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 This year, Kyle announced his departure from Multicoin but chose to continue serving as the chairman of Forward Industries, Sol’s largest treasury company. Many new players may not be very familiar with Kyle and Multicoin. Simply put, Multicoin is one of the top VC firms in the crypto sector during seasons 20 to 22. Behind many major projects in various sectors such as Sol, Aave, Rune, and Grt, there is Multicoin’s involvement. The hedge fund it manages has achieved a return rate of 9,281% since its establishment in 2017. Kyle is also one of the co-founders of Multicoin. Many people were panicked upon hearing this news, especially since he seemed to want to add further insult to injury by stating that he no longer saw potential in Web3 and the metaverse narrative. He argued that blockchain was nothing more than a broken ledger, and that his focus now was on new areas of technology. I actually think this is a good thing. Last season, Multicoin’s signature tactic was what could be described as “essay-style” investing. Kyle and his team prepare very clear logical documents and systematic analyses of racing tracks when conducting their investment research. Doing it that way back then yielded very good results. At the beginning of the 2000s, there was an abundance of capital worldwide, with investment and financing amounts reaching as high as 700 billion US dollars. At that time, as long as you had a compelling story to tell, you could easily secure the funding needed. When internet VCs in the “gunpowder era” first heard about the concept of “encrypted storytelling” and had money available, they all rushed to get involved. The market at this time is willing to pay for the imagination of the next decade; it is also an era where clarifying a new paradigm can significantly increase returns. After the significant 22-year drawdown, Multicoin no longer had the same appeal in terms of market traction. However, at that time they shifted their strategy, moving away from storytelling-focused approaches to establishing a deep partnership with Solana, which resulted in them becoming one of Solana’s major supporters and reaping the benefits of the MEME phenomenon. Now Kyle has quit the game, and to put it bluntly, he said that he had exhausted all the benefits from the previous round and didn’t want to play anymore. Remember the three stages of a bear market that I mentioned last time? The first phase involves the clearing of leverage positions by the exchanges ； The second phase consists of a continuous decline as the big players withdraw from the market ； The final stage is the accelerated decline resulting from the cascading effects of leverage. Once these three phases are completed, the bear market will be almost over. So it is only when star players like Kyle leave the market that more space is created for new players to rise to the top. Only after these people have left the market and it has gone through a difficult period will it become clear who really still needs this industry and what things are truly useful. Everyone understands the logic behind this, and no one doubts that the industry has a future. However, the most common mistake is to think that we are currently in a cold winter and should wait until spring before entering the market again. Seems reasonable, but in fact it’s completely wrong. Because by the time spring arrives, the market has already accomplished two things: first, risks have been re-priced; second, the chips have already been distributed in advance ； Doing it this way essentially means forcing someone else to bear the uncertainty for you. Of course, this isn’t stupid; it simply implies a premise that must be accepted: You give up on most of the potential profits and only participate in the final portion of the market movement, thereby assuming the greatest risk of loss and emotional distress. For most ordinary people, this is almost the least cost-effective option available. Just think about it: as an individual investor without any information or analysis to guide you, every time you entered a bull market in the past, you ended up losing money. So why would you continue to do the same? Of course, there will always be people saying I’m wrong that shifting blame is just human nature and that one can act according to their impulses in everyday life. But if you can’t learn to take responsibility when it comes to investing, then losing money is certainly deserved. …1. The concerns regarding Binance’s liquidity and solvency continue to escalate. It is said that many KOLs have received threats and public accusations. I didn’t know whether these claims were true or not, so I asked around, but no one had actually received any threats; I just regarded it as some sort of hype. The thing is, these runs on banks are definitely happening; many communities have actually initiated campaigns to withdraw their money… To be honest, it’s hard to judge. Could a group of college students with monthly living expenses of 800 yuan really cause a bank to become insolvent? BN and Er Sheng have become targets; don’t even mention the second brother. What the casino owners want is traffic, and what the gamblers want is the opportunity to gamble. Whatever you choose to do, you must accept the consequences, whether you’re a betting dog or one of the “Two Saints”. 2. The FUD surrounding Tether (USDT) is heating up again. It’s quite normal; this happens every year. There’s not much to say; it’s just something that tends to happen during bear markets. 3. The loss rate for Kalshi users is significantly faster than that of traditional sports betting. Kalshi is a prediction market project similar to Polymarket, and it has become very popular recently. There have been reports suggesting that playing at Kalshi is not as good as going to a casino. Kalshi has denied these claims but has not provided any specific details. The underlying implication is that we aren’t really that decentralized, you know what I mean. Don’t play with it. …There’s not much left to talk about. I took a look at the stock analysis posts earlier, and everyone had a lot to say about things like sector rotation, interest rates, and news. In comparison, although there are sometimes updates in the crypto sector as well, the market still doesn’t even show a slight sign of respect or recognition. Watch more and move less, that’s it. · The trumpet prevents disconnection· You can ⭐star our official account and join us in this great revolution of web3 I'm A Kong, thank you for liking and sharing. Risk Warning: Digital assets represent a high-risk investment option. The general public is advised to approach blockchain technology with a rational perspective, enhance their awareness of potential risks, and develop correct concepts regarding currency and investment. |
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