executive summary

1. Market overview

1.1 Price performance

• Current price: $125.60 USD
• 24-hour change: -2.20% to -3.87% (different data sources)
• All-time high: $294.33 (January 19, 2025)
• Price retracement: -57.3% (from all-time high)
• Market value ranking: 6th
• Market Cap: $74.1B - $78B
• Circulating supply: 562M SOL
• Total supply: 616M SOL

1.2 Market sentiment

• Panic Greed Index: 16-21 (extreme panic)
• Market Sentiment: Bearish
• 30-day volatility: 3.12%
• Green Trading Day: 11/30 (37%)
• Social activity: Ranked 1 (58.8K engaged posts, 14.7M interactions)

2. Technical analysis

2.1 Key technical indicators

RSI Relative Strength Index

• Current RSI(14): 40.09
• Signal: Neutral to weak
• Strength: weak
• Analysis: The RSI is in the 30-50 neutral zone and is not oversold (<30). It has recently fallen from 46.99 to 40.09. The short-term weakness continues but is close to the oversold area, and support may be about to form.

moving average system

• Current value: $132.89
• Price position: -5.38% below moving average
• Trend: Downward
• Signal: Bearish in the short term

• Current value: $135.11
• Price position: -6.96% below moving average
• Trend: Downward
• Signal: Weak mid-term

• Current value: $147.98
• Price position: -15.03% below the moving average
• Trend: Continued downward trend
• Signal: Long-term adjustment depth

2.2 Support and resistance levels

1. $124-$125 - mid-2025 forecast low, psychological support
2. $115-$120 - Strong support area, tested multiple times
3. $100-$110 - Major structural support

1. 
   $132-$135 - short-term moving average intensive area
   
• EMA 12th and SMA 20th converge
• primary breakthrough goal
2. 
   $140-$145 – Medium-term resistance zone
   
• Recently sorted platform
• Need to break through with heavy volume
3. 
   $155-$165 - Strong resistance zone
   
• SMA 50-day area
• Rise may accelerate after breakthrough
4. 
   $180-$195 - Important psychological resistance
   
• Target position for the year
• Q1 2026 forecast interval
5. 
   $200+ - Key psychological thresholds
   
• A new upward cycle begins after the breakthrough

2.3 Chart shape analysis

• Formation of Bullish Engulfing Pattern
• Shows increased buying power
• May signal the end of a correction and a trend reversal

• Consolidation within a narrow range
• form a convergent triangle
• Waiting for directional breakthrough

3. Fundamental analysis

3.1 Milestone events

ETF approved (October 2025)

• October 28 - The first batch of spot SOL ETFs begins trading
• Approving Agencies: 21Shares, Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, CoinShares
• Becoming the third cryptocurrency to be approved as a spot ETF after BTC and ETH

• October 16 - Hong Kong ChinaAMC launches the world’s first spot Solana ETF
• April 2025 - Canada’s Toronto Exchange launches 4 SOL ETFs

• 7-day net inflow: $674M (despite price drops)
• JPMorgan forecasts first-year inflows: $1.5B (conservative estimate)
• Market expectations: $3B-$6B (optimistic estimate)

• Provide compliance channels for traditional investors
• Enhance SOL’s institutional recognition
• Good in the long term but priced in in the short term

regulatory breakthrough

• Provide a legal basis for stablecoins and institutional participation
• Solana benefits from clear regulatory framework

• Unify regulatory standards for crypto assets
• Conducive to Solana’s global expansion

3.2 Ecosystem indicators

DeFi Ecological Explosion

• Current TVL: $3.6B - $11.5B (different data source calibers)
• Lending market TVL: $3.6B (up 33% year-on-year)
• Full ecological TVL: $35B (TokenTerminal data)
• Growth rate: From $3B in December 2023 to $35B in 2025

• Stablecoins: 43% ($14.1B market cap, all-time high)
• Liquidity stake: $7.1B
• Lending agreement: $4.8B
• DEX：$4.8B

1. Kamino - $2.8B-$3.5B TVL (25-30% market share)
2. Raydium - $1.8B TVL (21% market share)
3. Jupiter - $1.6B-$2.5B TVL (19% market share)

• DEX average daily trading volume: $2.5B
• Monthly DEX trading volume: $107B (100% year-on-year growth)
• Jupiter daily average swap volume: $700M+

Network performance

• TPS (actual): 870.6 TPS
• TPS (peak): 4,709 TPS
• Transaction confirmation time: 100-150 milliseconds
• Average transaction fee: <$0.001
• Network uptime: 99.99% (2025 to present)

• 260 times faster than Ethereum (energy consumption comparison: 2,707 Joules vs 707,000 Joules)
• Transaction fees are 1/1000 of Ethereum

Developer Ecosystem

• Global ranking: 2nd (after Ethereum)
• New developers: 11,500+ (2025)
• Year-on-year growth: 29.1%
• Active dApps: 2,100+ (54% year-on-year growth)
• Smart contracts: 8,400+

• DeFi：32%
• NFT：27%
• GameFi：21%
• Others: 20%

Stablecoin Ecology

• USDC: $10B (up 39.6%)
• PYUSD: $445.3M (112.3% growth)
• FDUSD: rapid growth of 192.3%
• Others: Diversification

• Stablecoins are the infrastructure of DeFi
• High market capitalization shows actual usage demand
• Payments and settlement use cases grow

Pledge data

• Total pledged amount: 409.6M SOL (increased 4.7%)
• Staking value: $85.5B (up 42.4%)
• Number of validators: 1,875 (the most among L1 public chains)
• Pledge rate: ~73%

3.3 Organizational dynamics

• Forward Industries and Helius: Increased holdings by $2B in September alone+
• Treasury holdings growth: 230%
• Total holdings: 18.9M SOL (valued at $3.9B)

• VanEck - Provides staking services in partnership with SOL Strategies
• Galaxy, Jump, Multicoin Capital - Lead $1.65B Forward Industries Fund
• DeFi Development Corp - Partnering with Perena to develop stablecoin yield products

• JPMorgan: ETF inflows $1.5B in first year (conservative)
• Other Analysts: $3B-$6B (Optimistic)

3.4 Real-World Assets (RWA)

• Ondo's USDY
• BlackRock's BUIDL
• Plume RWA Nest vaults

• Connecting traditional finance and DeFi
• Addressable market size: Trillions of dollars
• Solana becomes one of the preferred platforms for RWA

3.5 DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure)

• Helium - Wi-Fi coverage
• Render Network - GPU rendering
• Other storage and computing networks

4. Competitive Landscape Analysis

4.1 vs Ethereum

• Performance far exceeds Ethereum
• Very low fees, suitable for high-frequency trading
• Better user experience

• Ecological maturity is not as good as Ethereum
• Historical stability records (past outages)

4.2 vs other L1

• DeFi TVL: 2nd (after Ethereum, surpassing Tron)
• DEX trading volume: Top level
• dApp revenue: accounting for 57% of the entire ecosystem ($207M/month)
• Developer Growth: 2nd
• Number of validators: No. 1 (1,875)

• Avalanche, Polygon, Cosmos - TVL and number of validators are lower than Solana
• BNB Chain - High degree of centralization
• Aptos, Sui - emerging L1, not yet proven

4.3 Market positioning

1. Institutional Grade DeFi
2. High frequency trading applications
3. Consumer-grade Web3 applications
4. Payments and Stablecoin Infrastructure

5. Market Forecast

5.1 Short-term outlook (1-4 weeks)

• Price range: $120 - $140
• Features: Oscillating within a narrow range, consolidating and accumulating funds
• Catalyst: Waiting for clarity on BTC’s direction

• Breaking through $135 resistance
• Test the $145-$155 area
• Trigger conditions: BTC stabilizes, ETFs continue to flow in, and DeFi data shines

• Breaking below $120 support
• Test the $100-$115 area
• Triggering conditions: BTC sharply corrects, market panic intensifies

5.2 Medium-term outlook (3-6 months)

1. 
   ETF funds continue to flow in
   
• Expected first year $1.5B-$6B
• Increased institutional configuration requirements
2. 
   The DeFi ecosystem continues to expand
   
• TVL breaks through $15B-$20B
• New protocols continue to be launched
3. 
   Improvement of macro environment
   
• Fed rate cut cycle
• Improved liquidity
4. 
   Network upgrade
   
• 2026 Alpenglow upgrade
• Performance and scalability improvements

1. ETF inflows lower than expected
2. Rise of competitors
3. Network stability issues reappear
4. regulatory policy changes

5.3 Long-term outlook (2025-2026)

1. 
   Institutional adoption deepens
   
• More ETF products
• Wealth Management Configuration
• Pension Admission
2. 
   Ecosystem matures
   
• "The killer app appears
• Enhanced cross-chain interoperability
• RWA market explodes
3. 
   Leading technology
   
• Maintain performance advantage
• Proof of stability
• Developer experience optimization
4. 
   Supply and demand balance
   
• High pledge rate (73%)
• Circulation supply is limited
• Demand continues to grow

6. Investment strategy suggestions

6.1 Risk preference classification

Conservative Investors (Risk Tolerance: Low)

• Position ratio: no more than 3-5% of the investment portfolio
• Entry time:
• The price remains stable above $140
• RSI breaks above 50
• Volume amplification confirmation
• Stop loss setting: $115 (-8%)
• Target revenue: $170 (+35%)

• SOL has extremely high volatility and is not suitable for conservative investors to place heavy positions.
• It is recommended to wait and see before BTC and the broader market stabilize before entering the market.
• Prioritize principal protection

Steady investor (risk tolerance: medium)

1. The first batch: Buy 25% of the position in the $124-$128 area (current price)
2. Second batch: Increase the position by 30% when it falls below $118
3. The third batch: additional 25% after confirmation of exceeding $140
4. Keep cash: 20% to deal with volatility

• Short-term goal: $150-$165 (20-30% profit)
• Mid-term target: $190-$210 (50-65% gain)
• Stop loss position: $110 (stop loss in batches, no more than 5% of the total position at a time)

• Strictly implement the batch plan
• Don’t chase higher, wait for the pullback to add positions
• Make profits in batches when reaching the target position

Activist Investors (Risk Tolerance: High)

• Open a position now: 35% position @ $124-$128
• Adding position plan:
• $30% added for area 115-$120
• $105-$110 area plus 20% (if touched)
• Keep 15% emergency fund
• Leverage advice: Use 2-3 times leverage with caution, as SOL fluctuates easily and can easily liquidate your position.

• Short term: $155-$165 (short-term arbitrage 25-30%)
• Mid-term: $210-$230 (band holding 70-85%)
• Long term: $300+ (bull market target)

• Set trailing stop to protect profits
• A single loss shall not exceed 8% of the principal
• Closely monitor DeFi data and on-chain metrics
• Pay attention to the correlation with BTC. When BTC falls, SOL falls more

6.2 Fixed investment strategy (DCA)

• Invest a fixed amount every week ($200-$1,000 based on personal financial resources)
• Do not judge short-term gains or losses, and insist on disciplined investment
• Recommended period: 6-12 months
• Average cost range estimate: $135-$155

• Amortize costs and reduce timing risks
• Low psychological pressure, suitable for office workers
• Participate in long-term ecological growth

• Possible losses in the short term
• Missed short-term volatility arbitrage opportunities

6.3 Advanced strategies

Staking income strategy

• Staking after purchasing SOL
• Annualized income: 6-8% (through LST such as mSOL, JitoSOL)
• Advantages: Holding coins and earning passive income at the same time
• Note: Unstaking takes time (epoch cycle)

arbitrage strategy

• If ETF premium > pledge income, sell spot and buy ETF
• If the ETF is discounted, buy the spot and pledge it.

• Monitor Coinbase Premium
• Premiums widen when U.S. demand is strong

Option Hedging

• Hold SOL spot
• Buy puts to protect on the downside
• Cost: 2-5% royalty

• Bull Call Spread
• Reduce costs and limit profits

7. Key risk warnings

7.1 Market risk

1. Extremely high volatility: SOL is a high beta asset with daily fluctuations of up to 10-20%
2. Follow BTC down: SOL usually drops more when BTC drops
3. Technical pullback not over yet: decline from $294 likely to continue

7.2 Technical risks

1. 
   Historical downtime records:
   
• Multiple network outages in 2022
• Despite 99.99% uptime in 2025, historical baggage remains
2. 
   Centralization concerns:
   
• Verifier hardware requirements are high
• Solana Labs has great influence
• There is a gap between "true decentralization" and
3. 
   Smart contract risks:
   
• DeFi protocols may have vulnerabilities
• Such as the Kamino vs Jupiter controversy

7.3 Competition risks

1. 
   The rise of Ethereum L2:
   
• Optimism, Arbitrum and other L2s improve Ethereum performance
• Some applications may be offloaded
2. 
   Emerging L1 competition:
   
• New public chains such as Aptos and Sui
• Technology may be more advanced
3. 
   Competition for market share:
   
• Competition in the DeFi space is fierce
• Continuous innovation is needed to maintain advantages

7.4 Regulatory risks

1. 
   SEC Classification Controversy:
   
• The SEC once classified SOL as an "unregistered security""
• Although the ETF has been approved, its legal status is still not entirely clear
2. 
   Global regulatory uncertainty:
   
• Different countries have different regulatory attitudes
• Policy changes may impact the market
3. 
   Pledge supervision:
   
• Pledges may be considered securities
• Impact on pledge income model

7.5 Ecological risks

1. 
   FTX aftermath:
   
• FTX was a big supporter of Solana
• SOL plunges after crash
• Although he has recovered, the psychological shadow is still there
2. 
   Token distribution:
   
• The proportion of VC and team holdings is relatively high
• Unlocking may cause selling pressure
3. 
   Ecological project failed:
   
• Depends on head projects (Kamino, Jupiter, etc.)
• If something goes wrong it affects the whole

7.6 Liquidity risk

1. 
   ETF inflows below expectations:
   
• JPMorgan predicts just $1.5B
• Much lower than BTC and ETH
2. 
   Trading Depth:
   
• Large transactions may suffer slippage
• More obvious during liquidity crisis

8. Summary of operational suggestions

8.1 Recommendations for immediate action

8.2 Monitoring at key points

• Federal Reserve FOMC meeting
• May cause violent fluctuations
• SOL is often sensitive to changes in liquidity

• ETF fund flow trends
• Organization year-end reconfiguration
• Bank of Japan policy meeting

• Alpenglow network upgrade
• May catalyze price increases
• Developer Conference and Ecosystem Update

• Will DeFi TVL break through $20B?
• Is there a "killer app""
• RWA market development

8.3 Position management suggestions

• Position % refers to the proportion of the cryptocurrency portfolio, not total assets
• Stop loss is a mandatory stop loss level and must be executed when it reaches
• Make profits in batches after reaching the target price (such as 50% @ short-term target, and hold the remainder until the mid-term)

9. Comparative analysis with BTC

9.1 Relevance

• The decline in correlation shows that SOL develops independent market based on its own ecology.
• But it is still affected by the general trend of BTC
• SOL usually falls more when BTC falls (high beta)

9.2 Beta coefficient

• BTC rose 1%, SOL may rise 1.5-2%
• BTC fell 1%, SOL may fall 1.5-2%
• High volatility brings high returns/high risks

9.3 Portfolio advice

• Conservative: BTC 80% + SOL 20%
• Balance: BTC 60% + SOL 40%
• Aggressive: BTC 40% + SOL 60%

• BTC (50%) + ETH (25%) + SOL (15%) + Others (10%)
• This balances risks and benefits

10. Conclusion

1. Short term (1 month): Cautiously optimistic, fluctuating in the range of $120-$140, waiting for direction selection
2. Mid-term (3-6 months): Actively bullish, targeting $170-$210, benefiting from ETF inflows and ecological growth
3. Long-term (2025-2026): Strongly optimistic, target $250-$300+, Solana is expected to become the preferred platform for institutional-level DeFi

• High Volatility = High Opportunity: SOL’s high beta nature makes it stand out in bull markets
• Open positions in batches: Buy in batches in the range of $120-$130, do not chase high prices
• Long-term holding + staking: Staking to obtain 6-8% annualized income and participate in ecological growth
• Strict risk control: Set a stop loss, and a single loss shall not exceed 8-10% of the principal.

• Investors who understand blockchain technology
• Investors who can withstand a 20-30% drawdown
• Investors who believe in the long-term value of DeFi and Web3
• The investment time span is at least 6-12 months

• Conservative investors with low risk tolerance
• Investors who need short-term stable income
• Newbies who don’t understand cryptocurrencies (it is recommended to start with BTC)

1. Only invest money that you can afford to lose in full
2. Do your research (DYOR)
3. Diversify your investments, don’t get all in
4. Set stop loss to protect principal
5. Consult a professional financial advisor when necessary

11. Appendix

11.1 Data sources

• Price data: CryptoCompare, CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap
• Technical Indicators: TradingView, own calculation
• On-chain data: DeFiLlama, Messari, Solana Beach
• ETF data: Bloomberg, SEC EDGAR, various fund companies
• Ecological data: Solana Foundation, Electric Capital, TokenTerminal

11.2 Explanation of terms

11.3 Important links

• Solana official website: https://solana.com
• Solana Explorer: https://solscan.io
• DeFiLlama (Solana): https://defillama.com/chain/Solana

• Solana Discord
• Solana Forum
• GitHub: https://github.com/solana-labs

• Messari: https://messari.io/asset/solana
• TokenTerminal: https://tokenterminal.com/terminal/projects/solana

11.4 Risk level assessment

11.5 Disclaimer

• Risk of total loss of principal: SOL price may return to zero
• High volatility risk: Single-day fluctuations may exceed 20%
• Liquidity risk: In extreme cases, it may not be possible to sell in time
• Technical risks: Networks may experience outages or vulnerabilities
• Regulatory risk: Policy changes could cause prices to plummet
• Black swan risk: unforeseen major events