English
67815
  Author: Qin Jin On the last day of January 2024, public opinion surrounding the approval of Ethereum spot ETF was rampant. We predict that the possibility of Ethereum ETF passing is not non-existent. At least currently, the U.S. SEC has not characterized Ethereum as a security. This is a basic premise. On January 31, according to the latest report from Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Bank predicted that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may approve the Ethereum ETF in May. Because consider that May 23rd is the deadline to apply for VanEck and Ark 21Shares’ Ethereum ETF. The two asset managers were also the first to submit applications before the deadline. If the Ethereum ETF is viewed in light of the SEC’s roadmap for approving a Bitcoin ETF, analysts at Standard Chartered predict that the price of Ethereum will reach $4,000 before the Ethereum ETF is approved. That is before May 23rd. Before the U.S. SEC approved the Bitcoin ETF, affected by this news, Bitcoin had risen to nearly $490 million since around October 27, 2023. In 2023, Bitcoin rose by a total of 162%. Leading the crypto market’s rising list. According to Geoff Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, he expects that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of an Ethereum spot ETF will be the same as its approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. So what is the basis for the US Securities Regulatory Commission to approve the Ethereum ETF? In Jeff Kendrick's view, first of all, the US Securities and Exchange Commission did not characterize Ethereum as a security in its legal actions against encryption companies, and Ethereum has been listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as a regulated futures contract. This adds to expectations for the approval of the Ethereum ETF. Secondly, Grayscale once managed an Ethereum trust fund and hoped to convert it into an ETF. However, if the application is rejected, it is likely to cause Grayscale to appeal again. Jeff Kendrick said that we believe there is no fundamental reason for the US SEC to view Ethereum differently from CME. Kendrick is generally optimistic about the crypto market. Earlier this month, before the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved, he said Bitcoin ETFs were expected to attract $50 billion to $100 billion in inflows this year. Bitcoin prices could rise to $100,000 by the end of this year and $200,000 by the end of 2025. Since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, discussions surrounding the Bitcoin ETF have also begun. Among them, the most discussed one is the comparison between Bitcoin ETF and gold ETF. If Bitcoin is compared to digital gold in the encryption world, Ethereum is likened to silver in the encryption world. So will the Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF follow the same past growth trajectory as the gold ETF and silver ETF? On November 18, 2004, SPDR (State Street) launched a gold ETF. Over the next 8 years, the price of gold quadrupled + from its original $400 to $1,800, and its market capitalization increased by about $8 trillion from about $2 trillion to about $10 trillion. Today, the market value of Bitcoin is about US$750 billion, less than 1/3 of the market value of gold in 2004. If the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF continues to follow the growth trajectory of the gold ETF, what will the price of Bitcoin be then? On January 31, billionaire Tim Draper, founder of Draper Associates, said in an interview with the media that by 2025, the price of Bitcoin will reach $250,000 per coin. If the Ethereum ETF is approved and we speculate on the future trend of Ethereum based on the past growth trajectory of the silver ETF, we may also draw some similar conclusions. On April 28, 2006, BlackRock launched SLV (Ishares Silver Trust Ishares), the world's largest silver ETF. At that time, the average price of silver was close to US$14. Over the next 5 years, silver prices peaked at nearly $50 in 2011. During this period, the impact of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States cannot be ruled out, and hot money poured into the silver market. Subsequently, as the debt crisis was lifted, silver prices also fell rapidly. According to the latest data in 2021, the total market value of silver reached US$1.37 trillion. The current market capitalization of Ethereum is $28 billion. If we follow the past growth trajectory of the silver ETF and speculate on the future market value of Ethereum, there is room for growth of nearly 7 times. In addition, since 2005, the international silver price has begun to follow the gold price and rise sharply. "Great Wall Securities" once stated in a research report titled "Looking at the Future Silver Price from Financial Attributes" that silver has a close price correlation with gold and crude oil. In other words, it can be said indirectly that the past growth trajectory of gold ETF can also hint at the future growth space of Ethereum ETF? Dear readers, please star "Carbon Chain Value", otherwise you will not receive the latest push. Every piece of content we carefully create and select hopes to bring rational thinking and inspiration to readers.  |
|
|
|
|
|
