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 Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been experiencing a continuous downturn, with the price of Bitcoin even hitting a low of $60,000 last month. However, last night (on the 4th), the price rebounded by more than 8% in a short period of time and even surpassed the $74,000 mark this morning； There was some subsequent pullback, and it is currently fluctuating around the level of $72,000. Looking ahead, some analysts believe this could be a sign that Bitcoin is beginning to stabilize, or even that its safe-haven properties are being revalued by the market. However, others argue that it might simply be a “dead cat bounce.” Furthermore, as U.S. President Trump has warned banks not to weaken their support for cryptocurrency initiatives, there is widespread belief in the market that the passage of the CLARITY Act will serve as a catalyst for the cryptocurrency sector to emerge from its current slump. Trump attacks the banking industry for trying to intimidate the legislation Recently, Trump posted on the social media platform Truth Social, accusing traditional banks of attempting to threaten and undermine the U.S. “GENIUS Act” – which establishes regulations for stablecoin issuers – and calling on Congress to pass the more comprehensive “CLARITY Act” as soon as possible. He emphasized that the banking industry needs to reach an agreement with the cryptocurrency sector, as this is in the best interests of the American people. The CLARITY Act, currently under consideration by Congress, aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in regulating the cryptocurrency industry. Although the bill was passed with cross-party support in the House of Representatives last year, it encountered obstacles when it was transferred to the Senate. In January of this year, its consideration was indefinitely postponed, resulting in a halt in legislative progress. 「“The returns on stablecoins” represent the biggest point of disagreement In fact, Wall Street banks and the cryptocurrency industry are currently in a standoff, with their biggest disagreement surrounding the regulatory approach to “stablecoin yields.” The issue stemmed from the fact that the GENIUS Act, initially designed to gain support from the banking sector, explicitly prohibited “interest-bearing stablecoins” and strictly forbade issuers from paying interest to users. However, since the act did not prohibit DeFi protocols, exchanges, and other “third-party platforms” from offering reward mechanisms, this caused significant dissatisfaction among banks. As a result, during the legislative process of the CLARITY Act, banks attempted to push for the elimination of any potential avenues that could generate profits. Breaking through $74,000 is seen as a sign of stability Regarding the rebound in Bitcoin, Rachael Lucas, a cryptocurrency analyst at BTC Markets, believes that Bitcoin’s breakthrough above $74,000 could be a sign that the market is beginning to stabilize after prolonged selling pressure. Additionally, the inflow of nearly $700 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States on Monday and Tuesday this week indicates a reversal after four months of continuous outflows. Arthur Hayes: This time, it might just be a "dead cat bomb"」 However, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that Bitcoin has not yet decoupled from American SaaS technology companies, and that this recent rebound might just be a “dead cat bounce.” He stated, “We are not completely out of danger yet; let’s stay patient.” New Fire’s CEO sees three key attributes in Bitcoin that are promising On the other hand, Weng Xiaoqi, CEO of Neofire Technology, stated that amid the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, Bitcoin once again demonstrated its ultimate role as a safe-haven asset. Its price surged by more than 8% in a short period of time. He explained that behind this “independent strength” was the fact that the market was reevaluating Bitcoin’s status as a safe-haven. He explained that, on one hand, compared to the physical properties of gold, Bitcoin offers the advantages of being available 24/7, having no entry barriers, and possessing high bandwidth—it also serves as a dynamic means for funds to escape. For example, after the air strikes on Iran, the trading volume and withdrawal amounts at Nobitex, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the region, surged rapidly. The peak withdrawal amount reached 3 million US dollars per hour. Secondly, the scarcity and anti-inflationary properties of Bitcoin have always existed; it’s just that these aspects were overlooked by the market in the short term. The total supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million units. This limit cannot be changed or increased in any way; new Bitcoins can only be generated through mining, and the rate at which new coins are produced halves every four years. Currently, the annual inflation rate generated by Bitcoin mining is only 0.8%, and it will further decrease to 0.4% after the reduction in production begins in 2028 ； During the same period, the annualized inflation rate of gold was approximately 1.7%, while the average annual growth rate of M2 in the US dollar over the past five years was around 4%. It is clear that the inflation rate of Bitcoin is significantly lower than that of both gold and the US dollar. Thirdly, the chances that cryptocurrencies will become true “global currencies” are increasing exponentially. Small and medium-sized economies struggle to maintain the value of their domestic currencies in the face of geopolitical instability and economic shocks. In the past, the US dollar was the only option, but as the credibility of the United States declines and a weaker dollar era arrives, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have gradually become the preferred choice for many people due to their security, high liquidity, ease of portability, and divisibility. This trend is also evident in the fact that by 2025, the annual trading volume of crypto assets in the Gulf region and its surrounding areas had exceeded $300 billion.  |
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