(Today’s market analysis)
Today's market analysis
2025.11.24
BTC
Current price: $87616.08
Intraday analysis
1️⃣ Structural interpretation
It is currently in the rebound repair stage, but at the same time this stage is also the most sensitive stage. For such a market situation, we should be passive and focus on whichever side is strong.
2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics
Capital flow (market "blood transfusion" situation): Market capital is tightening. Data shows that inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have paused, while some digital asset trusts (DATs) are rebalancing and the supply of stablecoins is also showing a tightening trend. These are signs that the market is cooling down after months of active trading.
On-chain data (trends of big players’ “truck cards”): Tight liquidity and institutional selling are the main sources of stress. While Bitcoin has gained ground in market dominance (as altcoins have fallen deeper), pressure from tight liquidity, institutional selling, and weak demand remains.
Exchange dynamics (market "sentiment" thermometer): Highly leveraged traders continue to be purged. Previously, a wave of $2.2 billion in liquidations caused heavy losses on highly leveraged long positions, which further exacerbated market volatility and panic.
3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day
Wait and see what happens
You can consider that the upward attack is weak near 92000, and stagflation K-line patterns such as long upper shadow lines and bearish engulfing appear. You can consider short positions and test short positions, and follow the trend. The current market sentiment is extremely sensitive, and any operation must be light and set a strict stop loss.
4️⃣ Risk warning
Macro policy dependence risk: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy is the core variable in the current market. The global liquidity squeeze and the Federal Reserve's delay in cutting interest rates have put pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Market expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are wavering, and any "hawkish" signals may continue to hit Bitcoin.
Risk of technical breakdown: The gain or loss of key support levels is crucial. Bitcoin has previously fallen below key support levels and has developed a moving average "death cross" technical pattern, which has strengthened the market's selling pressure. If the $86,000 support is confirmed to be effectively broken, it may trigger technical selling, causing the price to accelerate its decline.
Emotional selling contagion risk: Market panic is contagious. Under extreme emotions, investors are prone to make irrational decisions, leading to panic selling, which in turn triggers unexpected price drops.
[For reference only, not as investment advice]
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ETH
Current price: $2871.13
Intraday analysis
1️⃣ Structural interpretation
The bull-inducing market is in progress. Here, we wait patiently for the market to give a short-selling signal. In the rebound stage, all you need to go short is patience. If you want to go long here, it will take a lot of time to adjust. So at this stage, we still have the opportunity to go short.
2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics
Capital flow (market "blood transfusion" situation): Altcoins generally face greater pressure. During the current market correction, Bitcoin’s dominance rose while altcoins, including Ethereum, suffered deeper losses. This suggests that funds may be flowing from riskier altcoins to the relative "safety" of Bitcoin.
Market structure (deep "context"): Market hot spots have shifted. Some analysts pointed out that although the entire cryptocurrency market seems to be in another "bear market" stage, the enthusiasm for the new track has not weakened much. For example, in the Perp DEX (Decentralized Perpetual Contract Exchange) derivatives track, many traders and community users pay more attention to the high-frequency, structured and game-based perpetual market. This could lead to a diversion of funds away from spot markets, including ETH.
3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day
If the market situation appears to be weak around 2880 during the day, if we are aggressive, we can try short selling. Conservatives can only consider shorting when the price is at least around 3,000. The bullish forces have been suppressed for a long time, so be careful of a last-ditch situation, that is, the trend of continuously pulling the positive line to end the bullish and short-squeezing market.
4️⃣ Risk warning
Risk of market linkage: The trend of ETH is highly correlated with BTC. If the big brother BTC cannot stop the decline and continues to decline, it will be difficult for the little brother ETH to survive alone, and the decline may be amplified.
High Volatility Risk: ETH’s intraday volatility is generally greater than that of BTC. In the current market environment, this means that any operation may face large price fluctuations, and it is important to manage risks through light positions and stop losses.
Risk of diversion of market hot spots: If market hot spots continue to focus on specific tracks such as derivatives and GameFi, market funds and attention that could have been used for ETH spot may be diverted.
[For reference only, not as investment advice]
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Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the personal views of Mr. Fengshen and does not constitute specific operational recommendations. If you operate based on this, you are responsible for your profits and losses. Investments are risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.
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