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12.18|BTC/ETH daily market analysis

Vitalik 2025-12-19 12:45 16816人围观 ETH

(Today's market analysis) Today's market analysis2025.12.18 BTC current price: $86485.45 Intraday Analysis 1️⃣Structure Interpretation The current price is testing the 85,000 area again. The current decline is driven by continued spot selling rather than


(Today’s market analysis)

Today's market analysis

2025.12.18



BTC

Current price: $86485.45



Intraday analysis

1️⃣ Structural interpretation

The current price is testing the 85,000 area again. The current decline is driven by continued spot selling rather than high-leverage liquidation. This "slow bleeding" model is more difficult to reverse than a rapid decline. 84000 entity broke through, and the current maximum depth of decline is 77500.

2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics


  • On-chain data (core negative): Long-term holders (LTH) are cashing out at the fastest pace in more than five years. Data shows that the past 30 days have been one of the most intense periods of selling by long-term holders. Since the beginning of 2023, the number of Bitcoins that have not moved for at least two years has decreased by approximately 1.6 million.

  • Shrinking demand (exacerbating imbalances): The buying power that once absorbed these selling pressures is weakening. ETF capital flows turned to net outflows, derivatives market trading volume declined, and retail investor participation became thinner. The same selling pressure falls on a less liquid market with fewer buyers.

  • Positive signal: Some analysts pointed out that the selling by long-term holders may be approaching saturation. About 20% of the current Bitcoin supply has been reactivated in the past two years, which is close to a historical threshold, and such selling pressure is expected to subside in 2026.


3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day

Don’t go long in the short term before reaching 90,000.

If there is an obvious stagflation K-line combination (such as double top, bearish engulfing) in this area between 95000 and 96000, and we find a weak situation, we can consider shorting. The stop loss of 96,000 is physically broken, near 85,000. If 96000 breaks through strongly, we will look at 102000 above.

Only when a strong bullish reversal pattern (such as morning star, bullish engulfing) appears near 84500-83800 on the hourly chart, and the trading volume is significantly enlarged, can a technical rebound in a very small position game be considered. On the downside, focus on around 80,000, or even 77,500.

4️⃣ Risk warning

  1. Risk of liquidity depletion: The market buying order is weak, and any slightly larger sell order may trigger a sharp decline in price, causing the stop loss to be ineffective or the slippage to expand.

  2. Chain reaction of worsening sentiment: If the key psychological and technical support of $85,000 is confirmed to fall, it may trigger a new round of bull stops and panic selling.

  3. Macro-level uncertainty: Analysts pointed out that due to the intensive macroeconomic events this week, the market may still experience significant fluctuations and test the liquidity area below.



[For reference only, not as investment advice]

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ETH

Current price: $2826.53



Intraday analysis

1️⃣ Structural interpretation

The trend of ETH "shows its weakness and keeps falling." The price not only fell below 2915, but also led the entire cryptocurrency market lower, showing its current extremely weak state. Fortunately, the target of 2800 has finally been reached.

2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics

  • Sector drag (extra negative): The Layer 2 sector led the market decline today, with an overall decline of nearly 7%, and multiple projects experienced double-digit declines. As the core narrative of the Ethereum ecosystem, the collapse of the L2 sector has severely damaged the market's short-term confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem, forming negative feedback.

  • Funding and demand: It faces similar difficulties as BTC, and the market demand side is weak. Although there is a lack of separate ETF data today, the decline in overall market risk appetite and capital outflows will have a more severe impact on the more volatile ETH.


3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day

Weak varieties, only empty but not many. Before regaining its position and standing firmly at 3,000, one should not have any illusions about its rebound.

The intraday rebound should not exceed 3000, and the next operating space should be 2720-2800-3000-3030. In the absence of an upper or lower position break, priority is given to selling high and buying low, but you need to be cautious when buying low. We are temporarily looking for a rebound during the day. In the current environment, any behavior of "buying the dip" in ETH is extremely risky, and this idea must be completely abandoned.

4️⃣ Risk warning

  1. High volatility stampede risk: ETH is more volatile than BTC. In a downward trend, there may be a single-day decline that far exceeds the market, which is a great test for position management.

  2. Risk of ecological confidence crisis: If core narratives such as Layer 2 continue to slump, it may cause the market to question the long-term ecological value of Ethereum, leading to the outflow of funds to other public chains.

  3. Leverage liquidation amplifies volatility: Although the current decline is dominated by spot selling, rapid price declines may still trigger serial liquidations of highly leveraged longs, leading to an intraday "flash crash."



[For reference only, not as investment advice]

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Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the personal views of Mr. Fengshen and does not constitute specific operational recommendations. If you operate based on this, you are responsible for your profits and losses. Investments are risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.



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