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This is Qiqi Baicaidi’s first article 469articles Disclaimer: In the investment field, information changes rapidly. The stock market recorded in vernacular every day and the thinking process of the big pie circle do not constitute any investment advice. All profits and losses have nothing to do with me ☺️ Happy New Year to everyone in advance! Today is the last article of the 2025 Lunar New Year. This year has been very hard. I will start the vacation mode tomorrow. If there are hot topics during this period, please come up and have a chat. If you have anything to do, we can communicate on WeChat! It’s almost Chinese New Year, and there’s actually an assassin in the speculator! Xue Ji's hand-peeled pine nuts cost 218/catty, macadamia nuts cost 188/catty, and freeze-dried strawberry crisps cost 138/catty. Is Xue Ji's roasted seeds and nuts preparing for the Spring Festival and making money for the next 10 years in one fell swoop? You are all so rich, are you sure you are eating roasted seeds and nuts? I especially remember my article saying that the various braised ducks sold are priced so high that no one eats them, and now the store is closing at a loss. . . 150 grams of duck neck is priced at 19.8 yuan. Its financial report shows that it is expected to lose 160-220 million in the entire 25 years, which is the first time that the profit has been negative! In one and a half years, nearly 5,000 stores have been closed, with an average of 7 stores closed a day. It’s not that we don’t have demand, but that we need to grow at roadside stalls. 7 pieces of duck legs and 5 pieces of duck head. There is not much difference in taste. Anyway, I won’t let you be taken advantage of! ……Back to the market…… 1. Today, the Shanghai A-share index rose 0.09% and closed at 4131 points.； The total transaction volume in the three cities was 2,001.2 billion, with a shrinkage of 123.7 billion. Industry sectors are still booming, with 2,000 stocks rising. 2. SMIC’s fourth quarter report last year showed revenue of 17.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, total profit of 1.602 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5%, and net profit after deducting corporate income tax of 1.223 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%!  In the face of such huge industry dividends, thanks to the rebound in market demand and localization orders, the net profit has increased. It can only be said that this quarterly report is on the lower side. The current price-to-earnings ratio of SMIC is 182 times, and the market value is nearly one trillion, both of which are at a high level. Chip manufacturing is an asset-heavy industry. Let’s look at the subsequent capacity expansion. 3. The CPI data for January this year is out, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%! Food prices were flat this time, while non-food prices rose 0.2% ； Consumer goods prices increased by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.2%. January last year was the Chinese New Year period, and this year the Chinese New Year is in February, which shows that our inflation has indeed increased a lot. ……currency circle……… 4. The currency circle continues to decline, with Bitcoin falling to around 67,000 US dollars, Ethereum falling below 2,000 US dollars, and SOL falling to around 80 US dollars. The rebound in the past two days is almost gone. In today's currency circle, on the one hand, the project team just wants to be a friend and has no intention of protecting the market even if they have money. On the other hand, retail investors are constantly covering up their positions to buy lows and become shareholders of the project! There is nothing new in this circle. If you play like this until the end, you can no longer tell who is doing charity and who is in jail! 5. Do you have SOL in your hand this cycle? If there is no SOL, when do you plan to buy the bottom? Now the cost of bargain hunting is 3 times lower than the cost of listed company Forward Industries of US$230! Itchy? Never! The price of SOL, which I am optimistic about, is not going well, which is understandable in a bear market! During last year's bull market, SOL's K-line pattern failed, and buying orders were excessively consumed. As a result, if there is a rebound now, we cannot expect too much. A bear market rebound, like a bull market correction, will not be ideal.  Using the classic 5-wave theory as a reference, the target price of wave C is around 30 US dollars, which will be from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. Let’s look at the market volatility again. The volatility of SOL in the past six months has been quite large, and it is still around 4% now. You can also do some operations based on the volatility, such as short selling when the volatility is low, and shipping when the volatility is high.  But the more difficult thing in a bear market is to control your hands. Livermore was unable to control his own hands in the bear market and went bankrupt by leveraging the bottom! The activity on SOL is still acceptable. The Defi pledge TVL on the chain is 1.98 billion U.S. dollars, and the seven-day transaction volume is 154 billion U.S. dollars. DeFi data and transaction volume have not cooled down. It should be able to survive this round of bear market. I suggest that when the volatility reaches the lowest point in half a year or a year, the probability of profit is higher. 6.Comparing Aster with Hype, I am holding back my energy! HYPE has fallen from the high point to below 30 US dollars, and Aster is still insisting on taking small steps around 0.65 US dollars. It has some meaning of protecting the market, but don't forget, what is the purpose of protecting the market? To stand out in a market that is full of mud and sand, or to continue to ship at this price? Once you see this clearly, you will most likely know how to operate it. 7. Last night, the Binance alpha section launched the ESP pre-sale. The pre-market contract price was 0.083, and the new price was 0.07. This is basically no profit. This is reminiscent of the animal project ZAMA, with each level lower than the previous level! The only advantage of getting a new one this time is that you can get a refund if you don’t like it.  Welcome friendly exchanges! qiqismarthome If it is helpful to you, please use your little fortune-making hand to give us a like! 😊😊😊  |
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