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 In a Q&A article last week, I once wondered whether Hong Kong would take the lead in passing Ethereum spot ETFs? As a result, good news came out of Hong Kong on Monday: HuaXia, Harvest and Boshi, three fund companies with mainland China background, as well as HashKey, which has launched crypto transactions in Hong Kong, have received approval from the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission and plan to issue ETF products in Hong Kong that can invest in Bitcoin spot and Ethereum spot. This is undoubtedly a good thing for the long-term trend of Ethereum, and it also makes me more confident that Hong Kong will definitely play a unique role in the crypto world in the future. At the same time, we must also abandon the unrealistic speculative idea that this benefit can be immediately reflected in the currency price. Many times, the short-term fluctuations of the market depend on the conversion of emotions and the entry and exit of funds. This is full of too many accidental factors, which is not what we should pursue. What we should pursue should be the mid- to long-term and deterministic factors that determine the direction of things, that is, the fundamentals and main factors that determine the development of contradictions. This is true for our view of Ethereum's long-term trend, and even more so when judging Ethereum's long-term development and potential. Many readers have recently left messages asking: Is Ethereum in decline? As this round of bear market gradually moves towards a bull market, compared with Bitcoin and other blockchain ecosystems, it is obvious that Ethereum is showing a relatively weak trend in terms of currency price. Therefore, many investors have raised such questions. In my opinion, this is caused by a variety of factors, but none of these factors will hinder or limit the long-term development of Ethereum, let alone weaken Ethereum's future potential and status in the crypto world. Let’s compare Ethereum and focus on Bitcoin and Solana. In this round of Bitcoin ecological rise, the biggest driving force is the birth of inscription technology. The birth of inscription technology has spawned a series of new asset issuance protocols (such as BRC, ORC, Rune, ARC, STAMP, etc.) and assets, Bitcoin second-layer extension applications driven by these new assets, and various DeFi applications derived from the Bitcoin mainnet or second-layer extensions. Among these new applications, I think the most original and creative one is the asset protocol. Bitcoin’s second-layer expansion project currently mainly uses side chain + Ethereum EVM technology. These projects do not have much creativity in technology and ideas. The idea based on RGB++ is creative, but it still needs some time to grow and mature, and it is not yet in the mainstream position in the ecosystem. DeFi applications based on the Bitcoin main network or second-layer extensions completely follow Ethereum DeFi in terms of algorithms and technical frameworks, and the degree of innovation is even weaker. Among these three types of applications, assets are the source of ecological development, second-level expansion is the platform for ecological development, and applications are the ultimate driving force for ecological development. Only applications can lead ecological development in a long-term, stable and sustainable manner. Judging from the current situation, it is obvious that the degree of these three types of innovation is gradually decreasing. However, the applications that require the most empowerment and are the most critical are precisely in the weakest state of innovation. In an earlier article, I expressed certain concerns about the second-layer expansion of Bitcoin: I believe that due to the lack of Turing completeness of the Bitcoin main network, it makes it difficult for the second-layer expansion to fully obtain the security guarantee of the main network, which ultimately restricts the development of Bitcoin in terms of application and will cause the Bitcoin application ecosystem to have a visible upper limit. In other words, some applications can be perfectly and conveniently implemented on Ethereum, but are difficult or poorly implemented on Bitcoin due to the limitations of the main network framework. This limitation or lameness will eventually be exposed in a certain scene. So overall, Bitcoin’s most important application-side innovation still has not broken through the existing framework set by Ethereum. Compared to Bitcoin, Solana’s popularity this time seems to me to be more about the discovery of emotional value and the new reconstruction of old narratives. The so-called discovery of emotional value is the popularity and popularity of meme coins. I believe everyone already knows a lot about this. But no matter from the perspective of technology or application scenarios, this is not an innovation. It is still just repeating the path taken by Ethereum on Solana. This is just like Baidu is Baidu. It is never like Google and cannot have the ecological status of Google. The so-called new reconstruction of the old narrative mainly refers to the DePIN ecosystem emerging on Solana. There is much more here that deserves careful examination. Not to mention that many of these concepts have already been previewed in the wave of ICO in 2017. Even for some new projects, when I look at their descriptions, I feel that some of them are weird. Speaking of DePIN, Filecoin and Arweave, the two most promising DePIN projects that have been put into practice in recent years, are still working hard, and at best they can only tentatively describe the grand vision. The seniors with more seniority and greater potential don’t dare to say that they are already in the spotlight. Let’s wait and see how much real materials the new generation can bring to the table. On the last day of the just-concluded Hong Kong Web 3 event, Vitalik finally met with everyone offline again after a long absence. A video of Vitalik's live speech was released online, talking about how to use the latest cryptographic technology to further improve Ethereum. Vitalik in the video is exactly the same as the "alien" who "had no contact with the world" a few years ago, whether it is his gestures or his demeanor and tone. People's subconscious actions and words cannot lie. In such a flashy and noisy encryption ecosystem, this "alien" can still maintain its original intention so surprisingly. There are probably only a handful of such team leaders in the industry, if not unique. With such a spiritual leader leading Ethereum forward, there is no reason to worry about the future of Ethereum. In addition, the driving force and vitality of the Ethereum community and ecology are still strong ； The fundamental factors supporting the development and advancement of Ethereum remain strong. So I think Ethereum's weakness is only temporary, and I am still confident about its future. I don’t see even a hint of “decline” in Ethereum. ending Previous article: There is no need to panic about the market crash during the bull market stage In the crypto world, welcome to communicate and discuss together! Author WeChat: 570111  『Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. It is only for popular science learning and communication among enthusiasts. Please treat it rationally, establish correct concepts, improve risk awareness, and comply with relevant laws and regulations of the country and region where you are located. 』  |
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