Introduction:
On December 23, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it had filed a lawsuit against Ripple, Ripple board member & CEO Brad Garlinghouse, and Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, accusing them of conducting unregistered securities sales of up to $1.3 billion.
The SEC believes that Ripple violated U.S. federal securities laws when it sold XRP. Among them, Garlinghouse and Larsen also sold unregistered XRP for a total amount of US$600 million.
On Christmas Day 2020, Ripple ushered in its “darkest moment” in more than 10 years since its establishment.
Bitstamp and Coinbase officially announce the delisting of XRP
On December 26, Bitstamp stated that in light of the U.S. SEC’s claim that XRP is a security, Bitstamp will suspend XRP trading for all U.S. customers on January 8, 2021. According to statistics from Messari founder Ryan Selkis, since the beginning of the year, XRP trading volume on Bitstamp accounts for 18%, ranking first.
On December 29, OKCoin announced that it would suspend XRP trading on January 4, 2021. OKCoin stated that this decision was made in light of the recent lawsuit filed by the US SEC against two Ripple executives.
On December 29, Crypto.com announced that it would delist XRP at 18:00 on January 19, 2021. Subsequently, U.S. customers will not be able to deposit XRP on Crypto.com, but withdrawals will not be affected.
On December 29, Coinbase stated that in view of the lawsuit filed by the U.S. SEC against Ripple, trading will enter limit orders starting at 6:20 Beijing time on December 29, and will completely suspend XRP trading at 2:00 Beijing time on January 20. The suspension of trading will not affect customer access to XRP wallets, and XRP will continue to be supported on Coinbase Custody and Coinbase Wallet. Statistics show that since the beginning of the year, XRP trading volume on Coinbase accounts for approximately 8%, ranking second.
Possible next scenarios
Next, there is a high probability that Kraken and other U.S. compliance exchanges will also announce the delisting of XRP based on the U.S. SEC’s lawsuit. Statistics show that since the beginning of the year, XRP trading volume on Kraken has accounted for approximately 5.5%, ranking third.
At the same time, with a high probability, the U.S. SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple and two core executives is expected to end in a settlement, with the amount of a fine of more than $100 million being paid to the U.S. SEC.
In the unlikely event that Ripple and its two executives took a tough stance, they chose to leave the United States and place Ripple's business headquarters in Japan, Asia, or the United Kingdom, Europe, to escape U.S. supervision.
XRP plummeted by more than 70% in one month, when should I buy the bottom?
In the past month, XRP has fallen from a maximum of $0.78 to the current level of about $0.22, with the maximum drop exceeding 70%.
In the past three years or so, the highest price of XRP was $3.3, which occurred on January 4, 2018, when the Bitcoin price was $14,960. The lowest price was $0.10, which occurred on March 13, 2020, when Bitcoin also plummeted to $3,800 due to liquidity problems in the crypto industry.
For most ordinary investors, the biggest concern is when to buy XRP at the bottom?
Previously, Messari CEO Ryan Selkis tweeted that XRP is expected to fall below $0.10 by mid-January. In the view of Bolian Finance and Qianba Capital, the probability of this possibility happening is extremely low.
The exchanges currently officially announced to be delisted are mainly compliant encryption exchanges in the United States. Exchanges outside the United States such as China, Japan, South Korea and other countries with prosperous crypto industries do not have strong demands to delist XRP. Excluding the stablecoin USDT, whether in terms of trading volume or market value, in most cases, XRP still ranks third, second only to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
XRP’s current price of $0.22 has, for the most part, reflected the pessimistic expectations of the US SEC suing Ripple. Therefore, Bolian Finance and Qianba Capital believe that now is the time to participate and buy XRP. Next, XRP may continue to fall with the fluctuations of the entire crypto market, but the decline will be limited.
It is worth mentioning that we generally do not encourage ordinary investors to participate in contract transactions, because from a gaming perspective, for most participants, the long-term rate of return is not high.
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