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10.23|BTC/ETH daily market analysis

Vitalik 2025-10-24 14:28 36921人围观 ETH

The market entered a weak recovery stage after experiencing a sharp decline, and the long and short sides fell into a confrontation in front of key positions. The details of BTC and ETH will be explained below. (Today's market analysis) Today's market ana


After experiencing a sharp decline, the market entered a weak recovery stage, and the long and short sides fell into a confrontation in front of key positions. The details of BTC and ETH will be explained below.

(Today’s market analysis)

Today's market analysis

2025.10.23



BTC

Current price: $108,400



Intraday analysis

1️⃣ Structural interpretation

During the current weak rebound, we continue to pay attention to the 109,000-110,000 range. The current trend is subtle and not very volatile, but it makes people very nervous. The current narrow range is the calm after the storm, gathering energy for the next wave of directional choices. Before the price effectively breaks through this range, we default that it will remain weak and volatile.

2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics


  • Capital flow (market "blood transfusion" situation): ETF inflows ended and turned into net outflows, superimposed on the outflow of funds from institutional platforms, indicating that the short-term attitude of big funds has turned cautious and the market is "bleeding", which directly restricts the height of the rebound.

  • On-chain data (trends of big players’ “truck cards”): Long-term holders are taking profits, which is a healthy change of chips, but will increase selling pressure from above.; Fortunately, the exchange balance did not surge, indicating that there was no chain reaction of panic selling.

  • Exchange dynamics (market "sentiment" thermometer): The turning negative of funding rates clearly indicates that short-term sentiment has turned from bullish to bearish.; The decline in the leverage ratio is a good thing, which means that the "bubbles" and risks in the market have been partially discharged, and the trend will be healthier.


💬Key points: The data overall points to short-term weakness, but it has not worsened to the level of panic, providing a fundamental explanation for the range-bound fluctuations in technology.

3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day

Pay attention to the specific trends in the long-short conversion zone. You can operate around the long-short transition zone. The rebound here seems very difficult and unable to go up. You can consider taking a short position to test the short position. Today is not the time to attack aggressively, be patient and wait for the opportunity like a hunter. If you don’t have any ideas for trading by yourself and are worried, you can chat together in the live broadcast room at night.

4️⃣ Risk warning

  1. Continuing risks of ETF capital flows: The capital flow data released tomorrow is the core weather vane of the market. If the net outflow continues, it will confirm the short-term bearish view of institutions and may directly suppress the price below the current shock range.

  2. “The trap of "false breakthrough": At the end of a volatile market, the market often experiences upward or downward false breakthroughs, specifically cleaning stop loss orders. Be sure to wait for the closing price of the K-line to confirm that the breakthrough is valid, rather than chasing the rise and killing the fall.

  3. Associated risks of the macro environment: Pay close attention to the performance of U.S. stocks (especially technology stocks) and global geopolitical news. If the external market falls sharply, Bitcoin will not be able to survive alone. Its safe-haven properties may fail in the short term, and it will instead follow the decline of risk assets.



[For reference only, not as investment advice]



ETH

Current price: $3827.04



Intraday analysis

1️⃣ Structural interpretation

ETH was also very positive for the dip. The bulls are temporarily unstable in military morale and their energy is not concentrated enough. The more this happens, our air force should take advantage of his illness to kill him. The structure of ETH is weaker than that of BTC, and $3,920 is the lifeline for judging the strength transition. All orders should be centered around this core position.

2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics

  • Capital flow: ETF outflows and stable currency reserves coexist smoothly, indicating that buying power is insufficient, but panic selling pressure has not appeared, and the market is waiting for direction.

  • Data on the chain: The stability of the ecological lock-up is the "ballast stone", and the giant whale's bargain hunting is a positive signal, indicating that long-term value investors think this price is attractive.

  • Exchange dynamics: The funding rate is more negative & there is a dense liquidation area below. The combination of the two means that increased volatility is a high probability event. Any directional choice may be amplified by leverage liquidation.


💬Key points: ETH’s fundamentals present a contradiction between “short-term pessimism” and “long-term optimism”, which usually heralds the coming of high volatility.

3️⃣ Ideas for placing orders within the day

ETH is generally more volatile and riskier than BTC. It is best for newbies to watch more and move less today. Today we still focus on the 3920 area. The rebound cannot be effective above, so the weak pattern remains unchanged and we can consider following the trend. If the price can stably recover above the 3920 area, it may attract a group of rebounding funds to enter the market. At that time, you can pay attention to short-term and long-term opportunities.

4️⃣ Risk warning

  1. High volatility liquidation risk: This is the primary risk for ETH at the moment. Because there is a lot of long leverage below, a small decline may trigger a series of liquidations, leading to a price "flash crash." Therefore, all positions must have stop loss protection and positions need to be lighter than usual.

  2. BTC’s co-movement risk: The cryptocurrency market is dominated by BTC. If BTC fails to hold the support of $109,000 and chooses to move downwards, ETH will almost undoubtedly be dragged downwards, and its pressure level of 3920 will become stronger.

  3. Ecological negative risks: You need to pay attention to whether the Ethereum network itself has negative news (such as regulatory negative news for DeFi/pledge, major technical failures, etc.), which will cause an independent blow to the ETH price independent of the broader market.



[For reference only, not as investment advice]

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Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the personal views of Mr. Fengshen and does not constitute specific operational recommendations. If you operate based on this, you are responsible for your profits and losses. Investments are risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.



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