Will the market value of Bitcoin exceed that of gold?

Nakamoto 2025-10-24 11:01 48852人围观 BTC

Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder of Binance Exchange, published an article on the X platform saying that the value of Bitcoin will definitely exceed gold in the future. At the time of posting, Bitcoin’s market capitalization was approximately $2.2 trillion,

If the price of gold remains unchanged in the future, the unit price of Bitcoin would need to rise to approximately US$1.5 million before its market value could surpass gold.

I make no judgment on this prediction. The essence of investment is often a game where buyers and sellers talk to each other "silly" and then leave the results to be verified by time.

Ten years ago, when gold was priced at 200 yuan per gram, few people could have predicted that it would exceed 1,000 yuan.； Sixteen years ago, Bitcoin was just a toy for technology geeks. Who would have thought that the price would now reach $100,000?

Today, we only compare gold and Bitcoin from a factual perspective without making value judgments.

1. Physical stock

As of the end of 2024, the total amount of gold mined on the earth is approximately 216,200 tons, and the world’s proven underground gold reserves are approximately 54,000 tons.

The total number of Bitcoins is written in the code: about 21 million, which will neither increase nor decrease.

By the way, I saw a comment today that gave me a headache: "Bitcoin can be divided into infinite subdivisions, so it is also infinite. ”

There is no conflict between the fact that the number of Bitcoins is limited and the number of divisible units is theoretically unlimited. Just like 1 gram of gold can be divided into 100,000 parts, it is still 1 gram of gold. The earth's gold reserves will not increase 100,000 times because 1g of gold can be divided into 100,000 parts.

2. Distribution of holders

According to data from the World Gold Council, as of the end of 2024, of the 216,200 tons of gold that had been mined:

- Jewelry accounts for 45%；

- Gold bars, gold coins and ETFs account for 22%；

- Central bank reserves account for 17%；

- Other uses (such as industry, etc.) account for 15%.

Since 2010, the proportion of central bank gold reserves has gradually increased from 10%, mainly driven by geopolitical risks, US dollar credit concerns, inflationary pressure and the trend of de-dollarization. In 2024, for the first time, the value of gold held by global central banks will exceed the value of their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds.

The holding structure of Bitcoin is different:

- Individuals hold 55.7% of the total existing Bitcoins, of which Satoshi Nakamoto alone accounts for approximately 5%；

- Issued Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock, Grayscale, etc.) hold 4.8%.

Participation from institutions, ETFs, and national levels is the key driving force behind CZ’s belief that Bitcoin will rise to $1 million.

3. Historical Consensus

The history of gold runs throughout human civilization. Archaeologists have discovered traces of gold in caves from the Paleolithic Age (about 40,000 BC). For a long time, gold was used as currency around the world. Its unique and bright luster is still popular in the field of jewelry.

Bitcoin has only gone through 16 years since its birth in 2009. It really came into public view in 2013 - that year, the market value of Bitcoin exceeded 20 billion US dollars for the first time, and the price of one Bitcoin exceeded the price of 1 ounce of gold for the first time. Even though the market value of Bitcoin is now as high as two trillion US dollars, there are still many people who do not understand it and even think it is a huge speculative scam.

Marx once said, “Value is the undifferentiated human labor condensed in commodities. ”But whether it’s gold or Bitcoin, their current prices far exceed their mining costs or the cost of electricity for mining. So what exactly is underpinning its price?

I think that's the consensus.

The consensus on gold is based on thousands of years of cultural accumulation and the credit endorsement of global central banks.； Bitcoin's consensus is built on cryptography, decentralized networks and community beliefs. Although the forms are different, the essence is the same: they all generate value because they are widely trusted and accepted. Once this consensus is lost, they return to their original physical or code state, and their value dissipates.

4. Replicability

If gold or Bitcoin could be easily copied, their value would cease to exist.

Gold comes from high-energy cosmic events such as supernova explosions, neutron star mergers, and magnetic giant flares. Among them, neutron star mergers are the main force in producing gold. The gold produced by a neutron star merger may be equivalent to the mass of several Earths, but such events are extremely rare on the scale of human history, occurring only about once every 10,000 to 100,000 years. Even if it happens, we won’t be able to mine gold outside of Earth with current technology.

So, is artificial gold feasible?

The answer is that it's technically possible, but it has no economic value. First of all, the manufacturing cost is extremely high, requiring the use of particle accelerators, which consume huge amounts of money and energy, and the cost is far beyond the market price. ； Secondly, the output is extremely low and time-consuming. The gold produced in the laboratory is counted in atoms. It takes a long time to synthesize 1 gram of gold. ； In addition, most of the gold isotopes produced through nuclear reactions are unstable gold isotopes. To synthesize gold in a stable form, the conditions are more stringent.

In contrast, Bitcoin can technically be copied. Anyone can announce the development of a new blockchain and also issue a "Bitcoin". The problem is, if there are no participants, no community to maintain it, and no one believes in it, it is worthless. It is technically not difficult to copy Bitcoin, but the consensus behind it cannot be copied.

A bigger concern for cryptographically protected Bitcoin is whether it can be hacked. If the private key can no longer protect the asset, the value of Bitcoin will return to zero. We have previously explained in the article "Getting Started with Bitcoin, One Article Is Enough" why it is not feasible to crack the Bitcoin private key under the current technical conditions.

Neither gold nor Bitcoin can be effectively copied or cracked under current technical conditions, but they are also facing potential technical critical points. If aerospace technology achieves leapfrog development in the future and mankind enters the era of interstellar civilization, gold may become a cheap toy. ； For Bitcoin, every technological breakthrough in quantum computers in the future may have a direct impact on its value.

I can't tell whether Bitcoin's market capitalization will surpass gold in the future. Just for the record, wait for time to reveal the answer.

In any asset, there are people who chase it higher because of FOMO (Fear of Missing out), and there are also people who are bearish because of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt).

I remember that around 2017, I attended an investment seminar. The speaker said that he continued to be optimistic about LeTV and was ready to continue to increase his position - even though Jia Yueting had already left overseas by then, and "returning to China next week" had become a joke. I wonder how that teacher is doing now. Of course he can always trust Boss Jia without any problem. As long as you can bear the consequences, any investment decision is correct.

As a veteran of the cryptocurrency industry, CZ must advocate for his industry, which is understandable.

As for individuals, you can choose to believe it or not. It’s enough to do your research and be responsible for your wallet.