1. Three major signals: ETH’s rebound is not a wild guess

1. 
   Macro gift package: Expectations for interest rate cuts are high. The most popular news in the currency circle right now is that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. The CME FedWatch tool gives a direct answer: the probability of a rate cut in December has soared from the previous 30% to more than 80%. You know, in a low interest rate environment, investors love to invest in risky assets such as crypto-this is the hardest "east wind" for ETH.
   
2. 
   Institutions took action: ETF inflows were nearly 100 million in the first week. On November 24, the U.S. spot ETH ETF finally "opened up and flooded", with an inflow of 96.67 million US dollars in a single day, of which BlackRock lost 92.6 million. This was the first net inflow of funds in two weeks. Institutions have always been the "smart money". When they enter the market, they are more effective than retail investors shouting "bullish" 10 times.
   
3. 
   Giant whales are scanning goods: 200 million funds are bought at the bottom to increase positions. Not only institutions, but also big players are idle. Mining giant BitMine bought 69,822 ETH last week, spending more than 200 million U.S. dollars, and now has 3.63 million ETH in hand, accounting for 3% of the circulating supply. ； The whale wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH also accumulated 440,000 in a week - they voted with real money, indicating that their confidence in ETH is returning.
   

2. Technical green light: The path to $3,400 is clear

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  The core indicators have strengthened and the MACD histogram has turned red, indicating that upward momentum is accumulating.； The RSI indicator has almost touched the neutral line of 50, which is far from overbought, and there is plenty of room for growth.
  
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  The support and resistance are clear. The price of ETH is now close to the lower Bollinger Band, which has always been an area prone to rebounds.； The 24-hour trading volume is US$1.27 billion, and the liquidity is sufficient to support a breakthrough.
  
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  Password for passing $3,400: Stand firm at 3,132. The first level to break is $3,132 (the 20-day moving average). As long as ETH can stabilize this price and the closing price is above it for two consecutive days, algorithmic trading will follow the trend and buy, and there is a high probability that it will reach $3,400 within 5 to 7 days. ； Further up, the next target is $3,658.
  

3. Don’t just shout too much! Keep an eye on these risks

1. 
   If the key point cannot be broken, it will pull back. If it fails to attack US$3,132, it will most likely fall back to US$2,750. The deeper support is US$2,623. Don’t blindly chase the rise at high levels.
   
2. 
   The black swan risk has not disappeared. If the entire crypto market loses its chain, spot funds continue to flow out, or the Ethereum network upgrade is delayed, the rebound will be interrupted.
   
3. 
   The confidence level is only 65%. The probability of being bullish now is medium, not a sure win - you have to wait until it breaks through $3132 before the rebound trend can be confirmed. Before that, you have to keep one hand.
   

Finally, let’s be honest: What should I do now?

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  Those holding positions: keep an eye on $3132. If it doesn’t break this point, hold on to it. If it breaks and stabilizes, look at 3400.； If it falls back below 2750, reduce your position first to avoid risks.
  
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  Those who haven’t bought it: Don’t chase higher, wait for the pullback. It’s not cost-effective to enter the market at $2,900 now. Either wait until it breaks through 3,132 and then chase the trend, or wait for the pullback to around 2,750 before making plans.