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(ETH) maintains a narrow range of shocks, with prices repeatedly gaming around the $2900-3000 range. The weekly level continues the downward trend that started at the end of 2025, and is under obvious pressure in the short term due to the overall crypto market sentiment. This article combines multi-cycle technical forms, on-chain data and macro factors to conduct a comprehensive study and judgment on the ETH market trend and subsequent trends to provide a reference for trading decisions. 1. Multi-cycle technical aspects: short-term weak shocks, long-term support asymptotic 1. Weekly level: The downward trend has not changed, and the key support is approaching From a weekly perspective, ETH has been operating in a downward channel since its high point at the end of 2025, forming a clear weak structure of "lower lows and lower highs". As of the week of January 23, it closed at US$2,961.97, a weekly decrease of 1.89%. The trading volume shrank to US$13.9 billion. The insufficient volume and capacity reflected sluggish market participation. At the indicator level, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39.55, which is in the neutral to bearish range and has not yet entered the oversold zone. ； The MACD indicator maintains a negative histogram, and the signal of trend suppression is clear. The price has currently fallen below the key moving average of the 20-week EMA ($3,111.87), and has failed to effectively stand above the 50-week SMA (above $3,500). The long-term trend is still suppressed by the 200-week EMA (about $3,200). If it continues to run below this moving average, the downward trend will continue. It is worth noting that ETH is gradually approaching the main support level of the lower track of the downward channel (approximately $2,623). This position is also similar to the average holding cost range of long-term holders, and has strong defensive attributes. 2. Daily level: short position dominates, the shock range narrows On the daily chart, ETH has recently been consolidating within a narrow range of 2906-3027 US dollars. It briefly broke through the psychological barrier of 3000 US dollars and then quickly fell back, forming a "short engulfing" pattern, indicating heavy selling pressure from above. On the resistance side, $2970 has become the short-term core suppression level, with technical resonance strength reaching 85/100, and multiple rebounds have been suppressed. ； On the support side, $2906 is the recent shock low. If it falls below, it will accelerate the decline to the key support areas of $2800 and $2720. In terms of indicators, although the daily RSI is approaching the oversold range, there is no clear divergence signal yet.； The negative kinetic energy of the MACD indicator has shrunk slightly, but the signal of a stronger trend is insufficient. There is a high probability of maintaining a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term, waiting for direction selection. 3. Mid- to long-term patterns: potential reversal signals are emerging. Although the short-term trend is weak, a number of medium- and long-term technical forms have released positive signals. The third "arc bottom" structure has been formed at the weekly level. Looking back at the historical trend, the emergence of this form is often accompanied by a trend upward trend. ； At the same time, the monthly chart is suspected of forming a "double bottom" and "inverted head and shoulders" bullish reversal pattern. If it can break through the neckline ($3,200), it will confirm the turning point of the mid- to long-term trend. Combined with the analysis of Wyckoff's methodology, the current market is in the redistribution stage. A low-volume correction is accompanied by a signal for smart funds to reduce their holdings. It is necessary to wait for the amplification of trading volume and the emergence of accumulation characteristics to confirm the formation of a bottom. 2. Core influencing factors: the game of short-term suppression and long-term support 1. Market sentiment and capital: significant short-term suppression Recently, the overall crypto market has fallen into the "extreme fear" range, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 24. Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 mark, triggering a chain reaction. The scale of market leverage liquidation exceeded $1.5 billion within 24 hours. ETH, as a mainstream altcoin, has a trend that is highly synchronized with Bitcoin. The liquidation of long positions has intensified the downward pressure on prices. At the institutional funding level, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of nearly US$900 million. The withdrawal of institutional funds weakened market buying support and further suppressed ETH's rebound space. On-chain data shows that whale addresses are active, and there have been signs of large amounts of ETH being deposited into exchanges in the early stage, suggesting that short-term selling pressure still exists. However, the whale's "realized price" (average holding cost) continues to rise, close to the current spot price. Historical data shows that this range has never been effectively broken down. There is a high probability that whales will increase their buying efforts in the $2700-2800 range, forming strong support. 2. Technology upgrade and fundamentals: solid long-term support Ethereum ecological technology upgrades continue to advance, providing fundamental support for long-term trends. Following the "Fusaka" upgrade, the "Verkle Tree" upgrade test network has been successfully deployed, which will significantly reduce node disk space requirements, improve network decentralization and transaction efficiency, and is expected to activate ecological activity and attract incremental funds. At the same time, the field of encryption infrastructure has maintained positive progress. The successful listing of BitGo reflects the long-term confidence of institutions in the encryption ecosystem, which indirectly benefits core assets such as ETH. 3. Macroeconomics and supervision: uncertainty still exists At the macro level, the market's expectations for monetary easing in 2026 are competing with continued inflationary pressures. The threat of U.S. tax increases on European goods has exacerbated global economic uncertainty. As a high-risk asset, ETH is susceptible to macroeconomic fluctuations. In terms of regulation, Ripple received preliminary approval for the Luxembourg EMI license, releasing a regulatory-friendly signal. However, the global encryption regulatory framework has not yet been clarified and may still become a potential inducement to market fluctuations. 3. Trend prediction and trading strategies 1. Trend Outlook Short term (1-2 weeks): ETH is likely to maintain a range of $2,900-$3,050. If it falls below the $2,900 support, it will test the core support area of $2,720-$2,800.； If it breaks through the resistance of $3,050, it is expected to test the suppression level of $3,200 (200-week EMA). The overall trend is choppy and weak, and we need to wait for the volume to confirm the direction. Mid- to long-term (3-6 months): The downside space is limited, and the $2,600-$2,700 range is a strong support zone. If this range can be held and accompanied by an increase in trading volume and a breakthrough in technical patterns, there is a high probability of starting a trend rebound. The target is $3,500 (50-week SMA) and the $4,000 mark.； If it falls below the lower track of the descending channel of $2,623, it will open up further downside space, and we need to be alert to systemic risks. 2. Trading strategy suggestions Swing traders: In the range of US$2900-2950, you can take a short position to test long positions, set the stop loss below US$2880, and target US$3030-3050.； If the price falls below $2,900, you can take advantage of the trend and place a short position with a target of $2,750-2,800. Strictly control the position and stop loss to avoid the risk of "pin insertion" in the market. Medium and long-term investors: Wait patiently for the bottom confirmation signal, build positions in batches in the range of 2700-2800 US dollars, set the stop loss below 2600 US dollars, and look at the long-term target of 3500-4000 US dollars.； At the same time, pay close attention to the breakthrough of the 200-week EMA ($3,200). After the breakthrough, you can add positions to follow up and seize trend opportunities. 4. Risk warning The crypto market is highly volatile, and leverage trading risks are extremely high. Stop-loss discipline must be strictly implemented to avoid heavy position operations. In the short term, we need to pay close attention to the trend of Bitcoin and the flow of ETF funds. In the medium and long term, we need to focus on tracking the progress of Ethereum technology upgrades and changes in global regulatory policies. The market is always in dynamic adjustment. Strategies should be flexibly adjusted based on real-time volume and multi-cycle signals, and respect market uncertainty. |
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