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 Text | Qin Yan Editor | Qin Yan Source: understand notes The cryptocurrency Dogecoin has plummeted over the past two days after hitting all-time highs in wild trading. Dogecoin, which once had a total market value of US$60 billion, fell 14.22% in one day on April 19, reaching a low of about 27 cents. Dogecoin is currently trading at 0.33 cents, and after the plunge, its market capitalization has dropped to about $45 billion, according to coinmarketcap.com. Despite this, Dogecoin has also gained nearly 8,000% during 2021, which is much higher than the approximately 10% return of the U.S. stock market. Dogecoin has been criticized for rising too much. According to CoinDesk, the total market value of Dogecoin is at the same level as e-commerce giant eBay, and the "bubble" here can be imagined. There has been too much analysis on the reasons behind the popularity of this counterfeit digital currency that was born entirely as a joke. The key is, have the countless players pursuing Dogecoin realized the crisis? How long can Dogecoin remain “popular”? Countless Dogecoin supporters, at least on the Internet, are trying to help shed its image as a joke cryptocurrency and look to make it a quick and easy way to transact, although few retailers overseas have accepted it so far. By comparison, wildly popular Bitcoin has a market capitalization of over $1 trillion. Previously, Dogecoin fans posted various meme messages and videos on Twitter and TikTok using the hashtags #DogeDay and #DogeDay420, praying that Dogecoin would rise to one dollar on April 20.  The trend of Dogecoin from zero on April 19 to the present Judging from relevant data, the current social participation rate of Dogecoin is 931%, and its social dominance exceeds 536%. Since Musk, who is unanimously pursuing it, has not posted any news about Dogecoin on Twitter for nearly a week, the market sentiment for Dogecoin is actually beyond expectations. Relevant market research has also recently pointed out that the current price situation of Dogecoin is very absurd. It can be said that the current control of Dogecoin by the community and fans far exceeds the fundamentals of this cryptocurrency. For ordinary players, continuing to invest in this asset will be extremely risky, and no one except those bold traders dare to continue to face this kind of volatility. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at online foreign exchange trading platform OANDA, said: “The current trading enthusiasm may not make users completely abandon Dogecoin. ”His view on Dogecoin is to sell as soon as the price climbs. Indeed, Dogecoin, which has risen 8,000% in the past few months this year, was originally a "gadget" launched by founder Jackson Palmer as a joke comment in the face of the 2013 cryptocurrency craze and counterattack. But the Shiba Inu-shaped cryptocurrency has now replaced widely used cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin and Tether to become the sixth largest digital currency. Today, the adorable “Shiba Inu” is increasingly gaining traction on cryptocurrency exchanges and more popular mainstream trading apps, driven by fans and social networks (memes). Social Networks Make “Altcoins” Popular” According to data from CoinMarketCap, Diana Biggs, CEO of crypto startup Valour, said that more altcoins are taking advantage of the trend: “The recent rally in Governor Coin represents an interesting phenomenon. Over the last week, the price of Dogecoin has surged more than fivefold, reaching a record high of $0.42. ” Biggs added: “While Dogecoin as a meme digital currency was a joke on early adopters of digital currencies, fans on social networks, driven by celebrities like Musk and others, found the altcoin interesting and now have a new generation of retail investors with meme culture at its core. ”  Dogecoin's rise comes from a surge in online trading of stocks and cryptocurrencies by retail investors. This is also the result of frequent speculation at home by retail investors due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic this year. In fact, most digital currencies (including Dogecoin) have not seen much change in online payments or commercial use. This kind of air currency, which has little commercial value and can be used for self-entertainment, can only be a toy for currency speculators. It can be seen that social networks have a huge impact on this type of online transactions. In particular, the heavy use of online trading applications such as Robinhood has previously prompted social media to drive up GameStop Corp's stock. After encountering pressure from Wall Street, retail investors gathered on social networks even conducted "fire mergers" with hedge funds through the Internet. Ajit Tripathi, head of institutional business at decentralized finance startup Aave, said: “This is an extension of the same phenomenon. The online cultural atmosphere of social networks and retail investors has caused the valuation of Tesla’s stock to be much higher than its fundamentals. Previously, it was affected by the short-term short squeeze of GME (GameStop) and began to fight back in groups. ”Clearly, just as the GameStop incident was positioned as a battle game of 'Wall Street versus the little guy', Dogecoin will be positioned as a battle against established crypto giants like Bitcoin. Like other cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin's current inflated price is largely influenced by social media users, especially Tesla CEO Elon Musk's tweet about Dogecoin in February, which immediately sent its price soaring by more than 60%. Today, Dogecoin fans are still driving this cryptocurrency bubble. According to forecast data from betting aggregator US-Bookies.com, Dogecoin currently has an implied upside probability of 16.7% and will be worth more than $1 by the end of 2021. This is a significant improvement from the forecast data in early March (when there was only a 2.9% chance). What do you think of founders who have "run away"? Jackson Palmer, one of the founders of Dogecoin, is very confused about the current popularity of Dogecoin. He once tweeted: Please forget about the financial attributes of cryptocurrency. This technology can really change the world. Palmer also once said that he felt it was an honor to be thrust into the spotlight as the founder of Dogecoin in the first place. But social media has proven to be a double-edged sword. Soon, every opinion he expressed before was questioned by the outside world.  Jackson Palmer, founder of Dogecoin As early as 2015, Palmer, who was extremely disappointed with digital currencies, left the Dogecoin project. It was his disillusionment with social media that led him to abandon Twitter, YouTube and all other social media platforms last year, and he has since denounced the "cryptosphere" on Twitter as a perfect place to study large-scale ideological indoctrination and crazy hawking and speculation. Currently, Palmer has begun to express concerns about the future of cryptocurrency. Palmer has not increased his net worth through Dogecoin. Palmer’s personal worth is unknown to the outside world, but professional media reported last year that he had not been able to make big money from Dogecoin, although the current market value of Dogecoin exceeds 50 billion US dollars. “This is like a side project, similar to a side project that I do casually in my spare time," Palmer said in a recent interview with the media. "I did make a lot of people rich, but I didn't make any money. I'm just going to tell people that I created Dogecoin, which is fun. ” Palmer also pointed out that it was not just the huge wealth that passed by that had nothing to do with him, but also the hype and bubbles created by bankers and institutional investors about cryptocurrency. “In fact, something behind Bitcoin's attempt to decentralize is re-centralizing, isn't it? ”He pointed out that if at some point, Bitcoin's monetary allocation looks exactly like traditional Wall Street investment institutions, then what have we achieved? ” He once again expressed concern about the future of cryptocurrency, “In general, I think the cryptocurrency space feels more and more like a bunch of anarchists sitting around hoping to get rich overnight and come up with some funky business idea for decentralization and liberalization that often ends up failing. ” 
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