ETH may be in a new round of decline, rather than a correction

Vitalik 2025-12-19 09:25 51659人围观 ETH

Let's analyze the large-level trend of ETH. Judging from the daily structure, ETH has rebounded since receiving support around 2620 in late November. The price has risen rapidly and touched the 3445 area near December 10. But what needs to be more vigila

Let’s analyze the large-level trend of ETH.

Judging from the daily structure, ETH has rebounded since receiving support around 2620 in late November. The price has risen rapidly and touched the 3445 area near December 10. But what needs to be more vigilant now is that this round of rise is not a trend reversal, but is more likely to have evolved into the starting point of a new round of decline, rather than a simple correction. This position corresponds to the key imbalance zone (FVG) at the early daily level, and is also an important defensive range for shorts. The price is obviously blocked here, and the rebound momentum gradually weakens.

1. The daily rebound structure has been destroyed

After the rebound high point was formed, ETH failed to continue the upward trend. Instead, it fell back quickly and fell below the key structural support during the rebound. This movement usually means:

The daily level rebound comes to an end；
The bullish momentum has been exhausted and the market has returned to a bear-dominated rhythm.；
The current uptrend looks more like a correction in a downtrend than a trend reversal.

2. Game of key support levels

From a large-level perspective, the weekly FVG area below is still an important support band in the short term. If prices briefly stabilize in this area, a technical rebound cannot be ruled out.

But what needs to be noted is:

As long as the price cannot regain its position above the daily imbalance zone,；
The rebound cannot rebuild the daily bull structure；

Then this kind of rebound is more likely to be a counterattack on the way down, rather than a new starting point for an increase.

3. If the support falls, you need to be alert to the emergence of new lows

Once ETH effectively falls below the current weekly support area, the market will be re-exposed to the underlying liquidity and larger-level imbalance area. Judging from the path, the price is not excluded:

Further testing of previous lows；
It may even set a new stage low to complete a larger level of rebalancing.

This is why at the current stage, the judgment of the trend is more important than the obsession with the point.

4. Summary of trading ideas

The large-level structure is bearish, and the daily rebound may have ended；
Before there is a clear structural reversal, the overall trend is to defend and follow the trend.；
Stay restrained on any rebound and focus on whether it is just a correction in the decline；
Real opportunities often appear after liquidity is fully released.

The market never lacks opportunities, but what it lacks is the patience to over-attack at the wrong stage.