The technical trend of BTC is still not optimistic!

Nakamoto 2025-12-24 21:48 60052人围观 BTC

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When there is a floating profit in a position, people tend to become risk averse, and what they subconsciously want to do is "keep the profit first."

However, when taking orders against the trend, people tend to become risk-averse and repeatedly choose to "continue to gamble."

In the end, the person who can make the most profit is never the person who sees the most accurately, but the person who can continue to add positions when profits are floating, who does not hesitate to close positions when mistakes are made, and who takes the lead in limiting and overcoming human weaknesses.

#The technical trend of BTC is still not optimistic. As the price stabilizes and rebounds slightly, although it breaks through and stabilizes the 1-hour MA120/M200, it still has not emerged from the hourly level dangerous situation:

There is still an important game between the 4-hour level and the daily level:

At the 4-hour level, MA120/MA200 is still in a downward trend. However, with the recent price rebound, the downward trend of MA120 has slowed down, rising slightly and then crossing MA200.

This type of trend means that the long-term trend at the 4-hour level is still repairing, but the mid-term trend has turned bullish. The 4-hour level belongs to the daily level with a high probability of trend confirmation and reversal. MA120/MA200 is still in a downward trend, and after December 1, MA120 has been running downward after crossing MA200, which means that the mid-term trend is weaker than the long-term trend, and the technical outlook has turned bearish.

Interpretation:

Although the 4-hour level and the daily level seem to be in conflict, there is a causal relationship. The daily level is greater in weight than the 4-hour level, so the overall trend is weaker. However, once the price stabilizes, as time goes by, after the 4-hour level reverses from the mid-term trend to the long-term trend, it will gradually change the trend of the daily level trend line, thus reversing the situation.

It should be noted that the trend line as a technical reference is not 100%, it is only a high probability judgment. The final reference needs to match the macro and overall market environment.

Bottom shock:

It has been 52 days since the daily price fell below MA200, and the BTC price has fallen below 26% from MA200.

Assuming that we are sure that the bull market cycle still exists, then the most recent similar trend in history occurred on May 19, 2021. At that time, the stimulus of macro policies caused the originally declining BTC to continue to accelerate its decline, causing the price to fall below M200, and the final depth of decline was also about 26%.

Referring to that time, the price fluctuated below MA200 for about 82 days before the price finally broke through the trend and returned, thus starting a new main upward wave and pushing the BTC price to hit a high of 69,000.

If we simply look at it in a 1:1 comparison, the current price has been at the bottom for more than half of the time, and we need to wait patiently to usher in a reversal and breakthrough of the trend.

In addition, today is different from the past. Today's BTC has far exceeded that of 2021 in all aspects, so the bottom shock range is likely to be shortened, and after Christmas it may be a good opportunity.

On the other hand, the overall trend at the weekly level is still good, with MA120/MA200 still in an upward trend, and as the weekly MA120 continues to rise from 77,300, it will also bring better technical support to the subsequent price decline.

Final summary:

Although the daily line is still weak at present, there are signs of gradual reversal in 4 hours. The next step is to be more patient and wait for the price to continue to fluctuate below to complete the effective range bottoming, looking forward to ushering in another high point.

If the 519 trend in 2021 is replicated, once the subsequent trend is confirmed, it means that new highs are just around the corner!

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