English
24561
|
Early this morning, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the interest rate range of 3.50%-3.75% unchanged. After the announcement of this decision in line with market expectations, gold and silver rose sharply. This phenomenon releases a strong signal: global funds are accelerating the search for alternatives to the US dollar, and the demand for "hard currency" has been difficult to suppress. It also provides a key underlying logic for the current trend of ETH. Currently, Ethereum (ETH) maintains a narrow range of fluctuations, with prices repeatedly trading around the $2,900-$3,000 range. The weekly level continues the downward trend that started at the end of 2025. In the short term, it is under obvious pressure due to the overall crypto market sentiment. 1. Multi-cycle technical aspects: short-term weak shocks, long-term support asymptotic From a weekly perspective, ETH has been operating in a downward channel since its high point fell at the end of 2025, forming a clear weak structure of "lower points moving lower and higher points lowering". As of the week of January 23, it closed at US$2,961.97, a weekly decrease of 1.89%. Trading volume shrank to US$13.9 billion. Insufficient volume reflected sluggish market participation. At the indicator level, RSI is at 39.55, which is in the neutral to bearish range. ； The MACD indicator maintains a negative histogram, and the signal of trend suppression is clear. The price has fallen below the 20-week EMA ($3,111.87) and failed to effectively stand above the 50-week SMA (above $3,500). The long-term trend is still suppressed by the 200-week EMA (about $3,200). However, ETH is gradually approaching the main support level of the lower track of the descending channel (about $2,623). This position is also similar to the average holding cost range of long-term holders, and has strong defensive attributes. On the daily chart, ETH has recently been consolidating within a narrow range of 2906-3027 US dollars. It briefly broke through the psychological barrier of 3000 US dollars and then quickly fell back, forming a "short engulfing" pattern, indicating heavy selling pressure from above. On the resistance side, $2970 has become the short-term core suppression level. ； On the support side, $2906 is the recent shock low. If it falls below, it will accelerate the decline to the key support areas of $2800 and $2720. In terms of indicators, although the daily RSI is approaching the oversold range, there is no clear divergence signal yet. ； The negative kinetic energy of the MACD indicator has shrunk slightly, but the signal of a stronger trend is insufficient, and there is a high probability of maintaining a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term. Although the short-term trend is weak, a number of medium- and long-term technical forms have released positive signals. The third "arc bottom" structure has been formed at the weekly level, and the monthly chart is suspected of forming a "double bottom" and "inverted head and shoulders" bullish reversal pattern. If it can break through the neckline ($3,200), it will confirm the turning point of the mid- to long-term trend. Combined with the analysis of Wyckoff's methodology, the current market is in the redistribution stage, and a low-volume correction is accompanied by a signal for smart funds to reduce their holdings. It is necessary to wait for the amplification of trading volume and the emergence of accumulation characteristics to confirm the formation of a bottom. 2. Core influencing factors: the game of short-term suppression and long-term support Recently, the entire crypto market has fallen into the "extreme fear" range, with the fear and greed index dropping to 24. Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 mark, triggering a chain reaction, and the market leverage liquidation exceeded $1.5 billion within 24 hours. As a mainstream altcoin, ETH's trend is highly synchronized with Bitcoin's, and the liquidation of long positions has intensified the downward pressure on prices. At the institutional funding level, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of nearly US$900 million, further suppressing ETH's rebound space. On-chain data shows that whale addresses are active, and there have been signs of large amounts of ETH being deposited into exchanges in the early stage, suggesting that short-term selling pressure still exists. However, the whale's "realized price" continues to rise, close to the current spot price, and there is a high probability that buying will be increased in the $2,700-2,800 range, forming strong support. The ecological technology upgrade of Ethereum continues to advance, providing fundamental support for the long-term trend. Following the "Fusaka" upgrade, the "Verkle Tree" upgrade test network has been successfully deployed, which will significantly reduce node disk space requirements, improve network decentralization and transaction efficiency, and is expected to activate ecological activity and attract incremental funds. At the same time, the field of crypto infrastructure has maintained positive progress. The successful listing of BitGo reflects the long-term confidence of institutions in the crypto ecosystem, which indirectly benefits core assets such as ETH. At the macro level, the market's expectations for monetary easing in 2026 are competing with continued inflationary pressures. The threat of U.S. tax hikes on European goods has exacerbated global economic uncertainty. As a high-risk asset, ETH is susceptible to macroeconomic fluctuations. In terms of regulation, Ripple received preliminary approval for the Luxembourg EMI license, releasing a regulatory-friendly signal. However, the global encryption regulatory framework has not yet been clarified and may still become a potential inducement to market fluctuations. 3. Trend prediction and trading strategies Short term (1-2 weeks): ETH is likely to maintain a range of US$2,900-3,050. If it falls below the support of US$2,900, it will test the core support area of US$2,720-2,800.； If it breaks through the resistance of $3,050, it is expected to test the suppression level of $3,200 (200-week EMA). Medium and long-term (3-6 months): The downside space is limited, and the $2,600-2,700 range is a strong support zone. If it can hold this range with an increase in trading volume and a breakthrough in technical patterns, there is a high probability of starting a trend rebound. The target is $3,500 (50-week SMA) and the $4,000 mark. In terms of trading strategy, swing traders can test long positions in the range of 2900-2950 US dollars, with stop loss set below 2880 US dollars, and the target is 3030-3050 US dollars.； If the price falls below $2,900, you can take advantage of the trend and place short positions with a target of $2,750-2,800. Medium and long-term investors can wait patiently for the bottom confirmation signal, build positions in batches in the range of 2,700-2,800 US dollars, set the stop loss below 2,600 US dollars, and look at the long-term target of 3,500-4,000 US dollars. Institutions such as Goldman Sachs have made it clear that inflation is slowing and interest rate cuts are postponed rather than cancelled. Once the liquidity "faucet" is reopened, the cryptocurrencies that are most sensitive to liquidity will undoubtedly be one of the first assets to rebound. The current market leverage has been cleared to a relatively healthy level, accumulating momentum for subsequent market movements. Retail investors need to remember: hold core positions securely and treat core assets such as Bitcoin and ETH as “digital gold” allocations ； Keep an eye on macroeconomic trends and focus on when the Federal Reserve will release easing signals ； Save your cash bullets and wait to seize opportunities when the market really starts. |
|
|
|
|
|
