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Opinions on the ETH market on October 23, personal opinions are for reference only The current ETH daily chart shows a clear "short arrangement" feature: MA5 (3660.59), MA10 (3712.84), MA30 (3820.15) diverge downward in sequence, and the price has been running below all short-term moving averages for 3 consecutive trading days. More importantly, the weekly level MACD indicator formed a second dead cross below the 0 axis. Historical retrospection shows that after this signal appears, ETH will often see at least 15% of correction space, further supporting the core view of "bearish near 4000", and leverage liquidation amplifying short kinetic energy. This range was exactly the "bull defense line" agreed upon by the market in the early stage. Now the collapse of the defense line has led to the release of short-term selling pressure, which not only caused the price to quickly drop to $3645.02, but also caused the market sentiment to turn to extreme caution, making it difficult to rebound in the short term. $4,000 is not only an integer psychological mark, but also a double suppression area between the upper limit of the daily Bollinger Band and the 120-day moving average ($4,074). From the perspective of volume, there has been an obvious "high volume and stagflation" phenomenon when it rebounded to the $3950-4000 range recently. Each time it touches this range, the selling volume can increase by more than 30% compared with the previous trading day, indicating that short sellers have a strong willingness to sell in this area, further verifying the rationality of "short selling near 4000". Support: $3,720 becomes the short-term "life and death line"” Based on the current pattern, it is recommended that when the price rebounds to around 4000, the stop loss is strictly set at 4150, with the first target looking at $3650. If it falls below, it can go further down to $3520. Two risks need to be focused on: First, changes in institutional funds. If institutions such as BlackRock increase their holdings of ETFs in the short term, it may trigger a short-term rebound.； The second is the impact of macro news. If the Federal Reserve releases a signal to cut interest rates, it may change the short-term trend of cryptocurrency. If the price unexpectedly breaks through $3,950 and stabilizes, you need to stop the loss and exit the market in time to avoid greater losses on the short position. |
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