the question: Has BTC itself changed this month? No.

Even if you extend the timeline a little longer, the underlying logic of Bitcoin has almost never changed since the first block came out on January 3, 2009 to now. It is a ledger that runs according to rules and is very stable. If you really have time to take a look at how the bottom layer works, you will find that it is not as mysterious or complicated as you think. It is just a transparent accounting system.

On the contrary, market participants treat it as a sacred object when the price is high, and despise it as worthless when the price is low.

High price = good, low price = bad?

The logic is completely reversed, so most people perfectly complete the process of buying high and selling low, and suffer a huge loss.

Everyone is staring at some completely unimportant emotional factors, such as a certain data, a sentence said by a certain big shot, and how much a "folk master" bought.

What’s really important to study—what’s underneath? Why is it valuable? What does the future hold?

Very few people take the time to do it.

Opinions swing as prices rise and fall, which is why the vast majority of people don't make any money.

And my own thinking has not changed from beginning to end:

When the time + price is in place in 2026, buy it now.； If not, I will continue to wait.

The small positions in the middle made a rebound, but I didn’t move at all on the large positions.

There is no need to be emotional every day, and there is no need to follow others and shout slogans.

When the cycle comes, you naturally eat meat. When the cycle doesn't come, you hide aside and watch the show quietly.

It's that simple.