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Today afternoon, the cryptocurrency market experienced violent fluctuations, and ETH fell sharply in a very short period of time. The market began with a series of liquidations of highly leveraged long orders, which subsequently triggered the spread of market panic, coupled with large net outflows of institutional funds. The overall risk appetite quickly cooled, becoming the main driver of this sharp decline. timeline ⏰ 15:05 – The price of ETH fluctuates between US$2,796 and US$2,799. Long orders with 25 times leverage have been liquidated on platforms such as Hyperliquid one after another, and large liquidations have begun to emerge. 15:05–15:30 – The price of ETH quickly dropped from US$2,799 to US$2,680 (as low as US$2,643 on some platforms), falling by more than 4% to 5% in 26 minutes. Around 15:20 – The positions of large traders (such as those held by “Big Brother Moji”) began to be liquidated, with the liquidation range being approximately US$2,755-2,818, further intensifying the market selling pressure. 16:00 – ETH price stabilized slightly to around $2,715, but market sentiment remained weak and the shock pattern continued. Reason analysis🔍 This sharp market drop is mainly driven by two factors: High leverage serial liquidation effect A large number of traders using high leverage quickly hit the liquidation line when the price fell back, forming liquidation orders worth tens of millions of dollars. Serial liquidations not only caused local liquidity depletion, but also triggered broader panic selling, forming a negative feedback loop. Reversal of market sentiment and institutional withdrawal The uncertain macroeconomic outlook, fluctuating interest rate cut expectations, and significant capital outflows from ETF and other products have prompted institutions and retail investors to simultaneously reduce their holdings of risky assets, and investors have turned conservative, exacerbating the selling pressure on ETH. Technical analysis 📉 Based on the 45-minute K-line data of Binance USDT perpetual contract, ETH/USDT exhibits the following technical characteristics: Bollinger Bands and Price Position: The price is running along the lower track and has entered the oversold range.； KDJ and OBV indicators: KDJ convergence shows that the short-term decline may slow down, but OBV continues to decline, reflecting that selling power is still strong； Abnormal amplification of trading volume: Trading volume surged by more than 600% in a short period of time, but prices fell sharply, showing typical characteristics of panic selling.； Moving average system: The price is below key moving averages such as MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA50. The moving averages are arranged in a short position. The slope of each EMA cycle is negative, and the medium-term bearish signal is clear.； K-line pattern: Multiple negative lines in a row form a "three black soldiers" structure, further strengthening the bearish atmosphere.； Fund flow: OBV turned from positive to negative, and the net outflow of main funds was close to US$100 million, reflecting that large amounts of funds are withdrawing. Market outlook 🔮 After experiencing a rapid decline, the market has entered a stage of consolidation, and may follow the following trends: A short-term technical rebound may be expected: Since some areas are oversold, funds may be attracted to cover positions, bringing about a short-term rebound opportunity. However, due to the overall sluggish sentiment, the rebound space is expected to be limited. If capital outflows continue, downward pressure will still exist: If institutions continue to withdraw or macro sentiment fails to improve, ETH may still be under pressure, and further bottoming cannot be ruled out. There are opportunities to buy low from a mid- to long-term perspective: The sharp decline provides long-term investors with batch layout opportunities, but they need to pay attention to position management and risk control, and avoid high-leverage operations. To sum up, this ETH plunge not only releases the risks of highly leveraged transactions, but also reflects changes in market sentiment and capital trends. Investors should remain calm, pay attention to changes in key technical support and capital flows, and reasonably control positions to cope with subsequent fluctuations. Disclaimer: This article only represents the author's personal views and does not represent the position and opinions of this platform. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone. Thank you for your attention and support! |
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