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 Recently, affected by the overall depressed sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, the price of Dogecoin has continued to be under pressure and downward. Although the current price has corrected from the previous high, this well-known "meme coin" is still generally considered to be overvalued, driven by the market's strong expectations for the upcoming launch of the Dogecoin ETF (GDOG) by Grayscale. The market's heated discussion about GDOF may translate into a significant increase in trading volume on Monday, which is expected to reverse the short-term trend pattern of Dogecoin. Investor confidence underpins Dogecoin’s NVT ratio (network value to transaction volume ratio) has risen rapidly recently, reflecting a significant deviation between its market value growth and the actual transaction activity on the chain. This metric measures asset valuation levels by comparing market capitalization to on-chain transaction volume. A sharp increase in the ratio usually means that price increases are not fully supported by actual usage demand. Although Dogecoin has widespread community attention, its on-chain transaction volume has not kept pace with price fluctuations. This disconnect is more likely to trigger a price correction in a bear market environment.  It is worth noting that the timing of this valuation fluctuation highly coincides with the market’s expectations for the launch of the Grayscale Dogecoin ETF. If the ETF is successfully listed and attracts considerable capital inflows, it is expected to increase the activity of on-chain transactions, thereby repairing the NVT ratio and bringing prices and on-chain activities back into balance. Data on the chain releases positive signals Observed from on-chain indicators, Dogecoin’s activity indicator has maintained an upward trend for several consecutive trading days, showing that long-term holders’ willingness to hold positions is increasing. Activity indicators rise when a coin is “sleeping” rather than actively trading, indicating that core holders are holding on rather than selling. This trend is particularly valuable during market corrections - long-term holders often form the cornerstone of price stability and can effectively hedge against the volatility caused by short-term speculative trading. Their continued confidence in holding positions not only reduces the risk of panic selling, but also reflects their firm optimism in the recovery potential of Dogecoin after the market environment improves.  Price Trend: Key nodes approaching Technically, Dogecoin is currently trading at $0.143, fluctuating near the key support level of $0.142. The meme token remains in a month-long downward channel after multiple unsuccessful breakout attempts. In the current overall weak market environment, if there is no major positive stimulus, the rebound space of Dogecoin will be very limited.  The launch of the Grayscale Dogecoin ETF is likely to be a catalyst to break the current deadlock. If the product is successfully launched and receives a positive response from the market, the price of Dogecoin is expected to first break through the resistance level of $0.151, and then test upward the $0.165 mark. If this increase can be achieved, it will effectively break the current downward trend, attract new funds to enter the market, and thus reshape the market momentum. On the other hand, if there is no effective breakthrough, Dogecoin may continue to fluctuate below the $0.151 resistance level, thereby extending the current downward trend. That’s all for today. The bull market is in its second half. If you really can’t do it yourself,Don’t force yourself, come and learn from me: click on any door!  👉Thank you for your attention, click me to send! 👈 |
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