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There are certain differences in market opinions on whether the adjustment of Ethereum is over. However, judging from multiple recent sources, the short-term adjustment may be nearing its end, but the reversal has not yet been fully confirmed. Whether there will be "another wave" of rise still needs to be observed on key technologies and on-chain signals. ✅ Support for "adjustment or near end" signals: 1. Reduce the pressure of staking and unlocking In early September, Ethereum once extended the consolidation time because the number of pledged unlocks surged to 1 million. However, the number has now dropped back to 700,000-800,000. If it further drops below 500,000, the selling pressure will be significantly reduced, which will help the market stabilize or even rebound. 2. Technical support holds key support Ethereum fell back after hitting an all-time high of $4,888 at the end of August and is currently trading in a range of $4,250–4,400. Some analysts believe that as long as the short-term moving average and the key neckline position are maintained, there is still a chance to rise again in September. 3. On-chain indicators suggest “smart money” is accumulating funds The entity adjustment dormancy index fell below one million, which historically often corresponds to the macro bottom area, indicating that long-term holders have weakened their willingness to sell, or that funds may be deployed at low levels. --- ⚠️ But there are still uncertainties: - Seasonal factors are weak: September is historically one of the worst months for ETH, with an average decline of 6.42%. The current correction may be partly affected by seasonality. - ETF capital outflows and regulatory concerns: Although ETFs have been optimistic in the long term, short-term capital outflows and SEC approval delays still suppress market sentiment. - The technical aspect has not completely broken through: ETH has not yet regained the key resistance of $4,600. If it cannot effectively break through, it may still remain volatile or pull back again. --- 🔍 Conclusion: Ethereum is currently between the "end of adjustment" and "concussion accumulation". It has the conditions for a rebound in the short term, but whether it will start a new round of rise still needs to observe the following key points: - Whether the number of pledged unlocks has dropped below 500,000?； - Can it break out and hold $4,600?； - Trading volume and whether ETF funds are flowing back. Therefore, the adjustment may be nearing its end, but "another wave" of gains still needs to confirm a breakthrough signal, and it is recommended to pay close attention to the above key variables.   |
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