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 01 Although the currency circle has always been absurd, it is now moving in an increasingly absurd direction. (This part is an introduction to the currency circle, you can omit it if you don’t want to read it) You have all heard of Bitcoin by now. On May 8, 2011, Bitcoin was only $3.6 apiece. When the price was even lower before, some programmers even used hundreds of Bitcoins to buy a pizza.  However, what the programmer did not expect was that the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed thereafter, so that by 2021, its price had reached nearly $60,000 each:  Now one Bitcoin can not only buy pizza, but even a decent car. It has increased by 15,000 times in ten years, with an average annual increase of 1,500 times. Its craziness far exceeds bonds, stocks, real estate, tulips and other things that can be called "crazy" in human history. Previous news mentioned that an aunt spent 50,000 yuan to buy a stock in 2008 and then forgot about it. When she went to cancel her account this year, she found that it was already 5 million yuan.  But if the aunt bought Bitcoin and forgot the account, when she looks at it again, it may not be 5 million but tens of billions. This rate of return is enough to make people crazy. Even with such a high yield, many investors still scorned it for a long time, mainly because it had no anchor. Real estate speculators say: "The skyrocketing housing prices in big cities reflect the rapid development of the country's economy and the scarcity of land resources in big cities. People all over China want to come to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Of course, housing prices will always rise." ” “And what are the speculators? ”  Stock traders say: “Behind the stocks are real company operating data, and behind them are the operating conditions of these companies. During the epidemic, everyone cannot go out and can only play games at home, so Tencent will rise well. You see, sure enough. ” “And what are the speculators? ”  Indeed, before a major company announced its purchase of the virtual currency, Bitcoin was a complete zero-sum game. There is no value behind it, and there is no data to back it up. It all depends on how much new money comes in. So at that time, people in the currency circle used a concept to explain Bitcoin’s surge: “Bitcoin is decentralized” and “it has an upper limit. ” Decentralization means that Bitcoin cannot be regulated or traced, so it means freedom, which is a paradise for all kinds of black money. And having an upper limit means that it will not be issued indefinitely like the US dollar, and it will not be inflated due to the crazy money printing by governments. Anyway, there are only 21 million in total, and they will be gone after buying them. A well-known exchange wrote this when popularizing the advantages of Bitcoin:  They feel that "capped" and "decentralized" are the keys to the skyrocketing popularity of blockchain currencies. Then because of the surge and success of Bitcoin, more and more virtual currencies with strange names began to enter the market. Anyway, it has neither supervision nor threshold. Everyone can issue coins and everyone can make coins and play with them. As a result, there are thousands of “virtual Huobi” in the entire market. Among them are our protagonists today, DOGE (dog) coins and SHIBA (Shiba Inu) coins. 02 Look at this K-line chart:  This is the trend chart of the coin called DOGE in the recent period. On January 3, 2021, its price was still $0.008 each:  As a result, by May 3, it had reached $0.74 each:  It increased nearly 100 times in four months. And unlike Bitcoin in the early days, not many people knew about virtual currencies at that time, but Dogecoin rose so crazily in full view of the public. So much so that one month, another blogger asked me if I could buy Dogecoin. I said I wouldn’t buy anything I couldn’t understand. Then in this month, Dogecoin increased tenfold, which made me feel very guilty...  So who is this Dogecoin, and what is its value so that it can rise like this? The answer is that it has no value. It is exactly what the currency circle calls an “altcoin.” Its currency shape is basically a meme that has exploded on the Internet:  It is issued unlimitedly, and there are currently 100 billion pieces in circulation on the market:  Its official website is basically a college student's homework, with words of unknown meaning written on it:  It doesn’t even have a white paper, just a nonsense introductory video detailing what you can buy with Dogecoin:  Someone has interviewed the founders of Dogecoin. In fact, they issued such a coin out of a sense of fun and mischief, so they used the popular Internet emoji pack as their avatar, and then wrote a lot of nonsense. The purpose was to deconstruct the "we are valuable" statement in the currency circle. In 2013, there were two particularly hot topics on the Internet at that time: First, the previously unknown Bitcoin suddenly ushered in a cycle of rapid price increase, rising from a few dollars to dozens of dollars in a short period of time, which shocked everyone. Second, there is a Shiba Inu emoticon package called Doge meme that has become popular all over the Internet. People have forwarded this dog head to express various indescribable emotions such as "Wow", "Speechless", "Irony" and so on. At this time, Jackson Palmer, a marketing specialist in Adobe's Sydney marketing department, came up with a prank idea: He decided to make a digital currency out of a dog-head emoticon package to satirize the rising speculation atmosphere in the digital currency circle at that time. He then tweeted:  This idea attracted the attention of Marcus, a software engineer working at IBM, and the two hit it off and started working on it. Directly copy large sections of the Bitcoin code, and then change BITCOIN to Doge coin, and then the Doge coin design is completed. The whole journey took less than three hours:  In addition, they also made some interesting changes in order to keep the spoof to the end. For example, change the font to the same comic format as the emoticon package, and change "mine" to "dig" because dogs generally dig holes.  It can be seen that this "Dogecoin" appeared as a spoof to satirize the virtual Huobi. Its founder probably never thought that this thing was a real asset, but just thought it was fun. In their own words, "This is a joke that's bound to die out." However, such a fun thing has been pushed to the throne in the new round of currency frenzy. As ELON MUSK calls out orders on Twitter one after another, expressing his optimism for Dogecoin, Dogecoin is like sitting on a rocket, directly "flying to the moon":  As of yesterday, Dogecoin’s market capitalization exceeded $80 billion. You must know that the market value of the entire General Motors is only 80 billion US dollars, and the market value of Dogecoin has caught up with the largest automaker in the United States. A counterfeit currency whose original intention was to satirize Bitcoin has instead become a popular object and been held to the moon, making countless people pursue and go crazy. This undoubtedly brings the satirical art of Dogecoin to its climax. Of course, Dogecoin is a thing of the past. The real big star these days is no longer Dogecoin, but SHIBA COIN (Shiba Inu coin), which we call "shib". Its K-line looks like this:  It increased more than 11,000 times in one year, 264 times in one month, and 7 times in one week. Then this coin is even more exaggerated, because it has issued 1,000 trillion coins. Although many of them have been given to V God by them, and many have been invalidated, there are still 394 trillion coins circulating in the market:  If DOGE COIN satirizes Bitcoin but became popular, then SHIBA INU is basically a coin that became popular due to the popularity of Musk and DOGE coins. For example, the day before yesterday, Musk said that he wanted to keep a Shiba (Shiba Inu) as a pet:  The SHIBA team immediately replied below saying that they actually want SHIBA coins to skyrocket. He has a bad habit of not speaking directly. Then SHIB started a new round of skyrocketing...  What else can I say? Faced with this kind of market situation, veterans can only drink soup, and novices who don’t know anything can eat meat:  Yesterday afternoon, another blogger shared in real time online how the shib he bought for 3,000 yuan turned into 5,000, 7,500, and 9,600.  Then 60,000...70,000...  Ten times a day, what more can I ask for? These were bought after Musk placed the order. As for those who bought these coins by mistake before he placed the order, they became rich overnight as if they had won the lottery.   In the face of such operations, any prediction, analysis, or valuation is meaningless. Developing technology and learning knowledge have become useless. Anyway, as long as Musk orders the orders. So much so that now everyone is predicting what kind of virtual currency Musk likes. Some people say that if you look at him calling doge first and then shiba (Shiba Inu), it is obvious that he likes dogs. Next we should buy other dog coins, such as golden retriever, German Shepherd, Border Collie coins...  Some people also say that this is wrong. Both dogs and Shiba Inu are popular emoticons on the Internet, so he does not like dogs in essence, but likes emoticons. The next thing we should send out should be "Black Question Mark Coin"”  Or "Fake Smiling Boy Coin."  In any case, this is far from the finance we know. 03 People in the industry think that real estate speculators are just leeks, and real estate is not that valuable. Real estate speculators think that stock speculators are all leeks and corporate securities are bubbles. Stock speculators think that currency speculators are all lunatics, and financial products that are not linked to actual performance are completely zero-sum Ponzi schemes. People who buy coins with upper limits like BTC and ETH think that people who buy junk coins with almost unlimited issuance like DOGE and SHIBA are idiots. Do you also buy unlimited issuance? Just rely on consensus and new leeks? Then DOGE currency and SHIBA currency increased by a hundred times, a thousand times, and ten thousand times, telling the world that financial ups and downs really only require consensus. You don’t need to have any value, or you don’t need to have any secrets behind your back. As long as enough people believe that you are valuable, you are valuable. In fact, speaking more broadly, isn't our entire world based on consensus? To put it more broadly, this is true for stocks, bonds, and real estate. Speaking more broadly, money is like this, reputation is like this, and power is like this - the most powerful person in the world does not have three heads and six arms. It is only because everyone believes that he is powerful that he becomes powerful. What is power? In the American TV series "Game of Thrones", the Minister of Intelligence once asked the little devil to guess a riddle, saying that if there are three big figures, a king, a bishop, and a wealthy businessman in a room, and there is a swordsman in the middle, and they all ask this swordsman to kill the other two people, then who will the swordsman kill? The little devil said it depends on what the swordsman believes in. So Varys concluded, if the swordsman's faith is the key factor, why do we still think that the king holds the highest power? “Power exists when people believe it exists. It's a trick like floating shadows on a wall. A very small person can cast a very large shadow. ” In a place where everyone thinks the king is supreme, the king really is supreme. In a place where everyone believes in God, the bishop, as the spokesman of God, has supreme power. In a commercial country, wealthy businessmen can buy everything. But if there is chaos and no order, and everyone only believes in themselves, then the swordsman with the sword in his hand is the most awesome one. Power doesn’t just depend on what you have, it’s more about people’s hearts and what they believe.  They are all absurd, they are all bubbles, they are all Ponzi schemes. But what else to do but embrace the bubble? This afternoon, Musk gave a speech. Just because he said, "The Mother's Day gift I prepared for my mother was not Dogecoin, so Dogecoin plummeted, and countless people lost their money."  It can be regarded as a magical scene. Now, many people will dig out this screenshot from 2011 and use it to punish the comments made at that time.  In fact, this comment is absolutely correct. The so-called Bitcoin is a scam, and those who advocate Bitcoin are liars. But in fact, the whole world is a big scam. As long as enough people believe it, the scam becomes a "consensus", and the "consensus" will turn into a rocket, sending people soaring into the sky and reaching the moon. -END-The content of this article is from a reprint and does not represent the views of Odd and Even Studio  |
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