How long will Bitcoin continue to fall?

Nakamoto 2025-11-24 13:51 68478人围观 BTC

How long will Bitcoin continue to fall?

At the macro level, we still have to look at Dalio.

He recently expressed his views on the current global macro on Twitter, which is particularly worth mentioning.

The relationship between assets and money he proposes is a new perspective that is worth considering.

To put it simply, it is actually the relationship between asset valuation and cash flow.

Whether it is the stock market, real estate, gold or cryptocurrencies, their market capitalization is not equal to their actual monetary value.

What does it mean? That is, the price you sell something at and the actual final transaction price are always two different things.

Whether it's the balance in your stock account, the $100,000 in Bitcoin, or the trillions in Nvidia's market capitalization, they are all the seller's asking price.

The final price at which the transaction is concluded does not depend on the seller, but also on the price that the buyer is willing to accept.

And what do buyers look for? Look at the asset’s cash flow.

When the United States prints a large amount of debt and exports it to the world through the US dollar system, the valuation of assets increases, but assets also need to be able to provide equally high cash flows to support this valuation.

Otherwise, the investment return cycle will be lengthened, from half a year to one year, from 5 years to 10 years.

Whether it is company equity, the stock market, or cryptocurrency, when the valuation of an asset is not supported by cash flow, you can only rely on stories to support confidence.

But now people feel that many stories can no longer be told, such as AI. The market thinks it may be bragging.

This is the logic of U.S. stocks and even many other assets.

As for crypto, it stands to reason that it actually has little correlation with the stock market.

But there are several less-noticed developments affecting market structure.

1. Listed companies that specialize in buying Bitcoin will be excluded from the investment scope of index funds. This is a new recommendation recently issued by several index compilation companies. If nothing unexpected happens, it may be implemented immediately. This will affect billions of dollars in passive index fund positions.

Index funds are passive investments. If you plan to sell later, everyone in the market must sell first.

2. Chen Zhi and other large-scale crimes in the currency circle have made everyone discover that holding Bitcoin can be discovered and can it be frozen? What's going on? Bitcoin is still too unsafe. So except for ZCash, which helps everyone hide their money, other cryptocurrencies have fallen.

Bitcoin neither generates cash flow nor can it be used for the payment purposes for which it was originally designed. Looking at it this way, Bitcoin has no other strong support except faith.

But who can say that faith has no value? Dynasties will be overthrown, kings will die, governments will change, and haven’t Jesus and Buddha been worshiped for thousands of years?

Not to mention anything else, the Nanhai Guanyin in Nansha, Guangzhou is now very popular.

Even if there is no God, people will create one.

So, when will Bitcoin hit its bottom?

It may be when you don't care about this issue.

By the way, if you are interested in encryption and blockchain technology and applications and do not have study materials at hand, you can add me on WeChat (JiuCaiChuJi) to get them.

The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any advice.