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🌪️ Cold wave on the chain, macro headwinds: Ethereum returns to the "triple door" test of $4,000 Introduction: What’s going on beneath the surfaceRecently, Ethereum (ETH) has successfully rebounded from the lows in October and once again stood at the psychological level of $3,000, allowing some market optimism to temporarily recover. However, if we peel off the gorgeous coat of this "rebound" and deeply examine the underlying data of the Ethereum ecosystem, the subtle sentiments of the derivatives market, and the structural risks of the global macro economy, we will find that the road to the peak of $4,000 is being blocked by multiple headwinds. This rebound is not so much a clarion call to restart the bull market as it is a natural return to the "valuation comfort zone". Market confidence remains fragile, and Ethereum is facing challenges from On-chain activity cools down、Lack of confidence in derivativesandmacroeconomic shadowThe "triple gate" test. The first level: the on-chain engine cools down and the “deflation story” is frustratedEthereum’s narrative core, especially what was introduced after the “EIP-1559” upgradedeflationary mechanism, has always been a strong support for its value capture. In theory, as network activity increases, the ETH fees burned will exceed the new supply, making ETH a scarce asset. However, the rapid cooling of on-chain data is directly impacting this core narrative. 1. The cliff-like decline of TVL (Total Locked Value)According to statistics from DefiLlama, the total locked value (TVL) of the Ethereum ecosystem has increased fromPeak of $99.8 billionSlide all the way to$72.3 billion. TVL is the core indicator for measuring the ecological vitality of decentralized finance (DeFi). Its significant decline means that users are withdrawing assets from DeFi protocols, whether due to profit-taking, concerns about yields, or a contraction in overall market risk appetite. This means: Outflows > Inflows. As the core value capture application scenario of Ethereum, DeFi’s weakening appeal directly weakens the demand for ETH as “DeFi fuel”. 2. Shrinking network fees and transaction frequencyNansen’s data further confirms this trend:Network charges fell by 13% in a single week. The decline in network fees is directly related to the frequency and congestion of network transactions.
When activity weakens and ETH burning is insufficient to offset issuance, supply begins to expand instead.The deflation narrative temporarily enters a "dormant period"”. For an asset with an ever-expanding supply, its scarcity premium is naturally difficult to maintain. This is what ETH faces when it breaks through $4,000. The lowest structural resistance。 Second door: macro risks are heating up and external liquidity is tighteningThe rise of highly volatile assets such as Ethereum is inseparable from the support provided by the external macro environment.Ample liquidityandrisk appetite. But when the macro environment reverses and liquidity begins to tighten, high-risk assets will be the first to be reduced by institutions and large investors. 1. “Deficit expansion” and the risk of stagflation under the Trump administrationPresident Trump implemented after returning to the White HouseLoose regulation and proactive fiscal policy, is expanding the U.S. fiscal deficit at an unprecedented rate. While aggressive fiscal stimulus can stimulate the economy in the short term, in the long term it poses two core risks:
As traditional markets begin to price in higher long-term interest rate and inflation risks, investors will be more cautious in valuing “non-yielding” highly volatile assets such as cryptocurrencies. 2. The wave of layoffs and the rift in the “hot economy” narrativeU.S. companies laid off more than 25,000 people in November, a figure in sharp contrast to the official claims of a "hot" economy. Senior analyst Adam Sarhan’s view hits the nail on the head:
The wave of layoffs not only affects consumer confidence and purchasing power, but also represents companies’ conservative and pessimistic expectations for future profits. When there are cracks in economic fundamentals, traditional financial institutions and large capital usually take defensive strategy：Prioritize shrinking high-volatility asset positions. Ethereum, as a typical representative of "risk assets", has naturally become the first choice for **De-risk**. The third door: lack of confidence in derivatives and the “whale” hedging philosophyMarket sentiment is not determined solely by spot sales. The derivatives market is a "barometer" that reflects leverage confidence and short-term expectations. Current derivatives data suggests a **structural calm**, lacking leveraged momentum to drive a price breakout. 1. Downturn in funding ratesIn a bull market,The annualized funding rate of the perpetual contract (Funding Rate) tend to soar to6%–12%, which reflects the enthusiasm on the part of longs who are willing to pay high fees to maintain leveraged long positions. However, the current annualized funding rate of Ethereum is well below this range, atRelatively neutral or low level. This clearly shows: There is a lack of high-leverage, high-confidence speculative funds in the market to enter the market and go long. Although spot buying exists, the calmness on the derivatives side makes the market lack "explosive" upward momentum. 2. Giant Whale’s strategy of “spot on the left and hedging on the right”The most intriguing thing is the strategy of the whales. On-chain data shows that long-term holders (LTDs) successively bought about $1.3 billion ETH, deemed less than $3,000 to beComfortable valuation buying zone. This shows that they still have confidence in the long-term value of ETH. but, Meanwhile, early ICO participants sold off amid rallyUS$58 millionchips, and OKX’s top traders’The long-short ratio also shifted to a short tilt of 23%。 This combination of "hoarding currency + short selling" or "spot buying + derivatives hedging" is not a short-term trend of ETH, but aBe wary of short-term fluctuations：
This is a typical market uncertainty”strategy, reflecting the whales’ approach to the current environmentBe vigilant and conservative**. Open Interest has climbed to $35.8 billion. If there is any bad news in the macro environment, this huge hedging position may bring violent shocks in the Liquidation Cascade. Short-term deadlock and three major observation indicatorsTechnically, Ethereum faces the upper moving average and$4,000 round number levelThe formation of huge psychological and technical pressure. Although the flow of ETF funds has recovered, it is not enough to offset the tightening of overall liquidity and structural headwinds. For investors, impulsiveness is worse than patience. Before ETH can re-challenge $4,000, the market has to see the following Three key indicatorsStructural improvements: 1. ⛽️ Network fees and on-chain activities:
2. 🇺🇸 Macroeconomic data:
3. 📈 Confidence in derivatives:
in conclusion: Ethereum’s price rally is positive, but there is a lack of structural support behind it. The two "hanging swords" of on-chain activity and macro environment are still overhead. Before the above three major indicators see structural changes, Ethereum is likely to see and consolidate in the range of $3,000. now, Patience, Hedging and Long-term HoldingA balanced strategy is far more valuable than chasing short-term gains. |
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